The ALP holds most urban seats, including all the poorest ones. This should surprise no-one.

There are two pendulums - metropolitan (including AEC classifications inner and outer metro) and non-metro (provincial and rural).

Read about these classifications

At right is the metro pendulum.

The other one (non-metro) contains three quarters of the Coalition marginals. Logic would dictate that's where they take the fight, but they'd rather the familiar territory of the beloved outer suburbs.