Me in Inside Story on the silliness of the idea, here.
Do not adjust your sets. Coalition on 43, Labor on 33, Greens on 15. Tables here. (It’s 52 to 48 if preferences are distributed Newspoll-style.)
In the Oz a Mining industry sponsered newspoll finds the RTSP rather unpopular in marginal Queensland and Western Australia, but no voting intentions.
Wednesday morning update: In answer to a couple of questions in [...]
Some day this election campaign is going to end. [A week later update: a coincidence.]
When it does, it is very very likely that by 7:15pm AEST on election Saturday we will know who has won. People like to talk about hung parliaments! and we won’t know the result for days! but the chances of these will be miniscule, as [...]
Read Pollbludger on the Westpoll that reckons 50 50 in Brand, nonsensical from the given primary votes (William reckons more like 52 to 48) and odd talk about boundaries. And of course the usual small sample.
Pattersons can be silly sometimes.
Current national polls have the government’s 2pp about 3 percent below the last election. All else being [...]
Me on the Rudd government and the upcoming election, in Inside Story, here.
See Peter Hartcher in SMH on the Greens. He notes that the opinion polls tend to overstate Green support. (Newspoll used to understate it, but joined the others after the last election to include Greens in readout of parties.)
As he also notes, Greens will very likely hold the balance of power all by themselves, ie Labor + [...]
Lots of people seem to think Kevin Rudd will be gone some time during the next term, “even if” he wins the election. But if Labor increases its majority (still my best guess) then he’ll be King once more: he always knew what he was doing, has opposition leaders for breakfast and so on.
On the other hand, Julia [...]