This page tracked opinion polls during the 2001 campaign. All that stuff remains further below.
***Survey data reproduced courtesy of NEWSPOLL and The Australian.**
Keating and Newspoll 1993
Howard and Newspoll 2001/2002
* two party preferred, after distribution of preferences. Except for during campaign, Newspoll only records primary votes and doesn't distribute.
A similar beginning for both. The government, having been reelected by a reasonably slim margin, jumps ahead in the opinion polls immediately after the election. In Keating's case it took just three months for the parties to draw even and a further month for the opposition to take a big lead.
Howard also jumped ahead in the aftermath and his support subsequently waned. That Feb 8-10 poll result is probably a winning one for Labor given likely distribution of the minor parties' votes, but in March the Coalition was ahead again.
Since the April Newspoll, they've been fluctuating. The Coalition has pretty well been in front on primary votes, but with the Greens right up, and One Nation right down, it's a closer contest than might appear.
At last election Labor got three quarters of Green preferences. One Nation - who clocked in at 4 percent - went about 55 to 45 to Coalition.
Most recent Newspoll, published in Oz on September 19, Coalition is on 42 and Labor on 36. Greens are on eight, Dems on 3 and One Nation on one. That's one of the better ones for Coalition; after allocating preferences, the two party preferred situation is probably what it was at November 2001 election - 51 to 49 percent in favour of government.
Links below are pre-election.
It's Saturday 10 November and Newspoll has Coalition at 53% to 47% while Labor is ahead in the marginals. Yes, you read that right. That can only mean their basket of marginals is too small. Not possible for a party to win with 47 percent of the vote.
Still, as written elsewhere here, very possible for Labor to win with something under 50%.
AC Nielson also has Coalition ahead, at 52 to 48.
My prepare-for-egg-on-face prediction is now locked in at the prediction
In previous polls
Morgan poll in the last week of campaign
Wed 7 November: Bulletin's Roy Morgan poll showing Labor ahead 54.5 to 45.5%
What can one say but "bloody hell"? Gary Morgan on AM saying we've been doing this for 60 years we know what we're doing ....
Come election night either Morgan or Newspoll and everyone else is going to look pretty silly. Wouldn't like to place bets on who. Well, insofar as Labor getting 54.5 of two party preferred vote I'd certainly take any odds against that.
Previous poll updates
Most recent development: Newpoll published Tues Nov 6, taken last weekend, gives 51% - 49% to the Coalition. In the current electoral climate, as noted elsewhere on this site, this is almost enough for Labor to win (they won't need anything like the 51% they got last time). But you would want to see more such movement before considering it a probability, as the opinion polls do historically tend to overstate Labor's vote.
What will Morgan say in tomorrow's Bulletin? Unlike every other poll, they've showed Labor ahead of late. They might turn out to be crazy, but not as crazy as the Bulliten's pollster at the last election, fmr Lib pollster Mark Textor, who was giving the Coalition 8-10% leads in the leadup to October 1998. They were nonsense.
A Newspoll published in Sunday Telegraph (Nov 4) taken in marginal seats shows Labor slightly ahead. Given that Newspoll has had the Coalition comfortably ahead in every poll in the last few weeks this is significant.
Also watched a guy from Roy Morgan on "Insiders". He says that the major parties' primary votes are neck-and-neck and distribution of preferences are favouring Labour. The last part is true, but to put the primary votes at similar levels is ludicrous. With One Nation all but gone, the Coalition's primary support must be leaps ahead of Labour, otherwise we're in for a Labor landslide.
(Labor should get 70- 80% of Green and Democrat preferences, perhaps more)
It makes you wonder about Morgan's polling ability.
They're all over the shop.
The Morgan and Newspoll polls, both taken last weekend (Oct 26-28) , tell very different stories.
Morgan has Labor ahead 52.5 to 47.5, Newspoll has the Coalition powering it in with 54 to 46.
Who is more accurate?
Newspoll is probably the best regarded poll among the punting-class. Gary Morgan claims his is superior because most are conducted face-to-face, which elicits a more honest response. Newspoll's Sol Lebovic reckons phone polling is better as you get more responses and therefore a better cross-section. In particular Lebovic infers Morgan doesn't get enough data in country areas, greatly under-estimating National Party support.
Who is better, Morgan or Newspoll?
Ryan, Aston and October 1998
A tale of three elections
I. Ryan byelection (17 March 2001)
Actual result Coalition 49.8 Labor 50.2
Better predictor: Morgan
II. Aston byelection (14 July 2001)
Actual result Coalition 50.6 Labor 49.4
Better predictor: Morgan
Roy Morgan polls were more accurate at the byelections, estimating a lower Labor vote than Newspoll at what were both very close results.
That both polls overestimated the Labor vote at the byelections this year must send a shiver up Labor's spine in this campaign.
And the polls for this election
III. Federal Election November 2001
Morgan Poll results 2001 Newspoll results 2001
Actual result Coalition ??.? Labor ??.?
Better predictor: ???
to be advised.