ALP federal two-party-preferred 1937 to 2013 |
| Election | National | NSW | Vic | Qld | WA | SA | Tas | ACT | NT |
| 23.10.1937 | 49.4 | 48.8 | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.4 | 45.4 | 53.1 | NA | NA |
| 21.9.1940 | 50.3 | 54.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 48.1 | 44.0 | 48.9 | NA | NA |
| 21.8.1943 | 58.2 | 62.7 | 54.4 | 54.6 | 62.0 | 58.2 | 55.3 | NA | NA |
| 28.9.1946 | 53.8 | 56.6 | 51.6 | 47.0 | 56.6 | 57.3 | 52.2 | NA | NA |
| 10.12.1949 | 48.7 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 42.5 | 45.4 | 50.6 | 46.5 | NA | NA |
| 28.4.51 | 49.2 | 51.3 | 50.6 | 43.2 | 45.5 | 51.7 | 47.4 | NA | NA |
| 29.5.54 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 50.7 | 44.2 | 47.8 | 52.9 | 49.9 | NA | NA |
| 10.12.55 | 46.5 | 49.6 | 41.3 | 44.0 | 46.3 | 50.9 | 47.9 | NA | NA |
| 22.11.58 | 45.8 | 49.8 | 41.2 | 41.4 | 40.8 | 49.8 | 49.8 | NA | NA |
| 9.12.61 | 50.5 | 54.8 | 44.5 | 50.7 | 43.5 | 54.2 | 56.0 | NA | NA |
| 30.11.63 | 47.4 | 49.3 | 42.5 | 48.1 | 43.8 | 53.3 | 54.5 | NA | NA |
| 26.11.66 | 43.1 | 43.9 | 39.3 | 44.3 | 45.7 | 42.4 | 53.9 | 55.8 | NA |
| 25.10.69 | 50.2 | 51.6 | 44.9 | 49.9 | 52.6 | 54.2 | 56.1 | 71.6 | 40.8 |
| 2.12.72 | 52.7 | 55.4 | 50.4 | 49.5 | 48.3 | 52.7 | 60.5 | 68.0 | 45.5 |
| 18.5.74 | 51.7 | 54.9 | 50.6 | 45.4 | 48.5 | 52.5 | 55.4 | 59.7 | 47.3 |
| 13.12.75 | 44.3 | 46.8 | 43.8 | 39.8 | 41.2 | 44.9 | 44.1 | 49.3 | 45.1 |
| 10.12.77 | 45.4 | 47.6 | 44.5 | 42.0 | 39.9 | 48.7 | 43.8 | 54.3 | 47.5 |
| 18.10.80 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 50.7 | 46.9 | 46.7 | 49.6 | 47.1 | 58.6 | 48.8 |
| 5.3.83 | 53.2 | 54.1 | 54.5 | 49.5 | 55.0 | 52.3 | 43.6 | 65.5 | 51.9 |
| 1.12.84 | 51.8 | 52.9 | 53.1 | 47.7 | 50.9 | 51.7 | 46.6 | 62.0 | 48.6 |
| 11.7.87 | 50.8 | 50.3 | 52.3 | 49.3 | 50.9 | 50.2 | 46.9 | 63.3 | 52.2 |
| 24.3.90 | 49.9 | 52.1 | 47.5 | 50.2 | 47.1 | 49.5 | 47.9 | 58.5 | 55.0 |
| 13.3.93 | 51.4 | 54.4 | 51.8 | 48.4 | 46.0 | 47.3 | 54.7 | 61.2 | 55.3 |
| 2.3.96 | 46.4 | 47.4 | 50.3 | 39.8 | 44.0 | 42.7 | 51.6 | 55.5 | 49.6 |
| 3.10.98 | 51.0 | 51.5 | 53.5 | 47.0 | 49.5 | 46.9 | 57.3 | 62.4 | 50.6 |
| 10.11.01 | 49.1 | 48.3 | 52.1 | 45.1 | 48.4 | 45.9 | 57.7 | 61.1 | 52.5 |
| 9.10.04 | 47.3 | 48.1 | 49.0 | 42.9 | 44.6 | 45.6 | 54.2 | 61.5 | 52.2 |
| 24.11.07 | 52.7 | 53.7 | 54.3 | 50.4 | 46.7 | 52.4 | 56.2 | 63.4 | 55.4 |
| 21.08.10 | 50.1 | 48.8 | 55.3 | 44.9 | 43.6 | 53.2 | 60.6 | 61.7 | 50.7 |
| 07.09.2013 | 46.5 | 45.6 | 50.2 | 43.0 | 41.7 | 47.6 | 51.2 | 59.9 | 49.7 |
Coalition two-party-preferred numbers are 100 minus Labor's. Sources: the starting point is this AEC page for 1949 to 2007, using only the figures from 1961 onwards. The numbers for 1983 and later are actual AEC results while earlier ones are estimates, mostly by Malcolm Mackerras. Added to these are Mackerras's estimates for 1937 to 1958. Note it is only for the last several decades that both major parties have routinely contested every electorate and before that they often didn't bother in those they had no chance in. In 1954, for example, seven seats were uncontested, which makes Labor's on-paper national vote majority questionable. Adam Carr plugs in estimates for those seven seats and gets a national ALP two-party-preferred vote of 49.75 per cent. (Scroll down to near bottom here.) (Most recently, during the 1998 campaign a candidate died in the safe Labor electorate of Newcastle and so the poll for that seat was held later. If an estimate for Newcastle was included Labor's national vote would be about 0.1 per cent higher.) This table will eventually contain estimates for all other federal elections held under preferential voting, that is those from 1919 to 1934. Below are swings to Labor. |
