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Relative personal votes estim. by HoR-Sen vote 2013, all major parties - NSW

Oz NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT
rk Name Seat (margin) AEC geo HoR vote Sen vote Diff Adjusted 2pp vote Swing 2pp
1 Tanya Plibersek (ALP) (sitting MP) Sydney (14.7) Inner Metro 46.0 33.1 13.0 9.1 64.7 -1.7
2 Malcolm Turnbull (LP) (sitting MP) Wentworth (17.7) Inner Metro 63.3 42.2 21.2 8.6 67.7 2.4
3 Mark Coulton (NP) (sitting MP) Parkes (22.4) Rural 64.0 40.1 23.9 7.8 72.4 2.8
4 Mike Kelly (ALP) (sitting MP) Eden-Monaro (0.6) [ch13] Rural 38.8 29.3 9.5 6.3 49.4 -4.7
5 Janelle Saffin (ALP) (sitting MP) Page (2.5) [ch13] Rural 38.8 29.7 9.1 5.9 47.5 -6.9
6 Anthony Albanese (ALP) (sitting MP) Grayndler (20.3) Inner Metro 47.2 37.5 9.7 5.8 70.3 0.3
7 Michelle Rowland (ALP) (sitting MP) Greenway (3.0) Outer Metro 44.5 35.9 8.6 4.7 53.0 2.9
8 Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP) (sitting MP) Hunter (3.7) Rural 44.5 36.7 7.8 4.6 53.7 -8.7
9 Sussan Ley (LP) (sitting MP) Farrer (17.4) Rural 57.8 37.5 20.3 4.2 67.4 2.0
10 Chris Bowen (ALP) (sitting MP) McMahon (5.3) Outer Metro 50.2 42.1 8.1 4.2 55.3 -1.9
11 Russell Matheson (LP) (sitting MP) Macarthur (11.4) Outer Metro 54.3 37.9 16.5 3.9 61.4 8.5
12 Jill Hall (ALP) (sitting MP) Shortland (7.2) Provincial 48.7 41.1 7.6 3.7 57.2 -5.8
13 John Cobb (NP) (sitting MP) Calare (16.0) Rural 57.7 37.9 19.7 3.6 66.0 5.3
14 Joe Hockey (LP) (sitting MP) North Sydney (15.9) Inner Metro 61.0 45.3 15.7 3.1 65.9 1.5
15 Bob Baldwin (LP) (sitting MP) Paterson (9.8) Rural 53.9 34.9 19.0 2.9 59.8 4.2
16 Bronwyn Bishop (LP) (sitting MP) Mackellar (18.8) Outer Metro 62.4 47.0 15.4 2.8 68.8 3.1
17 Alex Hawke (LP) (sitting MP) Mitchell (22.1) Outer Metro 65.5 50.2 15.3 2.7 72.1 5.0
18 Jason Clare (ALP) (sitting MP) Blaxland (11.4) Inner Metro 55.7 49.4 6.4 2.5 61.4 0.2
19 Sharon Bird (ALP) (sitting MP) Cunningham (9.9) Provincial 45.5 39.1 6.4 2.5 59.9 -2.9
20 David Bradbury (ALP) (sitting MP) Lindsay (3.0) [ch13] Outer Metro 39.0 32.7 6.3 2.4 47.0 -4.1
21 Craig Kelly (LP) (sitting MP) Hughes (10.7) Outer Metro 54.7 39.8 14.9 2.3 60.7 5.7
22 Chris Hayes (ALP) (sitting MP) Fowler (16.8) Outer Metro 60.8 54.5 6.2 2.3 66.8 9.3
23 Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP) vacant seat Kingsford Smith (2.7) Inner Metro 42.0 35.8 6.2 2.3 52.7 -2.0
24 Pat Conroy (ALP) vacant seat Charlton (9.2) Provincial 46.4 40.6 5.9 2.0 59.2 -3.2
25 Michael McCormack (NP) (sitting MP) Riverina (21.2) Rural 59.2 41.1 18.0 1.9 71.2 3.0
26 Paul Fletcher (LP) (sitting MP) Bradfield (20.8) Inner Metro 64.8 50.5 14.4 1.8 70.8 2.9
27 Tony Abbott (LP) (sitting MP) Warringah (15.4) Inner Metro 60.9 46.7 14.2 1.6 65.4 2.2
28 Susan Templeman (ALP) Macquarie (4.5) Provincial 31.0 25.5 5.5 1.6 45.5 -3.1
29 Justine Elliot (ALP) (sitting MP) Richmond (3.0) Rural 33.5 28.8 4.7 1.5 53.0 -4.0
30 Scott Morrison (LP) (sitting MP) Cook (16.4) Inner Metro 60.4 46.3 14.0 1.4 66.4 4.1
31 Philip Ruddock (LP) (sitting MP) Berowra (19.1) Outer Metro 61.4 47.6 13.9 1.3 69.1 2.8
