The new prime minister, Julia Gillard, is a creature of the Labor Party. She is from Melbourne (before that Adelaide) but apparently like all good ALP operators has an obsession with western Sydney.
In signalling her shift in population policy (or emphasis or whatever), she yacked about that part of the world. This is a very Labor thing to [...]
It’s back to the future with western Sydney
Jula Gillard and tyranny of the present
Julia Gillard gave a charming press conference, therefore she’ll defeat Abbott! This seems to be the view. Hey, let’s all think in the present.
Julia talked alot about communicating better – a very Kevin thing to do. Proof will be in the pudding, but she has not so far shown much inclination to go out and argue [...]
After the votes are counted …
Some day this election campaign is going to end. [A week later update: a coincidence.]
When it does, it is very very likely that by 7:15pm AEST on election Saturday we will know who has won. People like to talk about hung parliaments! and we won’t know the result for days! but the chances of these will be miniscule, as [...]
Newspoll says 51 to 49
From primaries of 41 to 35, Greens a whopping 16. Think about what sort of people that 16 might comprise and who they’ll end up voting for (either directly or via preferences).
Both leaders unpopular. Tables here.
In other news … Industrial Relations is a killer
Today’s Essential poll, reported by the Men from Crikey, included the question: “If they [...]
WA at the 2010 election
Read Pollbludger on the Westpoll that reckons 50 50 in Brand, nonsensical from the given primary votes (William reckons more like 52 to 48) and odd talk about boundaries. And of course the usual small sample.
Pattersons can be silly sometimes.
Current national polls have the government’s 2pp about 3 percent below the last election. All else being [...]
Greens at the 2010 election?
See Peter Hartcher in SMH on the Greens. He notes that the opinion polls tend to overstate Green support. (Newspoll used to understate it, but joined the others after the last election to include Greens in readout of parties.)
As he also notes, Greens will very likely hold the balance of power all by themselves, ie Labor + [...]
Labor on skidrow? This and that
Tis the Season to be Mickey
Check out this Daily Telegraph piece with leaked polling by Liberal guru etc Mark Textor which got a good run on television and radio yesterday. It shows Tony Abbott is … wait for it … “more popular” then Kevin Rudd in four marginal NSW seats.
Mark didn’t measure voting intentions. Only approval. Gee that’s useful. (He [...]
Don’t know much about UK politics, but …
I know what I like reckon. Another observational post largely based on specific ignorance.
Electoral bias
Everyone is noting the electoral architecture favours the Labour party, that the Conservatives needed significantly more of the vote to overhaul Labour in seats. This time, the Tories got about the same vote as Labour did in 2005, but not nearly as many seats and short [...]
Australians get old and die – good for Labor?
When federal Labor was in opposition, the tales we heard and read about why they were in diabolical electoral trouble, destined to languish forever, seemed endless: the party had lost its working class base, it had low membership, little talent, stood for nothing, preselecting poor candidates, demographics against it and so on.
Now it’s the Coalition’s turn.
John Watson [...]
Uninformed jottings on British election
Interesting article by Peter Kellner, the head of British online pollsters YouGov on their election. Article here.
I do not know much about British politics, but some things apply universally.
According to Kellner,
to become the largest party the Lib Dems must win around 38 per cent support … unless the Lib Dems lose support as quickly they have [...]