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Warning!! This page has a high esoteric rating

Labor needs a much smaller national vote to win than it did in 1998. 

The Labor party will probably win if it gets over 49.5% of the two party preferred vote.

As it turned out, that figure should have been about 50.5%

This thesis can be tested after the election, irrespective of the result, by constructing a pendulum and examining the vote required for a change of government. For instance, the current pendulum, the one going into this election, shows the ALP needing a uniform swing of 0.8% to win government. As I've said, this is nonsense regarding this campaign, but what it does roughly indicate is that at the last election the ALP would have needed 0.8% more to win government.

So I reckon that the results of this election will show the ALP would have needed about 49.5% of national two-party preferred vote to win the election. In other words, they need not a swing to them (although they would  no doubt love one), they just needed to keep the swing to the government down to about 1.5%.

(At the 2004(?) election pundits will use the pendulum from November 10 to predict the "uniform swing" required for government to change hands - and they'll be wrong again.)

The reasons for this, put simply, are two-fold.

1. Labor lost in 1998 by winning a majority of votes but "wasting" many in safe seats. Caused by the GST, this was always is unlikely to be repeated, at least to the same extent.

2. As polls and commentators have told us ad nauseam over the last couple of months, recent developments have seen leaps in the Coalition's support, predominately among "blue collar" and rural voters. The first of these will to an extent be wasted in safe Labor seats, the latter in safe National seats.

 

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