32 Daryl Melham (ALP) (sitting MP) Banks (1.8) [ch13] Inner Metro 41.0 36.3 4.8 0.9 48.2 -3.4
33 Luke Hartsuyker (NP) (sitting MP) Cowper (11.7) Rural 53.1 36.2 16.9 0.8 61.7 2.5
34 John Murphy (ALP) (sitting MP) Reid (0.9) [ch13] Inner Metro 40.6 36.0 4.6 0.7 49.2 -3.1
35 Ed Husic (ALP) (sitting MP) Chifley (10.6) Outer Metro 52.3 47.9 4.5 0.6 60.6 -1.3
36 Larissa Mallinson (Lib )/ Gary Anderson (Nat) Throsby (7.8) Provincial 38.0 24.9 13.1 0.5 42.2 4.2
37 Tony Burke (ALP) (sitting MP) Watson (6.8) Inner Metro 49.5 45.2 4.3 0.4 56.8 -1.6
38 Ron Delezio (LP) Watson (6.8) Inner Metro 38.7 25.8 13.0 0.4 43.2 1.6
39 John Alexander (LP) (sitting MP) Bennelong (7.8) Inner Metro 53.0 40.2 12.8 0.2 57.8 4.5
40 Neil Reilly (ALP) vacant seat Gilmore (2.7) Rural 35.1 32.1 3.0 -0.2 47.4 2.8
41 Jason Yat-Sen Li (ALP) Bennelong (7.8) Inner Metro 32.5 28.8 3.7 -0.2 42.2 -4.5
42 Sharon Claydon (ALP) vacant seat Newcastle (8.8) Provincial 43.7 40.2 3.5 -0.4 58.8 -3.1
43 Ray King (LP) McMahon (5.3) Outer Metro 40.6 28.4 12.2 -0.4 44.7 1.9
44 Julie Owens (ALP) (sitting MP) Parramatta (0.6) Inner Metro 41.3 37.8 3.5 -0.4 50.6 -3.6
45 David Coleman (LP) Banks (1.8) [ch13] Inner Metro 47.0 34.9 12.1 -0.5 51.8 3.4
46 Barnaby Joyce (NP) vacant seat New England (14.5) [ch13] Rural 54.2 38.9 15.3 -0.8 0.0 NA
47 Michael Feneley (LP) vacant seat Kingsford Smith (2.7) Inner Metro 43.5 31.7 11.8 -0.8 47.3 2.0
48 John Church (LP) Shortland (7.2) Provincial 37.8 26.0 11.8 -0.8 42.8 5.8
49 Craig Laundy (LP) Reid (0.9) [ch13] Inner Metro 47.1 35.4 11.7 -0.9 50.9 3.1
50 Alison Megarrity (ALP) Hughes (10.7) Outer Metro 32.1 29.1 3.0 -0.9 39.3 -5.7
51 Nickolas Varvaris (LP) vacant seat Barton (0.3) [ch13] Inner Metro 42.4 30.7 11.6 -1.0 50.3 6.8
52 Deborah O'Neill (ALP) (sitting MP) Robertson (3.0) [ch13] Provincial 34.8 32.1 2.7 -1.2 47.0 -3.5
53 Martin Zaiter (LP) Parramatta (0.6) Inner Metro 44.3 33.0 11.3 -1.3 49.4 3.6
54 Kent Johns (LP) Werriwa (2.2) Outer Metro 39.7 28.4 11.3 -1.3 47.8 4.0
55 Jaimie Abbott (LP) vacant seat Newcastle (8.8) Provincial 34.7 23.3 11.3 -1.3 41.2 3.1
56 Angus Taylor (LP) vacant seat Hume (11.5) Rural 54.0 39.3 14.7 -1.4 61.5 2.6
57 Louise Markus (LP) (sitting MP) Macquarie (4.5) Provincial 47.4 36.4 11.0 -1.6 54.5 3.1
58 Ann Sudmalis (LP) vacant seat Gilmore (2.7) Rural 46.0 31.6 14.4 -1.7 52.7 -2.8
59 Philip Clifford (LP) Cunningham (9.9) Provincial 33.7 22.8 10.9 -1.7 40.1 2.9
60 Michael Pilbrow (ALP) vacant seat Hume (11.5) Rural 26.1 24.7 1.4 -1.8 38.5 -2.6
61 Peter Scaysbrook (ALP) Cook (16.4) Inner Metro 24.8 22.7 2.1 -1.8 33.7 -4.1
62 Steve McMahon (ALP) vacant seat Barton (0.3) [ch13] Inner Metro 40.4 38.5 2.0 -1.9 49.7 -6.8
63 Jules Zanetti (ALP) Warringah (15.4) Inner Metro 19.3 17.3 2.0 -1.9 34.7 -2.2
64 Fiona Scott (LP) Lindsay (3.0) [ch13] Outer Metro 46.6 36.1 10.6 -2.0 53.0 4.1
65 Laurie Ferguson (ALP) (sitting MP) Werriwa (2.2) Outer Metro 44.1 42.6 1.5 -2.4 52.2 -4.0
66 Isabelle White (LP) Chifley (10.6) Outer Metro 32.2 22.3 9.9 -2.7 39.5 1.3