ALP two-party-preferred swings 1937 to 2013 |
| Election | National | NSW | Vic | Qld | WA | SA | Tas | ACT | NT |
| 21.9.1940 | +0.9 | +5.4 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -4.2 | NA | NA |
| 21.8.1943 | +7.9 | +8.5 | +6.0 | +5.4 | +13.9 | +14.2 | +6.4 | NA | NA |
| 28.9.1946 | -4.4 | -6.1 | -2.8 | -7.6 | -5.4 | -0.9 | -3.1 | NA | NA |
| 10.12.1949 | -5.1 | -6.1 | -2.1 | -4.5 | -11.2 | -6.7 | -5.7 | NA | NA |
| 28.4.51 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.9 | NA | NA |
| 29.5.54 | +1.3 | +1.9 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +2.3 | +1.2 | +2.5 | NA | NA |
| 10.12.55 | -4.0 | -3.6 | -9.4 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.0 | NA | NA |
| 22.11.58 | -0.7 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -2.6 | -5.5 | -1.1 | +1.9 | NA | NA |
| 9.12.61 | +4.7 | +5.0 | +3.3 | +9.3 | +2.7 | +4.4 | +6.2 | NA | NA |
| 30.11.63 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -2.0 | -2.6 | +0.3 | -0.9 | -1.5 | NA | NA |
| 26.11.66 | -4.3 | -5.4 | -3.2 | -3.8 | +1.9 | -10.9 | -0.6 | NA | NA |
| 25.10.69 | +7.1 | +7.7 | +5.6 | +5.6 | +6.9 | +11.8 | +2.2 | +15.8 | NA |
| 2.12.72 | +2.5 | +3.8 | +5.5 | -0.4 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +4.4 | -3.6 | +4.7 |
| 18.5.74 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +0.2 | -4.1 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -5.1 | -8.3 | +1.8 |
| 13.12.75 | -7.4 | -8.1 | -6.8 | -5.6 | -7.3 | -7.6 | -11.3 | -10.4 | -2.2 |
| 10.12.77 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +2.2 | -1.3 | +3.8 | -0.3 | +5.0 | +2.4 |
| 18.10.80 | +4.2 | +2.8 | +6.2 | +4.9 | +6.8 | +0.9 | +3.3 | +4.3 | +1.3 |
| 5.3.83 | +3.6 | +3.7 | +3.8 | +2.6 | +8.3 | +2.7 | -3.5 | +6.9 | +3.1 |
| 1.12.84 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -4.1 | -0.6 | +3.1 | -3.5 | -3.3 |
| 11.7.87 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -0.8 | +1.6 | +0.1 | -1.4 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +3.6 |
| 24.3.90 | -0.9 | +1.8 | -4.8 | +0.9 | -3.8 | -0.7 | +1.0 | -4.7 | +2.8 |
| 13.3.93 | +1.5 | +2.3 | +4.3 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -2.2 | +6.8 | +2.7 | +0.3 |
| 2.3.96 | -5.1 | -6.9 | -1.5 | -8.7 | -2.0 | -4.6 | -3.1 | -5.7 | -5.7 |
| 3.10.98 | +4.6 | +4.1 | +3.2 | +7.2 | +5.5 | +4.2 | +5.7 | +7.0 | +0.9 |
| 10.11.01 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -1.0 | +0.4 | -1.4 | +1.9 |
| 9.10.04 | -1.8 | -0.3 | -3.1 | -2.2 | -3.8 | -0.3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | -0.3 |
| 24.11.07 | +5.4 | +5.6 | +5.3 | +7.5 | +2.1 | +6.8 | +2.0 | +1.9 | +3.3 |
| 21.08.10 | -2.6 | -4.8 | +1.0 | -5.6 | -3.2 | +0.8 | +4.4 | -1.7 | -4.7 |
| 07.09.2013 | -3.7 | -3.2 | -5.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -5.5 | -9.4 | -1.8 | -1.1 |
Swings are to Labor; negative numbers indicate a positive swing to the Coalition.