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two decades of Newspolls

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federal election 2001

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Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

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Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

Newspoll - not so accurate in the states.

Gary Morgan may have been left scrambling to retrieve credibility after November 10 last year but Newspoll shouldn't feel too pleased with themselves. On Thursday 8 November the Australian published the Newspoll data in the first three columns below - a state by state divvy up of the two party preferred votes. The last 2 columns show the actual figures on election day.

State

Newspoll
Coalition 2pp

Newspoll
Labor 2pp

Actual
Coalition 2pp

Actual
Labor 2pp

New South Wales

50.5 49.5 51.7 48.3

Victoria

53.5 46.5 47.9 52.1

Queensland

52.5 47.5 54.9 45.1

Western Australia

53.5 46.5 51.6 48.4

South Australia

55.5 44.5 54.1 45.9

Victoria is out by a mile - almost six percentage points. New South Wales was the most accurate, being wrong by about one percent.

What went wrong? Was the margin of error with individual state numbers too great? Or did Newspoll just arse it when they aggregated to the correct winner - although with a wildly exaggerated margin. (Taken on the Wednesday and Thursday, their final poll had the Coalition ahead 53 to 47 percent - a landslide of 1996 proportions. Actual result was 51 to 49, which is a small enough lead to actually be a loss - ask Mr Beazley in 1998.)

Was Morgan actually correct right up until last few days, choc full of images of boat people? (That's his story, and it's not out of the question.) We'll never know.

The Australian, Edition 1THU 08 NOV 2001, Page 006

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED: HOW EACH STATE WOULD VOTE
Question: In the federal election for the House of Representatives to be held on Saturday the 10th of November, to which party will you give your second preference?
(Latest poll: Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4 2001)

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