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two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
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1949 - 2001

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Newspoll &
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preferential voting

federal election 2001

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Vic election 2002

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Opinion Polls

intro page

This page tracked opinion polls during the 2001 campaign. All that stuff remains further below.

***Survey data reproduced courtesy of NEWSPOLL and The Australian.**

But now in April 2002, as I see similarities between Howard's win last year and Keating's in 1993 (and I'm not alone in this), it might enlighten to track and compare Newspolls.

Keating and Newspoll 1993

  ALP Coalition Democrats Greens
March 13 Election 44.92 44.0 3.74 0.39
  51.4 2pp* 48.6 2pp*    
Newspoll March 19-21 47 41    
Newspoll April 2-4  48 42    
Newspoll June 11-13  45 45    
Newspoll July 9-11  41 50    
Newspoll August 20-22 31 54    

Howard and Newspoll 2001/2002

  ALP Coalition Democrats Greens One Nation
November 10 Election 37.8 43.1 5.4 5.0 4.3
  49.0 2pp* 51.0 2pp*      
Newspoll November 23-25 33 45 5 7 3
Newspoll Dec 14-16 35 44 4 6 2
Newspoll Jan 18-29 34 45 5 4 2
Newspoll Feb 8-10 40 42 3 5 1
Newspoll March 8-10

Newspoll April 5-7

37

40

43

41

4

4

4

4

1

1

* two party preferred, after distribution of preferences. Except for during campaign, Newspoll only records primary votes and doesn't distribute.

A similar beginning for both. The government, having been reelected by a reasonably slim margin, jumps ahead in the opinion polls immediately after the election. In Keating's case it took just three months for the parties to draw even and a further month for the opposition to take a big lead.

Howard also jumped ahead in the aftermath and his support subsequently waned. That Feb 8-10 poll result is probably a winning one for Labor given likely distribution of the minor parties' votes, but in March the Coalition was ahead again. 

Since the April Newspoll, they've been fluctuating. The Coalition has pretty well been in front on primary votes, but with the Greens right up, and One Nation right down, it's a closer contest than might appear.

At last election Labor got three quarters of Green preferences. One Nation - who clocked in at 4 percent - went about 55 to 45 to Coalition.

Most recent Newspoll, published in Oz on September 19, Coalition is on 42 and Labor on 36. Greens are on eight, Dems on 3 and One Nation on one. That's one of the better ones for Coalition; after allocating preferences, the two party preferred situation is probably what it was at November 2001 election - 51 to 49 percent in favour of government. 

Read this Age article.

 

Links below are pre-election.

Beazley's Diary
 a possible scenario

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state pendulums
and graphs

socio-demographic pendulums
all new ...

 

The Coalition, not Labor,
must get a swing to win

Learn more about
preferential voting

want to comment,    
suggest, abuse

Don't talk to me
about primary votes

Is it 1990 all
over again?

Election
wrap-up

what the journos will say
  all new ...

It's Saturday 10 November and Newspoll has Coalition at 53% to 47% while Labor is ahead in the marginals. Yes, you read that right. That can only mean their basket of marginals is too small. Not possible for a party to win with 47 percent of the vote.

Still, as written elsewhere here, very possible for Labor to win with something under 50%.

AC Nielson also has Coalition ahead, at 52 to 48.

My prepare-for-egg-on-face prediction is now locked in at the prediction

 

In previous polls

Morgan poll in the last week of campaign

Wed 7 November: Bulletin's Roy Morgan poll showing Labor ahead 54.5 to 45.5%

What can one say but "bloody hell"? Gary Morgan on AM saying we've been doing this for 60 years we know what we're doing ....

Come election night either Morgan or Newspoll and everyone else is going to look pretty silly. Wouldn't like to place bets on who. Well, insofar as Labor getting 54.5 of two party preferred vote I'd certainly take any odds against that.

go to Morgan and Newspoll at the byelections

Previous poll updates

Most recent development: Newpoll published Tues Nov 6, taken last weekend, gives 51% - 49% to the Coalition. In the current electoral climate, as noted elsewhere on this site, this is almost enough for Labor to win (they  won't need anything like the 51% they got last time). But you would want to see more such movement before considering it a probability, as the opinion polls do historically tend to overstate Labor's vote.

What will Morgan say in tomorrow's Bulletin? Unlike every other poll, they've showed Labor ahead of late. They might turn out to be crazy, but not as crazy as the Bulliten's pollster at the last election, fmr Lib pollster Mark Textor, who was giving the Coalition 8-10% leads in the leadup to October 1998. They were nonsense. 

