Electorates by 2004 swing (after one week of counting)

Next to each electorate is old margin, AEC socio dem rating and swing. Negative swings, to Coalition, at top. Those ranked 104 to 146 swung to Labor. Colours from before October 9.

Four seats where two candidate preferred not between Labor and Coalition either this time or last - Calare, Farrer, New England and Kennedy - not included.

Clicking any seat will, as before, put seat in right hand panel, but details haven't been updated.

Comment: Gilmore, the biggest pro-government swinger in 2001, went to Labor by the largest amount on October 9. Presumably the Peter Knott factor. (He wasn't the Labor candidate this time.)

State-wise, WA and Vic look over-represented at top. NSW at bottom (swings to Labor). Queensland seems scattered. But that's all first-glance.

Definite seat changes italicised. To the Liberals go Braddon (rank 3), Bass (21), Greenway (39), Hasluck (45), Stirling (46) and Wakefield (70). To Labor go Cunningham (from the Greens, rank 99) and Adelaide (130) 

In doubt are Parramatta (127) and  Richmond (133), both probable Labor gains, while Bonner (68) is probably a Liberal one. In Swan (73), Kingston (89) and Hindmarsh (118) incumbents are ahead.

Lemming tally

Non-Lemmings to definitely lose their seats at this stage are Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck and Martyn Evans in Wakefield, while two others, Con Sciacca in Bonner and Kim Wilkie in Swan are in danger. 

1 Canning (WA) 0.4 o -9.3
2 Aston (Vic) 6.0 o -7.2
3 Braddon (Tas) 6.0 r -7.2
4 Calwell (Vic) 15.1 o -6.8
5 Forde (Qld) 7.0 r -6.3
6 Pearce (WA) 6.9 p -6.1
7 Bowman (Qld) 3.1 o -6.0
8 Maribyrnong (Vic) 15.4 o -5.9
9 Holt (Vic) 7.9 o -5.8
10 Indi (Vic) 10.7 r -5.6
11 Prospect (NSW) 12.8 o -5.6
12 Parkes (NSW) 8.7 r -5.4
13 Dobell (NSW) 0.4 p -5.4
14 Brand (WA) 10.1 p -5.4
15 Gippsland (Vic) 2.6 r -5.3
16 Gellibrand (Vic) 20.4 i -5.3
17 Longman (Qld) 2.5 r -5.2
18 Paterson (NSW) 1.4 r -5.1
19 Isaacs (Vic) 6.6 o -5.1
20 Scullin (Vic) 20.3 o -5.1
21 Bass (Tas) 2.1 p -5.0
22 Moore (WA) 6.0 o -4.9
23 Cowan (WA) 5.5 o -4.8
24 Melbourne (Vic) 19.9 i -4.8
25 Herbert (Qld) 1.5 p -4.7
26 Blair (Qld) 6.6 r -4.7
27 Gorton (Vic) 20.2 o -4.7
28 Lyons (Tas) 8.2 r -4.5
29 Petrie (Qld) 3.5 o -4.4
30 Hume (NSW) 9.8 r -4.4
31 Mallee (Vic) 20.9 r -4.4
32 Perth (WA) 11.2 i -4.3
33 Maranoa (Qld) 15.4 r -4.2
34 Dunkley (Vic) 5.2 o -4.1
35 Casey (Vic) 7.2 o -4.1
36 Moncrieff (Qld) 16.3 p -4.1
37 Tangney (WA) 8.0 i -4.0
38 Groom (Qld) 15.1 p -3.9
39 Greenway (NSW) 3.1 o -3.9
40 Deakin (Vic) 1.6 o -3.7
41 Reid (NSW) 16.9 i -3.7
42 Batman (Vic) 25.1 i -3.7
43 McEwen (Vic) 2.2 r -3.6
44 Barker (SA) 16.6 r -3.6
45 Hasluck (WA) 1.8 o -3.6
46 Stirling (WA) 1.6 i -3.5
47 Lalor (Vic) 12.1 o -3.5
48 Leichhardt (Qld) 6.4 r -3.4
49 Flinders (Vic) 7.4 r -3.3
50 Forrest (WA) 7.6 r -3.3
51 Wills (Vic) 20.6 i -3.3
52 Grey (SA) 10.6 r -3.2
53 Gwydir (NSW) 14.9 r -3.2
54 Bruce (Vic) 6.5 o -3.2
55 Wannon (Vic) 9.2 r -3.0
56 Corio (Vic) 8.5 p -2.9
57 Fremantle (WA) 10.7 i -2.9
58 Hotham (Vic) 11.0 o -2.8
59 Murray (Vic) 21.9 r -2.7
60 Bendigo (Vic) 3.6 p -2.7
61 Dawson (Qld) 8.0 r -2.6
62 McMillan (Vic) 2.9 r -2.6
63 Macarthur (NSW) 7.0 o -2.6
64 Port Adelaide (SA) 16.0 i -2.6
65 Hinkler (Qld) 2.2 r -2.5
66 Solomon (NT) 0.1 i -2.3
67 Fadden (Qld) 13.1 o -2.3
68 Bonner (Qld) 1.9 o -2.2
69 McPherson (Qld) 12.2 p -2.0
70 Wakefield (SA) 1.3 o -1.9
71 Chifley (NSW) 15.3 o -1.9
72 Fairfax (Qld) 9.2 r -1.8
73 Swan (WA) 2.0 i -1.8

