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seat 2pp graphs '07

Seats to watch!

Federal pendulum (old)

margins since 1983

Historical results

Margins 1949  2001

See the lemmings!

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences

Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

 
 

Seats ranked by swings 1993 to 2007 minus state swing (total of swings at elections 1996 to 2007)

Seat State AEC Geographic ALP vote 07 swing 
2007		 swing 
93-07		 state swing 93-07 difference
Capricornia Qld Provincial 62.71 9.0 12.5 2.0 10.5
Bradfield NSW Inner Metro 36.55 4.0 6.6 -0.7 7.3
Mitchell NSW Outer Metro 38.41 9.1 6.2 -0.7 6.9
Ballarat Vic Provincial 58.15 6.0 9.3 2.5 6.8
Watson NSW Inner Metro 70.33 5.8 5.7 -0.7 6.4
Hunter NSW Rural 65.92 4.8 5.6 -0.7 6.3
Fairfax Qld Rural 46.99 9.4 8.2 2.0 6.2
Berowra NSW Outer Metro 41.06 5.0 5.3 -0.7 6.0
Richmond NSW Rural 58.87 7.5 5.2 -0.7 5.9
Ryan Qld Outer Metro 46.18 6.6 7.9 2.0 5.9
Dawson Qld Rural 53.21 13.2 7.7 2.0 5.7
Adelaide SA Inner Metro 58.53 7.2 10.5 5.1 5.4
Chisholm Vic Inner Metro 57.38 4.7 7.8 2.5 5.4
North Sydney NSW Inner Metro 44.62 4.6 4.5 -0.7 5.2
Bennelong NSW Inner Metro 51.40 5.6 4.2 -0.7 4.9
Page NSW Rural 52.36 7.9 3.8 -0.7 4.5
Fowler NSW Outer Metro 68.25 5.0 3.6 -0.7 4.3
Grayndler NSW Inner Metro 74.93 3.7 3.5 -0.7 4.2
Corangamite Vic Provincial 50.85 6.2 6.5 2.5 4.1
Griffith Qld Outer Metro 62.32 3.8 6.0 2.0 4.0
Forrest WA Rural 44.17 4.7 4.7 0.7 3.9
Groom Qld Provincial 41.78 10.6 5.8 2.0 3.8
Newcastle NSW Provincial 65.91 7.2 3.1 -0.7 3.8
Canberra ACT Inner Metro 61.82 1.9 5.9 2.2 3.7
Jagajaga Vic Outer Metro 58.98 4.6 6.0 2.5 3.6
Farrer NSW Rural 38.83 5.6 2.7 -0.7 3.4
Bruce Vic Outer Metro 58.32 4.8 5.9 2.5 3.4
Fisher Qld Provincial 46.90 7.9 5.3 2.0 3.3
Barton NSW Inner Metro 62.10 4.5 2.5 -0.7 3.2
Lowe NSW Inner Metro 57.37 4.4 2.4 -0.7 3.1
Tangney WA Inner Metro 41.32 3.1 3.7 0.7 3.0
O'Connor WA Rural 33.45 3.9 3.6 0.7 2.9
Rankin Qld Outer Metro 61.74 8.7 4.9 2.0 2.9
Lyons Tas Rural 58.78 5.1 4.5 1.6 2.9
Cowper NSW Rural 48.77 5.5 2.0 -0.7 2.7
Parramatta NSW Inner Metro 56.88 7.8 1.9 -0.7 2.6
Braddon Tas Rural 51.44 2.5 4.2 1.6 2.6
Wakefield SA Outer Metro 56.59 7.3 7.5 5.1 2.5
Perth WA Inner Metro 58.85 2.2 3.2 0.7 2.5
Calwell Vic Outer Metro 69.33 11.1 4.8 2.5 2.4
Barker SA Rural 40.55 10.5 7.4 5.1 2.3
Bendigo Vic Provincial 56.13 5.1 4.7 2.5 2.3
Holt Vic Outer Metro 61.63 10.1 4.6 2.5 2.2
