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seat 2pp graphs '07

Seats to watch!

Federal pendulum (old)

margins since 1983

Historical results

Margins 1949  2001

See the lemmings!

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences

Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

 
 

Seats ranked by swing minus state swing at 2007 election

Seat State AEC Geog ALP 2pp 2007 swing state swing differ-
ence
Forde Qld Rural 52.9 14.4 7.5 6.9
Leichhardt Qld Rural 54.0 14.3 7.5 6.8
Calwell Vic Outer Metro 69.3 11.1 5.3 5.9
Dawson Qld Rural 53.2 13.2 7.5 5.7
Holt Vic Outer Metro 61.6 10.1 5.3 4.9
Macarthur NSW Outer Metro 49.3 10.4 5.6 4.8
Lindsay NSW Outer Metro 56.8 9.7 5.6 4.1
Throsby NSW Provincial 73.5 9.7 5.6 4.1
Barker SA Rural 40.6 10.5 6.8 3.7
Mitchell NSW Outer Metro 38.4 9.1 5.6 3.5
Dobell NSW Provincial 53.9 8.7 5.6 3.1
Lyons Tas Rural 58.8 5.1 2.0 3.1
Groom Qld Provincial 41.8 10.6 7.5 3.1
Chifley NSW Outer Metro 70.7 8.7 5.6 3.1
Hume NSW Rural 45.8 8.6 5.6 3.0
Aston Vic Outer Metro 45.0 8.2 5.3 2.9
Longman Qld Rural 53.6 10.3 7.5 2.7
Werriwa NSW Outer Metro 65.2 8.3 5.6 2.7
Blair Qld Rural 54.5 10.2 7.5 2.7
Grey SA Rural 45.6 9.4 6.8 2.6
Forrest WA Rural 44.2 4.7 2.1 2.5
Banks NSW Inner Metro 61.1 7.9 5.6 2.3
Page NSW Rural 52.4 7.9 5.6 2.3
Parramatta NSW Inner Metro 56.9 7.8 5.6 2.2
Petrie Qld Outer Metro 52.1 9.5 7.5 1.9
Richmond NSW Rural 58.9 7.5 5.6 1.9
Fairfax Qld Rural 47.0 9.4 7.5 1.9
Makin SA Outer Metro 57.7 8.6 6.8 1.8
Indi Vic Rural 40.8 7.1 5.3 1.8
Canning WA Outer Metro 44.4 3.9 2.1 1.8
O'Connor WA Rural 33.5 3.9 2.1 1.7
Pearce WA Provincial 40.9 3.8 2.1 1.7
Newcastle NSW Provincial 65.9 7.2 5.6 1.6
Kalgoorlie WA Rural 47.4 3.7 2.1 1.6
Bass Tas Provincial 51.0 3.6 2.0 1.6
Capricornia Qld Provincial 62.7 9.0 7.5 1.5
Lalor Vic Outer Metro 65.5 6.7 5.3 1.5
Prospect NSW Outer Metro 63.5 7.1 5.6 1.5
Robertson NSW Provincial 50.1 7.0 5.6 1.4
Bowman Qld Outer Metro 50.0 8.9 7.5 1.3
Greenway NSW Outer Metro 45.5 6.9 5.6 1.3
Dickson Qld Outer Metro 49.9 8.8 7.5 1.2
Rankin Qld Outer Metro 61.7 8.7 7.5 1.2
Gellibrand Vic Inner Metro 71.5 6.5 5.3 1.2
Deakin Vic Outer Metro 51.4 6.4 5.3 1.1
McEwen Vic Rural 50.0 6.4 5.3 1.1
Cook NSW Inner Metro 43.4 6.7 5.6 1.1
Eden-Monaro NSW Rural 53.4 6.7 5.6 1.1
Gorton Vic Outer Metro 71.2 6.3 5.3 1.1
Tangney WA Inner Metro 41.3 3.1 2.1 1.0
Macquarie NSW Outer Metro 57.0 6.5 5.6 0.9
Hasluck WA Outer Metro 51.3 3.1 2.1 0.9
Isaacs Vic Outer Metro 57.7 6.2 5.3 0.9
Cunningham NSW Provincial 68.1 6.5 5.6 0.9
Corangamite Vic Provincial 50.9 6.2 5.3 0.9
Scullin Vic Outer Metro 70.9 6.1 5.3 0.8
Hughes NSW Outer Metro 47.8 6.3 5.6 0.7
Ballarat Vic Provincial 58.2 6.0 5.3 0.7
Murray Vic Rural 31.7 5.8 5.3 0.6
Maribyrnong Vic Outer Metro 65.3 5.8 5.3 0.6
Wakefield SA Outer Metro 56.6 7.3 6.8 0.5
Braddon Tas Rural 51.4 2.5 2.0 0.5
Adelaide SA Inner Metro 58.5 7.2 6.8 0.5
Fisher Qld Provincial 46.9 7.9 7.5 0.4
Hotham Vic Outer Metro 63.0 5.6 5.3 0.3
Denison Tas Inner Metro 65.6 2.3 2.0 0.3
Wills Vic Inner Metro 72.4 5.5 5.3 0.2
Watson NSW Inner Metro 70.3 5.8 5.6 0.2
Casey Vic Outer Metro 44.1 5.5 5.3 0.2
Lingiari NT Rural 61.2 3.5 3.3 0.2
Parkes NSW Rural 37.0 5.8 5.6 0.2
Dunkley Vic Outer Metro 46.0 5.4 5.3 0.1