74 Banks (NSW) 2.9 i -1.8
75 Blaxland (NSW) 15.2 i -1.8
76 Moreton (Qld) 2.6 i -1.7
77 La Trobe (Vic) 3.7 o -1.7
78 Cowper (NSW) 4.7 r -1.7
79 Lyne (NSW) 11.2 r -1.7
80 Dickson (Qld) 6.0 o -1.7
81 Menzies (Vic) 8.9 o -1.6
82 Page (NSW) 2.8 r -1.5
83 Fisher (Qld) 11.8 p -1.5
84 Curtin (WA) 13.9 i -1.5
85 O'Connor (WA) 19.1 r -1.4
86 Ryan (Qld) 9.5 o -1.3
87 Denison (Tas) 14.3 i -1.3
88 Ballarat (Vic) 3.2 p -1.2
89 Kingston (SA) 1.3 o -1.2
90 Watson (NSW) 17.3 i -1.1
91 Kalgoorlie (WA) 4.3 r -1.0
92 Jagajaga (Vic) 5.3 o -0.9
93 Wide Bay (Qld) 9.9 r -0.8
94 Riverina (NSW) 19.9 r -0.7
95 Macquarie (NSW) 8.7 o -0.6
96 Hughes (NSW) 10.4 o -0.6
97 Melbourne Ports (Vic) 5.7 i -0.6
98 Franklin (Tas) 8.0 o -0.5
99 Cunningham (NSW) 10.7 p -0.4
100 Goldstein (Vic) 9.5 i -0.3
101 Lowe (NSW) 3.8 i -0.2
102 Eden-Monaro (NSW) 1.7 r -0.1
103 Higgins (Vic) 8.4 i 0.0
104 Cook (NSW) 14.0 i 0.1
105 Kingsford Smith (NSW) 8.9 i 0.1
106 Robertson (NSW) 7.0 p 0.2
107 Canberra (ACT) 9.4 i 0.2
108 Corangamite (Vic) 5.4 p 0.3
109 Chisholm (Vic) 2.7 i 0.3
110 Capricornia (Qld) 5.5 p 0.3
111 Mitchell (NSW) 21.3 o 0.4
112 Throsby (NSW) 15.1 p 0.6
113 Mayo (SA) 14.3 r 0.7
114 Lilley (Qld) 4.6 i 0.7
115 Fraser (ACT) 12.7 i 0.7
116 Mackellar (NSW) 16.9 o 0.8
117 Shortland (NSW) 8.8 p 0.8
118 Hindmarsh (SA) 1.0 i 0.9
119 Rankin (Qld) 2.4 o 0.9
120 Fowler (NSW) 21.5 o 0.9
121 Werriwa (NSW) 8.5 o 1.1
122 Lindsay (NSW) 5.5 o 1.2
123 Sturt (SA) 8.5 i 1.5
124 Boothby (SA) 7.4 o 1.8
125 Grayndler (NSW) 21.3 i 1.8
126 Kooyong (Vic) 10.9 i 1.9
127 Parramatta (NSW) 1.2 i 1.9
128 Barton (NSW) 6.0 i 1.9
129 Charlton (NSW) 6.7 p 1.9
130 Adelaide (SA) 0.6 i 2.1
131 Bradfield (NSW) 21.2 i 2.2
132 Oxley (Qld) 8.0 o 2.2
133 Richmond (NSW) 1.7 r 2.3
134 Wentworth (NSW) 7.9 i 2.3
135 Warringah (NSW) 12.7 i 2.3
136 Sydney (NSW) 15.0 i 2.3
137 Griffith (Qld) 6.2 o 2.7
138 Makin (SA) 3.7 o 2.8
139 Hunter (NSW) 10.9 r 3.0
140 Brisbane (Qld) 1.0 i 3.1
141 Newcastle (NSW) 6.9 p 3.1
142 North Sydney (NSW) 13.2 i 3.2
143 Bennelong (NSW) 7.7 i 3.7
144 Lingiari (NT) 5.3 r 3.7
145 Berowra (NSW) 15.7 o 4.0
146 Gilmore (NSW) 14.6 r 4.8


But ex-members in Bass, Braddon, Stirling - plus doubtful Kingston - are lemmings. 

Of course, that's not counting the twenty or so unsuccessful Labor candidates who would now be in parliament if it weren't for Lemming behaviour. (I joke not.)

Of course, Lemmings are responsible for much more than this. They've given us three more years of Coalition rule and Howard his place in the history books. 

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