2004 swing (after one week of counting)
Next to each electorate is old
margin, AEC socio dem rating and swing. Negative swings, to Coalition, at
top. Those ranked 104 to 146 swung to Labor. Colours from before
seats where two candidate preferred not between Labor and Coalition either
this time or last - Calare, Farrer, New England and Kennedy - not
Clicking any seat will, as
before, put seat in right hand panel, but details haven't been updated.
Gilmore, the biggest pro-government swinger in 2001, went to Labor by the
largest amount on October 9. Presumably the Peter Knott factor. (He wasn't
the Labor candidate this time.)
State-wise, WA and Vic look
over-represented at top. NSW at bottom (swings to Labor). Queensland seems
scattered. But that's all first-glance.
seat changes italicised. To the Liberals go Braddon (rank
3), Bass (21), Greenway (39), Hasluck (45), Stirling (46) and Wakefield
(70). To Labor go
Cunningham (from the Greens, rank 99) and Adelaide (130)
In doubt are
Parramatta (127) and Richmond (133), both probable Labor gains,
while Bonner (68) is probably a Liberal one. In Swan (73), Kingston (89)
and Hindmarsh (118) incumbents are ahead.
their seats at this stage are Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck and Martyn Evans
in Wakefield, while two others, Con Sciacca
in Bonner and Kim Wilkie in Swan are in danger.