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Federal pendulum

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

Beazley's Diary
 a possible scenario

opinion polls
the latest

state pendulums
and graphs

socio-demographic pendulums
all new ...

 

The Coalition, not Labor,
must get a swing to win

Learn more about
preferential voting

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Election
wrap-up

Is it 1990 all
over again?

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what the journos will say
  all new ...

Two party preferred and primary vote

 

Which is more important?

Primary votes get barely a mention on this site. This is because it's not particularly important in our preferential voting system as an indicator of support. Nor is it how individual seats are won.

read more on preferential v first past the post voting

This is not to say parties don't need to watch their primary support - they do. Without a decent primary vote candidates don't get into a position of having preferences distributed to them. But we don't have first past the post voting in Australia, we have preferential, so two candidate preferred is the one to look at.

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