rk Name Seat (margin) AEC geo HoR vote Sen vote Diff Adjusted 2pp vote Swing 2pp
1
Andrew Broad (Nat )/ Chris Crewther (Lib) vacant seat
Mallee (6.2) Rural
66.0
57.5
8.5
2.8
0.0
NA
2
Greg Bickley (Lib )/ Sarah Sheedy (Nat) vacant seat
Bendigo (1.3) Provincial
44.7
39.2
5.5
2.6
48.7
7.9
3
Sarah Henderson (Lib )/ Andrew Black (Nat)
Corangamite (3.9) [ch13]Provincial
48.9
44.3
4.6
1.7
53.9
4.1
4
Jason Wood (LP)
La Trobe (4.0) [ch13]Outer Metro
46.1
43.1
2.9
0.0
54.0
5.1
5
Nick McGowan (LP)
Jagajaga (3.1) Outer Metro
41.9
39.7
2.2
-0.7
46.9
8.1
6
Emanuele Cicchiello (LP)
Bruce (1.8) Outer Metro
43.0
40.7
2.2
-0.7
48.2
5.8
7
Michael Sukkar (LP)
Deakin (3.2) [ch13]Outer Metro
45.9
43.8
2.1
-0.8
53.2
3.3
8
John Fitzgibbon (LP)
Ballarat (4.9) Provincial
38.0
36.5
1.5
-1.4
45.1
7.2
9
Peter Read (LP)
Corio (7.8) Provincial
35.2
33.8
1.4
-1.5
42.3
5.4
10
David McConnell (LP) vacant seat
Gellibrand (16.5) Inner Metro
26.7
25.4
1.3
-1.6
33.5
6.8
11
John Nguyen (LP)
Chisholm (1.6) Inner Metro
44.1
42.9
1.2
-1.7
48.4
3.6
12
Garry Spencer (LP)
Isaacs (3.8) Outer Metro
40.2
39.0
1.2
-1.7
46.2
6.4
13
Ricardo Balancy (LP)
Holt (9.1) Outer Metro
32.6
31.9
0.7
-2.2
40.9
4.1
14
Fazal Cader (LP) vacant seat
Hotham (7.3) Outer Metro
37.1
36.8
0.4
-2.5
42.7
5.7
15
Ted Hatzakortzian (LP)
Maribyrnong (11.4) Outer Metro
33.0
32.7
0.4
-2.5
38.6
5.5
16
George Souris (LP) vacant seat
Batman (10.6) Inner Metro
22.7
22.3
0.4
-2.5
0.0
NA
17
Phil Humphreys (LP)
Gorton (16.1) Outer Metro
25.5
25.3
0.2
-2.7
33.9
6.9
18
Jag Chugha (LP) vacant seat
Scullin (14.4) Outer Metro
29.1
29.3
-0.1
-3.0
35.7
5.4
19
Ali Khan (LP)
Calwell (13.8) Outer Metro
28.5
28.7
-0.2
-3.1
36.2
5.9
20
Nihal Samara (LP) vacant seat
Lalor (12.2) Outer Metro
29.3
29.8
-0.5
-3.4
37.8
9.7
21
Kevin Ekendahl (LP)
Melbourne Ports (3.6) Inner Metro
41.1
41.7
-0.7
-3.6
46.4
2.6
22
Donna Petrovich (LP)
McEwen (0.2) Rural
40.3
38.4
2.0
-3.7
49.9
9.1
23
Shilpa Hegde (LP)
Wills (15.2) Inner Metro
22.8
23.9
-1.1
-4.0
0.0
NA
24
Sean Armistead (LP)
Melbourne (5.3) Inner Metro
23.1
24.9
-1.7
-4.6
0.0
NA
Adjusted column is the "diff" figure minus (the average of the average of sitting MPs in that region and the average of non-sitting MPs in that region for that party).
Region is by state, AEC rural versus non-rural. Non-major party seats are excluded from the average calculation.
On current 2013 boundaries.
AEC geographic categories rural, provincial, outer metropolitan, inner metropolitan.
Margins for non-major party MPs are two-candidate preferred; swings all two-party-preferred, positive to ALP, negative to Coalition.
[ch13] indicates seat changed hands at 2013 election, - is Labor to Coalition, + Coalition to Labor, O Labor to Greens or Independent.
