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Relative personal votes estim. by HoR-Sen vote 2013, all major parties - Vic

 Oz NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT
rk Name Seat (margin) AEC geo HoR vote Sen vote Diff Adjusted 2pp vote Swing 2pp
1 Clare O'Neil (ALP) vacant seat Hotham (7.3) Outer Metro 47.1 39.0 8.1 4.5 57.3 -5.7
2 Catherine King (ALP) (sitting MP) Ballarat (4.9) Provincial 41.9 34.3 7.6 4.0 54.9 -7.2
3 Jenny Macklin (ALP) (sitting MP) Jagajaga (3.1) Outer Metro 38.0 30.6 7.4 3.8 53.1 -8.1
4 Anna Burke (ALP) (sitting MP) Chisholm (1.6) Inner Metro 39.5 32.3 7.2 3.6 51.6 -3.6
5 Kelvin Thomson (ALP) (sitting MP) Wills (15.2) Inner Metro 45.1 38.8 6.4 2.8 0.0 NA
6 Andrew Broad (Nat )/ Chris Crewther (Lib) vacant seat Mallee (6.2) Rural 66.0 57.5 8.5 2.8 0.0 NA
7 Kevin Andrews (LP) (sitting MP) Menzies (14.5) Outer Metro 58.9 53.4 5.5 2.6 64.5 5.2
8 Greg Bickley (Lib )/ Sarah Sheedy (Nat) vacant seat Bendigo (1.3) Provincial 44.7 39.2 5.5 2.6 48.7 7.9
9 Alan Tudge (LP) (sitting MP) Aston (8.2) Outer Metro 51.6 46.3 5.3 2.4 58.2 7.3
10 Michael Danby (ALP) (sitting MP) Melbourne Ports (3.6) Inner Metro 31.7 25.9 5.8 2.2 53.6 -2.6
11 Michael Barling (ALP) Wannon (10.1) Rural 29.5 26.3 3.2 2.1 39.9 -4.2
12 Greg Hunt (LP) (sitting MP) Flinders (11.8) Rural 55.3 47.6 7.7 2.0 61.8 2.1
13 Tony Smith (LP) (sitting MP) Casey (7.2) Outer Metro 49.2 44.5 4.7 1.8 57.2 4.9
14 Sarah Henderson (Lib )/ Andrew Black (Nat) Corangamite (3.9) [ch13] Provincial 48.9 44.3 4.6 1.7 53.9 4.1
15 Rob Mitchell (ALP) (sitting MP) McEwen (0.2) Rural 37.6 34.9 2.8 1.7 50.2 -9.1
16 Josh Frydenberg (LP) (sitting MP) Kooyong (11.1) Inner Metro 55.7 51.2 4.5 1.6 61.1 3.0
17 Kelly O'Dwyer (LP) (sitting MP) Higgins (9.9) Inner Metro 54.4 49.8 4.5 1.6 59.9 4.5
18 Bruce Billson (LP) (sitting MP) Dunkley (5.6) Outer Metro 48.8 44.4 4.4 1.5 55.6 3.7
19 Sharman Stone (LP) (sitting MP) Murray (20.9) Rural 61.4 54.4 7.0 1.3 70.9 1.5
20 Andrew Robb (LP) (sitting MP) Goldstein (11.0) Inner Metro 56.5 52.8 3.7 0.8 61.0 4.5
21 Bill Shorten (ALP) (sitting MP) Maribyrnong (11.4) Outer Metro 47.9 43.5 4.4 0.8 61.4 -5.5
22 Darren Chester (NP) (sitting MP) Gippsland (15.8) Rural 53.8 47.4 6.4 0.7 65.8 4.8
23 Mark Dreyfus (ALP) (sitting MP) Isaacs (3.8) Outer Metro 41.3 37.0 4.3 0.7 53.8 -6.4
24 Alan Griffin (ALP) (sitting MP) Bruce (1.8) Outer Metro 41.9 37.7 4.2 0.6 51.8 -5.8
