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Federal pendulum

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Scroll graph to the right to see most recent

go to graph for Nov '01 to June '03

Above are  calculations (using preference distributions from the previous elections*) of two party preferred Newspoll results, from the primary figures, from the beginning of 1985 to the start of the Iraq war. As usual, blue is Coalition and red is Labor. Two party preferred always add to 100, hence the symmetry around 50% line.

Note: Every election is followed by a jump in support for the winner. Election results are closer than most survey ones. The current term was notable for tightness of contest until the Bali bombings; the subsequent jump in government support was similar to recent war-inspired one. The biggest gaps in surveyed support were in the Keating government's last term, when both government and opposition took massive leads at different times. Beazley also hit huge gaps for periods in both his terms as opposition leader. Both times he peaked at about three quarter time to go down in a close finish.

In 1987 and 1990 Newspoll over-estimated the Hawke government's support. In 1993 they under-estimated the Keating government's and in 1996 and 1998 they were pretty right. The 2001 election was closer than they thought; they had the Howard government further ahead than turned out to be the case.

* Preference allocations were calculated using flows from the  respective previous election. For the current and previous term, these are allocated according to each minor party: Democrats, Green, One Nation and "Other". For prior ones, all non-major party votes are treated as one lump. This is due to data available, but it is really only the current term, with historically large Green votes, that minor party differentiation is important.