67 Ian Fulton (ALP) Macarthur (11.4) Outer Metro 30.6 29.6 1.1 -2.8 38.6 -8.5
68 Peter Hendy (LP) Eden-Monaro (0.6) [ch13] Rural 45.3 32.1 13.2 -2.9 50.6 4.7
69 Bay Marshall (ALP) Paterson (9.8) Rural 29.6 29.3 0.3 -2.9 40.2 -4.2
70 Stephen Jones (ALP) (sitting MP) Throsby (7.8) Provincial 45.0 44.1 0.9 -3.0 57.8 -4.2
71 Karen McNamara (LP) vacant seat Dobell (0.7) [ch13] Provincial 41.4 31.9 9.5 -3.1 50.7 5.5
72 Jess Jennings (ALP) Calare (16.0) Rural 25.4 25.5 -0.1 -3.3 34.0 -5.3
73 Emma McBride (ALP) vacant seat Dobell (0.7) [ch13] Provincial 35.1 34.7 0.5 -3.4 49.3 -5.5
74 Chris Hedge (ALP) Mackellar (18.8) Outer Metro 17.2 16.7 0.5 -3.4 31.2 -3.1
75 David Gillespie (NP) vacant seat Lyne (14.8) [ch13] Rural 53.2 40.8 12.4 -3.7 64.8 2.6
76 Andrew Nguyen (LP) Fowler (16.8) Outer Metro 26.8 17.9 8.9 -3.7 33.2 -9.3
77 Kevin Hogan (NP) Page (2.5) [ch13] Rural 46.7 34.3 12.3 -3.8 52.5 6.9
78 Anthony Khouri (LP) Blaxland (11.4) Inner Metro 32.7 23.9 8.8 -3.8 38.6 -0.2
79 Jaymes Diaz (LP) Greenway (3.0) Outer Metro 40.0 31.4 8.7 -3.9 47.0 -2.9
80 Michael Stove (ALP) Berowra (19.1) Outer Metro 18.9 19.0 -0.1 -4.0 30.9 -2.8
81 Andrew Punch (ALP) Mitchell (22.1) Outer Metro 20.5 20.8 -0.3 -4.2 27.9 -5.0
82 Chris Haviland (ALP) Bradfield (20.8) Inner Metro 16.6 16.9 -0.3 -4.2 29.2 -2.9
83 Alfredo Navarro (ALP) Cowper (11.7) Rural 25.4 26.5 -1.1 -4.3 38.3 -2.5
84 Brendan Byron (ALP) Parkes (22.4) Rural 20.8 21.9 -1.1 -4.3 27.7 -2.8
85 Peter Hayes (ALP) North Sydney (15.9) Inner Metro 20.0 20.5 -0.5 -4.4 34.1 -1.5
86 Kevin Baker (LP) vacant seat Charlton (9.2) Provincial 28.5 20.6 8.0 -4.6 40.8 3.2
87 Di Smith (ALP) Wentworth (17.7) Inner Metro 19.4 20.1 -0.7 -4.6 32.3 -2.4
88 Gavin Hickey (ALP) Farrer (17.4) Rural 23.8 25.2 -1.5 -4.7 32.6 -2.0
89 Sean O'Connor (LP) Sydney (14.7) Inner Metro 30.5 22.8 7.7 -4.9 35.4 1.7
90 Lucy Wicks (LP) Robertson (3.0) [ch13] Provincial 43.4 36.2 7.2 -5.4 53.0 3.5
91 Peter Alley (ALP) vacant seat Lyne (14.8) [ch13] Rural 21.3 23.6 -2.3 -5.5 35.2 -2.6
92 Michael Johnsen (NP) Hunter (3.7) Rural 35.1 24.8 10.3 -5.8 46.3 8.7
93 Tim Kurylowicz (ALP) Riverina (21.2) Rural 20.4 23.0 -2.6 -5.8 28.8 -3.0
94 Cedric Spencer (LP) Grayndler (20.3) Inner Metro 24.7 19.0 5.7 -6.9 29.7 -0.3
95 Matthew Fraser (NP) Richmond (3.0) Rural 37.6 30.1 7.5 -8.6 47.0 4.0
96 Stephen Hewitt (ALP) vacant seat New England (14.5) [ch13] Rural 11.9 22.0 -10.1 -13.3 0.0 NA
Adjusted column is the "diff" figure minus (the average of the average of sitting MPs in that region and the average of non-sitting MPs in that region) for that party. Region is by state, AEC rural versus non-rural. Non-major party seats are excluded from the average calculation.
On current 2013 boundaries. AEC geographic categories rural, provincial, outer metropolitan, inner metropolitan. Margins for non-major party MPs are two-candidate preferred; swings all two-party-preferred, positive to ALP, negative to Coalition. [ch13] indicates seat changed hands at 2013 election, - is Labor to Coalition, + Coalition to Labor, O Labor to Greens or Independent.