A Newspoll published in Sunday Telegraph (Nov 4) taken in marginal seats shows Labor slightly ahead. Given that Newspoll has had the Coalition comfortably ahead in every poll in the last few weeks this is significant.

Also watched a guy from Roy Morgan on "Insiders". He says that the major parties' primary votes are neck-and-neck and distribution of preferences are favouring Labour. The last part is true, but to put the primary votes at similar levels is ludicrous. With One Nation all but gone, the Coalition's primary support must be leaps ahead of Labour, otherwise we're in for a Labor landslide.

(Labor should get 70- 80% of Green and Democrat preferences, perhaps more)

 It makes you wonder about Morgan's polling ability.

 

Morgan v Newspoll

Who's better?

They're all over the shop.

The Morgan and Newspoll polls, both taken last weekend (Oct 26-28) , tell very different stories.

Morgan has Labor ahead 52.5 to 47.5, Newspoll has the Coalition powering it in with 54 to 46.

Who is more accurate?

Newspoll is probably the best regarded poll among the punting-class. Gary Morgan claims his  is superior because most are conducted  face-to-face, which elicits a more honest response. Newspoll's Sol Lebovic reckons phone polling is better as you get more responses and therefore a better cross-section. In particular Lebovic infers Morgan doesn't get enough data in country areas, greatly under-estimating National Party support. 

Who is better, Morgan or Newspoll?

Ryan, Aston and October 1998

A tale of three elections

First, a word of warning. The figures below are taken from the archives of the websites of Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll. As such they are dependent on the accuracy of these.

I. Ryan byelection (17 March 2001)

Morgan poll, taken on ..

 

March3/4 
 47.5 to Coalition, 52.5 to Labor

Newspoll poll, taken on ..

March 6/7
42 to Coalition 58 to Labor

March 14/15
42 to Coalition 58 to Labor

 

Actual result Coalition 49.8        Labor 50.2     

Better predictor: Morgan

 

II. Aston byelection (14 July 2001)

Morgan poll, taken on ...

March3/4 
50 to Coalition, 50 to Labor

Newspoll poll, taken on ...

July 6/8
48 to Coalition, 52 to Labor

 

Actual result Coalition 50.6    Labor 49.4

Better predictor: Morgan

1998 Election

Note: Newspoll results incomplete at this stage.

Morgan Poll results  1998                                                     Newspoll results 1998

Taken on ... Coalition Labor Taken on ... Coalition Labor

August 15/16, 1998
August 22/23
August 29/30
September 5/6
 September 12/13      
 September 19/20       
 September 26/27       
September 30/October 1 +          
 October 3 Election Day +
      

45.5 
45.5  
44.5
 
46.5
45 
44.5
48 
49.5
   
50  


54.5
54.5
55.5
 
53.5
55
55.5
52
50.5

50







Sept 22-23

This is the only poll on Newspoll's website which gives two party preferred figures. Will try to get others. 






48





52

Actual result Coalition 49    Labor 51

Better predictor: ? Can't say from this lot. Will try to get more Newspoll results.

 

Conclusion

Roy Morgan polls were more accurate at the byelections, estimating a lower Labor vote than Newspoll at what were both very close results.

That both polls overestimated the Labor vote at the byelections this year must send a shiver up Labor's spine in this campaign.

And the polls for this election

III. Federal Election November 2001

Morgan Poll results  2001                                                       Newspoll results 2001

  Coalition Labor Coalition Labor

September 15/16
September 22/23
August 29/30&
October 6/7
 October 13/14      
 October 20/21       
 October 27/28       

49 
49  

50
55 
48.5
47.5 
51
51

 
50
45
51.5
52.5



October 5-7
October 12-14
October 19-21
October 26-28



56.5
55.5
52
54



43.5
44.5
48
46

Actual result Coalition ??.?    Labor ??.?

Better predictor: ???

to be advised.

Some Links

Morgan polls at www.roymorgan.com.au/polls

Newspoll is at http://newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/display_poll_data.pl

 

These are some other interesting links.

 

Electoral Commission (needless to say) at www.aec.gov.au

Parliament house library has some good stuff. Here is their index site 

www.aph.gov.au/parlindx.htm

 

ABC site, all sorts of stuff by Antony Green & company

www.abc.net.au/public/elections/2001fed/default.htm

 

Any other good links? Let me know.

 

 

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