Gippsland Vic Rural 44.09 1.8 4.5 2.5 2.0
Warringah NSW Inner Metro 40.50 1.8 1.3 -0.7 2.0
Werriwa NSW Outer Metro 65.24 8.3 1.3 -0.7 2.0
Cunningham NSW Provincial 68.13 6.5 1.1 -0.7 1.8
Forde Qld Rural 52.91 14.4 3.6 2.0 1.5
Kooyong Vic Inner Metro 40.47 0.3 3.9 2.5 1.5
Leichhardt Qld Rural 54.03 14.3 3.5 2.0 1.4
Hotham Vic Outer Metro 63.00 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.4
Port Adelaide SA Inner Metro 69.75 6.9 6.5 5.1 1.4
Throsby NSW Provincial 73.46 9.7 0.7 -0.7 1.4
Eden-Monaro NSW Rural 53.40 6.7 0.5 -0.7 1.2
Indi Vic Rural 40.81 7.1 3.7 2.5 1.2
Hindmarsh SA Inner Metro 55.05 5.0 5.8 5.1 0.7
Menzies Vic Outer Metro 43.98 4.7 3.2 2.5 0.7
Pearce WA Provincial 40.93 3.8 1.2 0.7 0.5
Goldstein Vic Inner Metro 43.95 4.0 3.0 2.5 0.5
Mackellar NSW Outer Metro 37.58 3.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.5
Moreton Qld Inner Metro 54.75 7.6 2.4 2.0 0.4
Brisbane Qld Inner Metro 56.76 2.9 2.4 2.0 0.4
Moore WA Outer Metro 40.83 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3
Sturt SA Inner Metro 49.06 5.9 5.4 5.1 0.3
Cowan WA Outer Metro 48.29 -2.5 1.1 0.7 0.3
Boothby SA Outer Metro 47.07 2.5 5.3 5.1 0.2
Lilley Qld Inner Metro 58.59 3.2 2.2 2.0 0.2
Curtin WA Inner Metro 36.43 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1
Kingsford Smith NSW Inner Metro 63.29 4.8 -0.6 -0.7 0.1
Mayo SA Rural 42.94 6.5 5.0 5.1 -0.1
Higgins Vic Inner Metro 42.96 1.8 2.2 2.5 -0.2
Denison Tas Inner Metro 65.63 2.3 1.2 1.6 -0.4
Hinkler Qld Rural 48.31 6.5 1.4 2.0 -0.6
Deakin Vic Outer Metro 51.41 6.4 1.8 2.5 -0.6
Brand WA Provincial 55.62 0.9 0.1 0.7 -0.6
Bass Tas Provincial 51.00 3.6 0.9 1.6 -0.7
Chifley NSW Outer Metro 70.66 8.7 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7
Fraser ACT Inner Metro 65.07 1.8 1.4 2.2 -0.8
Batman Vic Inner Metro 75.95 4.7 1.6 2.5 -0.8
McEwen Vic Rural 49.99 6.4 1.6 2.5 -0.9
Wannon Vic Rural 42.53 4.9 1.6 2.5 -0.9
Swan WA Inner Metro 49.89 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 -0.9
Macquarie NSW Outer Metro 57.04 6.5 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0
Banks NSW Inner Metro 61.08 7.9 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0
Reid NSW Inner Metro 66.80 4.8 -1.8 -0.7 -1.1
Wentworth NSW Inner Metro 46.15 -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 -1.2
Melbourne Ports Vic Inner Metro 57.15 3.5 1.3 2.5 -1.2
Makin SA Outer Metro 57.70 8.6 3.8 5.1 -1.3
