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Federal pendulum

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

The third most populous state is the least urbanised - hence the Nationals' traditional dominance.

While Labor's low NSW stocks - its traditional stronghold - gets all the attention, Queensland offers seats aplenty. Like the rural category (with which it shares many), this is an area where federal Labor traditionally does poorly - important important distinction is between pretty poor and piss-poor.

At the last election the ALP won just seven from twenty seven electorates with a derisory 45.1 percent two party preferred. The addition of Bonner in redistributio means there are now 28 in all, but with Bowman shifted notionally to the Coalition side, Labor still starts from seven.

The ALP's best result in living memory was 15 out of 24 seats in 1990 with 50.2 two party preferred - three months after Wayne Goss's historic win. Hawke's nationwide majority then was just 8.

A similar Queensland result in 2001 would have wiped out Howard's majority.

They bitch and moan about NSW, but a better result here and in SA two years ago could have secured victory for Beazley.

Queensland could be described as a big state (population-wise) with a small state mentality. Along with WA and Tasmania, it invariably gives constitutional referendums the biggest thumbs down, is wary of Canberra and sees its and the nation's identity and interests as discrete entities. (South Australia tends towards the opposite: small state but thinks like a big one.)

A parochial state with 28 seats out of 150. Perhaps it's time to put a Queenslander in the top ALP job.

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