Vic election result
Lies and Stats version
Attempts to explain the inexplicable produced
the old standards this week.
Bracks stormed home because voters prefer the devil they know in uncertain
times. They had reform fatigue. Opposition pre-selections were crook.
the preposterous “the voters always get it right” got a guernsey, although
hearing it from the losing side was a first.
make no mistake, last Saturday could do with an explanation. To provide some
context, John Howard’s landslide victory over Paul Keating almost seven years
ago was a five percent swing that gave the parties 53.6 to 46.4 percent two
party preferred. The post Dismissal election in December 1975 result was 55.7 to
44.3 percent. And the most lop-sided in sixty years, the 1966 Vietnam poll, was
57 to 43.
Victorian state elections, the last big shift was in 1992 - five percent to
install Jeff Kennett with 56 to 44.
then, a week ago, Victorians deliberately, without fuss, proved the opinion
polls right by constructing an eight percent swing to put the major parties on
58 to 42. A record set, just like that.
you really believe the Bracks smile was so winning, memories of Jeff so awful
and a Doyle premiership so unthinkable, the result defies analysis.
like this: all Victoria did was follow a path set by New South Wales and
their elections in 1999 and 2001 respectively, both states took a one term Labor
administration with a shaky hold on power and gave it a thumping majority.
Beattie bagged 73 percent of lower house seats and Bob Carr 59.
Bracks looks like getting 70.
Labor’s Jim Bacon doing something comparable in Tasmania under proportional
representation earlier this year, something is afoot in Australian electoral
not as simple as punters choosing to balance parties between spheres of
government, because Tasmania and Victoria backed a Beazley government last year.
there is a murky correlation between state and federal voting.
this: the total swing to the federal government last year was two percent. Most
of it came from NSW, which moved by four percent.
popular “Sydney is different” explanation falls flat because the most rabid
seats were outside the capital. Gilmore, around Nowra on the state’s south
coast, topped the national list of swingers with over ten percent. Neighbouring
Cunningham and Throsby also made the top five. No Victorian seat was in the top
was two years after the big Carr win. It was also nine months after Beattie’s,
and there was no coincidence in Queensland being the next biggest swinging state
to John Howard in 2001.
back to Victorians, who put on their own version of the state election show last
a site to behold, but we’ve seen it all before. And if Queensland and NSW are
any guide, Victoria, having lanced the boil, will move back towards the
Coalition at the next election federal.