25 Tim Watts (ALP) vacant seat Gellibrand (16.5) Inner Metro 46.0 42.0 4.1 0.5 66.5 -6.8
26 Andrew Giles (ALP) vacant seat Scullin (14.4) Outer Metro 50.3 46.4 3.9 0.3 64.4 -5.4
27 Lisa Chesters (ALP) vacant seat Bendigo (1.3) Provincial 36.6 32.8 3.7 0.1 51.3 -7.9
28 Jason Wood (LP) La Trobe (4.0) [ch13] Outer Metro 46.1 43.1 2.9 0.0 54.0 5.1
29 Anthony Byrne (ALP) (sitting MP) Holt (9.1) Outer Metro 48.2 44.8 3.4 -0.2 59.1 -4.1
30 Mike Symon (ALP) (sitting MP) Deakin (3.2) [ch13] Outer Metro 32.7 29.3 3.4 -0.2 46.8 -3.3
31 Richard Marles (ALP) (sitting MP) Corio (7.8) Provincial 43.5 40.2 3.3 -0.3 57.8 -5.4
32 Darren Cheeseman (ALP) (sitting MP) Corangamite (3.9) [ch13] Provincial 32.0 28.9 3.1 -0.5 46.1 -4.1
33 Daniel Guttmann (ALP) Goldstein (11.0) Inner Metro 23.8 20.8 3.1 -0.5 39.0 -4.5
34 Dan Tehan (LP) (sitting MP) Wannon (10.1) Rural 53.7 48.8 5.0 -0.7 60.1 4.2
35 Nick McGowan (LP) Jagajaga (3.1) Outer Metro 41.9 39.7 2.2 -0.7 46.9 8.1
36 Emanuele Cicchiello (LP) Bruce (1.8) Outer Metro 43.0 40.7 2.2 -0.7 48.2 5.8
37 Russell Broadbent (LP) (sitting MP) McMillan (11.9) Rural 50.4 45.5 4.9 -0.8 61.9 7.9
38 Michael Sukkar (LP) Deakin (3.2) [ch13] Outer Metro 45.9 43.8 2.1 -0.8 53.2 3.3
39 Laura Smyth (ALP) (sitting MP) La Trobe (4.0) [ch13] Outer Metro 32.1 29.6 2.5 -1.1 46.0 -5.1
40 David Feeney (ALP) vacant seat Batman (10.6) Inner Metro 41.6 39.2 2.4 -1.2 0.0 NA
41 Wesa Chau (ALP) Higgins (9.9) Inner Metro 24.1 21.8 2.3 -1.3 40.1 -4.5
42 John Fitzgibbon (LP) Ballarat (4.9) Provincial 38.0 36.5 1.5 -1.4 45.1 7.2
43 Joshua Sinclair (ALP) Flinders (11.8) Rural 25.2 25.5 -0.3 -1.4 38.2 -2.1
44 Peter Read (LP) Corio (7.8) Provincial 35.2 33.8 1.4 -1.5 42.3 5.4
45 Rupert Evans (ALP) Aston (8.2) Outer Metro 32.6 30.6 2.1 -1.5 41.8 -7.3
46 David McConnell (LP) vacant seat Gellibrand (16.5) Inner Metro 26.7 25.4 1.3 -1.6 33.5 6.8
47 Maria Vamvakinou (ALP) (sitting MP) Calwell (13.8) Outer Metro 49.8 47.9 1.9 -1.7 63.8 -5.9
48 John Nguyen (LP) Chisholm (1.6) Inner Metro 44.1 42.9 1.2 -1.7 48.4 3.6
49 Garry Spencer (LP) Isaacs (3.8) Outer Metro 40.2 39.0 1.2 -1.7 46.2 6.4
50 Cathy Farrell (ALP) Casey (7.2) Outer Metro 27.9 25.9 1.9 -1.7 42.8 -4.9
51 John Kennedy (ALP) Kooyong (11.1) Inner Metro 22.4 20.6 1.8 -1.8 38.9 -3.0
52 Sonya Kilkenny (ALP) Dunkley (5.6) Outer Metro 30.9 29.3 1.6 -2.0 44.4 -3.7
