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Predicting the Queensland result 

There be no person alive claiming the Coalition will win the Queensland State election on February 7. But everyone also agrees Labor's margin will shrink. (Typical prognosis: "I think the Coalition will make inroads, but can't see them overhauling Beattie's massive majority")

The boldest predictor, as always, is Malcolm Mackerras, who sees Labor emerging with a 53 to 47 two party preferred vote and a majority slashed from 43 to 15. It is brave in specificity, and in being a closer result than most would imagine.

Antony Green doesn't tend to predict, and reckons two party preferred doesn't make sense in Queensland, but agrees that Beattie with a reduced majority is the most likely outcome. 

The Poll Bludger has intimated about 55 to 45 two party preferred, which, if you plot along the pendulum, would cut Beattie's majority to about 23.

As I come across other predictions I'll put them up here.

My prediction

But here's mine. I reserve the right to make updates over next two weeks, but promise not to cheat and change these numbers.

I'll give a general reasoning, followed by specifics: a Labor primary vote, a two party preferred one and seat majority. Then I'll nominate which seats Labor loses/wins. (These will be linked to Antony Green's seat pages.)

The general

Labor will perform at the higher end of expectations, with the two party preferred gap remaining over 15 percent. I reckon this, firstly, because the opinion polls point to it. Also, Bob Carr in NSW pulled off a big second re-election a year ago and these Labor premiers seem to be following the same script. (Or rather, state voters are.)

Within that template, give Beattie points because he is a vote magnet and superior politician to Carr, but deduct several because of the Cherry and Green OPV stuff at Crikey. 

So Labor's position after preferences will improve in places, but go backwards overall.

The numbers

Labor's primary vote to come in at 49 percent, with two party preferred (for those who believe in it in Queensland) rounding to 58 (so the Coalition has 42).

Labor to lose the seats of Noosa, Burleigh, Charters Towers and Kawana to the Coalition. (After reading Cherry and Green, was going to add Burdekin to this list, but decided against.)

But ALP to pick up Keppel from the Coalition.

So number of Labor seats reduced from 66 to 63, Labor majority trimmed from 43 to 37.

As mentioned, way at the higher end of expectations. A wise person would not make predictions like this - but where would be the fun in that? 

 

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