Fremantle WA Inner Metro 59.14 1.3 -0.6 0.7 -1.3
Prospect NSW Outer Metro 63.46 7.1 -2.1 -0.7 -1.4
Shortland NSW Provincial 64.74 5.5 -2.2 -0.7 -1.5
Sydney NSW Inner Metro 69.50 2.3 -2.2 -0.7 -1.5
Wills Vic Inner Metro 72.41 5.5 1.0 2.5 -1.5
La Trobe Vic Outer Metro 49.49 5.3 0.8 2.5 -1.7
Petrie Qld Outer Metro 52.05 9.5 0.1 2.0 -1.9
Murray Vic Rural 31.74 5.8 0.6 2.5 -1.9
Longman Qld Rural 53.57 10.3 0.0 2.0 -2.0
Hume NSW Rural 45.84 8.6 -2.7 -0.7 -2.0
Kingston SA Outer Metro 54.42 4.5 3.1 5.1 -2.0
Corio Vic Provincial 58.93 3.3 0.3 2.5 -2.2
Lalor Vic Outer Metro 65.53 6.7 0.1 2.5 -2.4
McMillan Vic Rural 45.21 0.2 0.0 2.5 -2.5
Isaacs Vic Outer Metro 57.69 6.2 0.0 2.5 -2.5
McPherson Qld Provincial 41.17 5.1 -0.6 2.0 -2.6
Canning WA Outer Metro 44.42 3.9 -1.9 0.7 -2.6
Moncrieff Qld Provincial 35.99 5.5 -0.6 2.0 -2.7
Dickson Qld Outer Metro 49.87 8.8 -0.8 2.0 -2.8
Stirling WA Inner Metro 48.71 0.7 -2.2 0.7 -2.9
Dobell NSW Provincial 53.90 8.7 -3.6 -0.7 -2.9
Cook NSW Inner Metro 43.43 6.7 -3.7 -0.7 -3.0
Lyne NSW Rural 41.42 4.8 -3.8 -0.7 -3.1
Maranoa Qld Rural 35.56 6.6 -1.1 2.0 -3.1
Paterson NSW Rural 48.49 4.6 -4.1 -0.7 -3.4
Charlton NSW Provincial 62.87 4.5 -4.1 -0.7 -3.4
Wide Bay Qld Rural 41.53 3.7 -1.5 2.0 -3.5
Riverina NSW Rural 33.77 4.6 -4.3 -0.7 -3.6
Melbourne Vic Inner Metro 72.40 1.3 -1.2 2.5 -3.6
Casey Vic Outer Metro 44.07 5.5 -1.6 2.5 -4.1
Maribyrnong Vic Outer Metro 65.32 5.8 -1.6 2.5 -4.1
Lindsay NSW Outer Metro 56.78 9.7 -5.0 -0.7 -4.3
Dunkley Vic Outer Metro 45.96 5.4 -2.0 2.5 -4.4
Franklin Tas Outer Metro 54.48 -3.1 -2.9 1.6 -4.5
Robertson NSW Provincial 50.11 7.0 -5.3 -0.7 -4.6
Gilmore NSW Rural 45.93 5.3 -5.3 -0.7 -4.6
Blaxland NSW Inner Metro 68.37 3.2 -5.4 -0.7 -4.7
Oxley Qld Outer Metro 64.13 7.0 -2.8 2.0 -4.8
Aston Vic Outer Metro 44.95 8.2 -2.6 2.5 -5.1
Scullin Vic Outer Metro 70.85 6.1 -2.6 2.5 -5.1
Gellibrand Vic Inner Metro 71.46 6.5 -2.7 2.5 -5.2
Flinders Vic Rural 41.75 2.9 -2.8 2.5 -5.3
Herbert Qld Provincial 49.79 6.0 -3.6 2.0 -5.6
Parkes NSW Rural 36.96 5.8 -6.5 -0.7 -5.8
Fadden Qld Outer Metro 39.80 5.7 -3.9 2.0 -5.9
Bowman Qld Outer Metro 49.96 8.9 -3.9 2.0 -5.9
Greenway NSW Outer Metro 45.50 6.9 -6.7 -0.7 -6.0
Grey SA Rural 45.57 9.4 -1.8 5.1 -6.8
Macarthur NSW Outer Metro 49.28 10.4 -7.7 -0.7 -7.0
Mallee Vic Rural 28.73 3.5 -5.3 2.5 -7.8
Hughes NSW Outer Metro 47.84 6.3 -10.4 -0.7 -9.7
 

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