53 Rod Higgins (ALP) Murray (20.9) Rural 20.7 21.7 -0.9 -2.0 29.1 -1.5
54 Ricardo Balancy (LP) Holt (9.1) Outer Metro 32.6 31.9 0.7 -2.2 40.9 4.1
55 Joanne Ryan (ALP) vacant seat Lalor (12.2) Outer Metro 45.2 43.9 1.3 -2.3 62.2 -9.7
56 Lydia Senior (ALP) vacant seat Mallee (6.2) Rural 17.5 18.8 -1.3 -2.4 0.0 NA
57 Fazal Cader (LP) vacant seat Hotham (7.3) Outer Metro 37.1 36.8 0.4 -2.5 42.7 5.7
58 Ted Hatzakortzian (LP) Maribyrnong (11.4) Outer Metro 33.0 32.7 0.4 -2.5 38.6 5.5
59 George Souris (LP) vacant seat Batman (10.6) Inner Metro 22.7 22.3 0.4 -2.5 0.0 NA
60 Anthony Naus (ALP) McMillan (11.9) Rural 25.1 26.5 -1.5 -2.6 38.1 -7.9
61 Brendan O'Connor (ALP) (sitting MP) Gorton (16.1) Outer Metro 50.7 49.9 0.9 -2.7 66.1 -6.9
62 Manoj Kumar (ALP) Menzies (14.5) Outer Metro 25.7 24.8 0.9 -2.7 35.6 -5.2
63 Phil Humphreys (LP) Gorton (16.1) Outer Metro 25.5 25.3 0.2 -2.7 33.9 6.9
64 Jag Chugha (LP) vacant seat Scullin (14.4) Outer Metro 29.1 29.3 -0.1 -3.0 35.7 5.4
65 Ali Khan (LP) Calwell (13.8) Outer Metro 28.5 28.7 -0.2 -3.1 36.2 5.9
66 Nihal Samara (LP) vacant seat Lalor (12.2) Outer Metro 29.3 29.8 -0.5 -3.4 37.8 9.7
67 Kevin Ekendahl (LP) Melbourne Ports (3.6) Inner Metro 41.1 41.7 -0.7 -3.6 46.4 2.6
68 Donna Petrovich (LP) McEwen (0.2) Rural 40.3 38.4 2.0 -3.7 49.9 9.1
69 Shilpa Hegde (LP) Wills (15.2) Inner Metro 22.8 23.9 -1.1 -4.0 0.0 NA
70 Jeff McNeill (ALP) Gippsland (15.8) Rural 23.2 26.2 -3.0 -4.1 34.2 -4.8
71 Sean Armistead (LP) Melbourne (5.3) Inner Metro 23.1 24.9 -1.7 -4.6 0.0 NA
72 Cath Bowtell (ALP) Melbourne (5.3) Inner Metro 27.0 29.4 -2.4 -6.0 0.0 NA
73 Sophie Mirabella (LP) (sitting MP) Indi (0.3) Rural 44.7 48.6 -3.9 -9.6 0.0 NA
74 Robyn Walsh (ALP) Indi (0.3) Rural 11.7 23.0 -11.3 -12.4 0.0 NA
Adjusted column is the "diff" figure minus (the average of the average of sitting MPs in that region and the average of non-sitting MPs in that region for that party). Region is by state, AEC rural versus non-rural. Non-major party seats are excluded from the average calculation.
On current 2013 boundaries. AEC geographic categories rural, provincial, outer metropolitan, inner metropolitan. Margins for non-major party MPs are two-candidate preferred; swings all two-party-preferred, positive to ALP, negative to Coalition. [ch13] indicates seat changed hands at 2013 election, - is Labor to Coalition, + Coalition to Labor, O Labor to Greens or Independent.