return to this section at any time, click "blurb" at left.
There are today 150 members of the House of
Representatives. It now appears certain the Northern Territory will retain
both seats, so that will be the number in the next parliament too.
election Victoria, Queensland and South Australia have had redistributions. (See AEC
explanation of redistributions.)
seats at the next
election to take government.
The pendulum is unique to preferential voting
in single member electorates in a two party system, which pretty well means it is unique to Australia. It,
and the term "two party preferred", were invented by psephologist
Malcolm Mackerras. Read more
about preferential voting.
Coalition-held seats are on left, Labor held
at right. They are in order of margin, so the most marginal are at the bottom.
and one Green
are situated as per their Labor-Coalition two party
National seats brown. Key to AEC
geo-demographics in middle-top of pendulum.
After the redistribution ....
There are two new seats: Gorton (Vic)
and Bonner (Qld) both notionally Labor
- by 20.2% and
Bonython (SA) and
Burke (Vic) have both been abolished.
McMillan (2.9) and
Wakefield (1.5) have notionally changed hands
Numbers in current
parliament are: Coalition
3 and Greens
Notional new numbers
are Coalition: 83; Labor 63;
3 and Greens
Eleven Coalition seats have margins less than or
equal to 1.7 percent. Assuming Labor either wins back Cunningham or has the
support of the Green Michael Organ, getting those
11 would give Labor
75 seats out of 150. (Forget Howard's "eight seats
stand between us and oblivion". The number is eleven.)
Possibly - depending, perhaps, on the two
party preferred vote in his seat of Calare, or the national one - Independent
Peter Andren would support a Labor government. Labor could, after all,
claim to have more seats than the Coalition. (The other two Independents
would certainly back a Coalition government.)
So 1.7 percent is probably the uniform swing
required to change government.
Having said that, swings are never uniform.
But a swing of that size would put the ALP on 50.7
to the Coalition's 49.3. That's a realistic amount
needed for them to take government.
If you click a seat a blurb will appear in
this spot with MP's photo (from their parliament house web page), various
statistics and in the case of some, commentary. You'll also find links to the
Electoral Commission's page for that electorate, which gives description, map,
history and past members. Also find aforementioned
Parliament House Page.
So click away and enjoy!
an interesting first exercise: visit the safest Coalition seats - at
the top left of the pendulum. Notice that the rural ones (with an R)
have very low medium incomes and the urban ones very high ones. That's the Liberal-National
divide that lets the ALP peel away the more marginal rural seats from time to
time (although some rural seats are Liberal-held).
Now visit Labor's
safest ones - top right of pendulum. Apart from Grayndler,
they too have low incomes.
In fact, if you
compare the two safest in the country - Murray
- you'll find their vital statistics very similar, except in one respect: born
in non English speaking country.
Now click any seat to find out more. Includes
Census data, link to AEC page for that seat and to member's page.