Port Adelaide SA Inner Metro 69.8 6.9 6.8 0.1
Canberra ACT Inner Metro 61.8 1.9 1.9 0.1
Moreton Qld Inner Metro 54.8 7.6 7.5 0.0
La Trobe Vic Outer Metro 49.5 5.3 5.3 0.0
Farrer NSW Rural 38.8 5.6 5.6 0.0
Perth WA Inner Metro 58.9 2.2 2.1 0.0
Bennelong NSW Inner Metro 51.4 5.6 5.6 0.0
Shortland NSW Provincial 64.7 5.5 5.6 -0.1
Fraser ACT Inner Metro 65.1 1.8 1.9 -0.1
Cowper NSW Rural 48.8 5.5 5.6 -0.1
Bendigo Vic Provincial 56.1 5.1 5.3 -0.1
Mayo SA Rural 42.9 6.5 6.8 -0.2
Solomon NT Inner Metro 50.2 3.0 3.3 -0.3
Gilmore NSW Rural 45.9 5.3 5.6 -0.3
Wannon Vic Rural 42.5 4.9 5.3 -0.3
Bruce Vic Outer Metro 58.3 4.8 5.3 -0.5
Oxley Qld Outer Metro 64.1 7.0 7.5 -0.5
Moore WA Outer Metro 40.8 1.6 2.1 -0.5
Flynn Qld Rural 50.2 7.0 7.5 -0.6
Menzies Vic Outer Metro 44.0 4.7 5.3 -0.6
Chisholm Vic Inner Metro 57.4 4.7 5.3 -0.6
Batman Vic Inner Metro 76.0 4.7 5.3 -0.6
Berowra NSW Outer Metro 41.1 5.0 5.6 -0.7
Fowler NSW Outer Metro 68.3 5.0 5.6 -0.7
Jagajaga Vic Outer Metro 59.0 4.6 5.3 -0.7
Lyne NSW Rural 41.4 4.8 5.6 -0.8
Hunter NSW Rural 65.9 4.8 5.6 -0.8
Fremantle WA Inner Metro 59.1 1.3 2.1 -0.8
Reid NSW Inner Metro 66.8 4.8 5.6 -0.8
Kingsford Smith NSW Inner Metro 63.3 4.8 5.6 -0.8
Sturt SA Inner Metro 49.1 5.9 6.8 -0.9
Ryan Qld Outer Metro 46.2 6.6 7.5 -1.0
Maranoa Qld Rural 35.6 6.6 7.5 -1.0
North Sydney NSW Inner Metro 44.6 4.6 5.6 -1.0
Hinkler Qld Rural 48.3 6.5 7.5 -1.0
Paterson NSW Rural 48.5 4.6 5.6 -1.0
Riverina NSW Rural 33.8 4.6 5.6 -1.0
Curtin WA Inner Metro 36.4 1.0 2.1 -1.1
Barton NSW Inner Metro 62.1 4.5 5.6 -1.1
Charlton NSW Provincial 62.9 4.5 5.6 -1.1
Brand WA Provincial 55.6 0.9 2.1 -1.2
Lowe NSW Inner Metro 57.4 4.4 5.6 -1.2
Goldstein Vic Inner Metro 44.0 4.0 5.3 -1.3
Stirling WA Inner Metro 48.7 0.7 2.1 -1.4
Herbert Qld Provincial 49.8 6.0 7.5 -1.5
Bradfield NSW Inner Metro 36.6 4.0 5.6 -1.7
Mallee Vic Rural 28.7 3.5 5.3 -1.7
Hindmarsh SA Inner Metro 55.1 5.0 6.8 -1.8
Melbourne Ports Vic Inner Metro 57.2 3.5 5.3 -1.8
Fadden Qld Outer Metro 39.8 5.7 7.5 -1.8
Grayndler NSW Inner Metro 74.9 3.7 5.6 -1.9
Corio Vic Provincial 58.9 3.3 5.3 -1.9
Moncrieff Qld Provincial 36.0 5.5 7.5 -2.0
Kingston SA Outer Metro 54.4 4.5 6.8 -2.2
Swan WA Inner Metro 49.9 -0.2 2.1 -2.4
Flinders Vic Rural 41.8 2.9 5.3 -2.4
Blaxland NSW Inner Metro 68.4 3.2 5.6 -2.4
McPherson Qld Provincial 41.2 5.1 7.5 -2.5
Bonner Qld Outer Metro 54.5 5.0 7.5 -2.5
Mackellar NSW Outer Metro 37.6 3.1 5.6 -2.5
Sydney NSW Inner Metro 69.5 2.3 5.6 -3.3
Gippsland Vic Rural 44.1 1.8 5.3 -3.5
Higgins Vic Inner Metro 43.0 1.8 5.3 -3.5
Griffith Qld Outer Metro 62.3 3.8 7.5 -3.7
Wide Bay Qld Rural 41.5 3.7 7.5 -3.8
Warringah NSW Inner Metro 40.5 1.8 5.6 -3.8
Melbourne Vic Inner Metro 72.4 1.3 5.3 -4.0
Boothby SA Outer Metro 47.1 2.5 6.8 -4.3
Lilley Qld Inner Metro 58.6 3.2 7.5 -4.3
Cowan WA Outer Metro 48.3 -2.5 2.1 -4.7
Brisbane Qld Inner Metro 56.8 2.9 7.5 -4.7
Kooyong Vic Inner Metro 40.5 0.3 5.3 -5.0
McMillan Vic Rural 45.2 0.2 5.3 -5.1
Franklin Tas Outer Metro 54.5 -3.1 2.0 -5.1
Kennedy Qld Rural 42.5 1.4 7.5 -6.1
New England NSW Rural 35.2 -1.2 5.6 -6.8
Wentworth NSW Inner Metro 46.2 -1.4 5.6 -7.0
Calare NSW Rural 38.0 -2.1 5.6 -7.7
 

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