Electorate tables

Federal election 2013 and other.


Bolt from the blue

THIS afternoon a strange thing happened on my Twitter stream. I started receiving angry tweets about something I’d written at 1:13pm yesterday (Saturday).

In addition someone found my email address and sent a note that I’m a “low life scumbag … you and your fellow left wing/Green ratbags have absolutely no shame … You should be ashamed of yourself and your employer should sack you.”

“Scumbag” got a mention in the odd tweet too. Most of them were from people I’d never heard from before, who don’t follow me and who I don’t follow. I’ve retweeted most of them, so you can see them on my account if you could be bothered wading through.

Then I worked out what happened. That nice Andrew Bolt had given me a plug on the country’s most widely-read blog.

Now continued here.

A post …

just because ….

Election 2013 census table gallery

Apart from archives there’s nothing new to see at this site since I started blogging at the Oz.

Except for the federal election census and seat table gallery. Check it out here.

Nonsense reporting about direct enrolment

This was published in the Australian on 12 December 2012. It is pasted here un
Here are some simple facts about the electoral roll and direct enrolment.
There are currently around 14.3 million people on the electoral roll. At the last election, in 2010, there were 14.1 million. The AEC estimates that around 1.5 million eligible voters living in Australia are not on the roll, and puts the 2010 number at 1.4 million.
So about one in ten eligible votes are not on the roll.
But—and this bit seems to cause confusion among some journalists and academics—it is not true to say most of those 1.5 million are young people. Most of them are in fact over 30. There are more unenrolled people over 50 than aged 18–19. I spelt this out in a recent post.
And it is not true to say most of the 1.5 million have never been enrolled. Most of them have, but dropped off at some stage when they moved home.
So young never-enrolled are a small subset of the “missing 1.5 million”. This is important.
Another misunderstanding, or assumption behind shock-horror analysis, is that direct enrolment will get all these unenrolled into the roll. It won’t. It won’t even come close, not even by 2020.
As you might expect, the commission is proceeding with care, slowly.
As Milanda Rout in the Australian has written: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-in-campaign-to-mobilise-the-young/story-fn59niix-1226534036231
“The AEC expects to automatically enrol 500,000 to 600,000 over the next two to three electoral cycles as a result of the new laws. A number of the remaining one million “missing” voters may not be picked up under the new system, including the homeless, indigenous people and some non-English speaking communities”
So only about a third of the “missing” will eventually be scooped up—after four to seven years.
So, what about the 2013 election? How many electors will be directly enrolled by then? I reckon 200 thousand is as good a guess as any. It assumes some low-hanging fruit in the early stages of the process.
The unenrolled are disproportionately young, and mobile, and renters, all people who lean left-of-centre more than the rest. (There’s much overlap between those groups of course.)
Earlier this year an ABC 730 segment and Drum article asserted that the unenrolled would favour the ALP, after preferences, by around 10 per cent more than the rest of the country. I think that’s crazy. It may apply to the very youngest age cohort, the 18 to 19 year olds, but not the rest. I reckon it would be less than 3 per cent across all age-groups, but let’s call it 3 per cent for the sake of argument.
Let’s also pretend every one of the extra 200 thousand turns out to vote next year. In reality, for pretty obvious reasons, we can be sure they’ll turn out at a lower rate than everyone else.
(NSW started direct enrolling before its 2011 election and about 80 per cent of them turned out.)
And we’ll also assume all of them will vote formal, when for similar reasons we can be pretty sure they’ll register a higher informal rate than everyone else.
Finally, let’s apply it to the last election, which again is overly generous, as 200 thousand will be a smaller proportion of total voters in 2013 than 2010.
Here are the sums.
In 2010 the two-party-preferred votes for the ALP and Coalition were 6,216,445 and 6,185,918 respectively, 50.12 to 49.88 per cent. If we add 200 thousand more votes, favouring the ALP 53.12 46.88,
Labor on 50.17 and Coalition on 49.83. A difference of 0.05 per cent of the total vote.
It would be vary a little across electorates of course. And 0.04 can make a difference in close seats. But no seat was that close in 2010.
In 2010 several hundred thousand people tried to vote but couldn’t because they weren’t on the roll. If direct enrolment brings that number down, it will be a good thing.
How can making the electoral roll more accurate be a “rort”?
Mr Pyne needs a Bex and a lie down and so do a few others.

*Overseas Aussies is a whole different category. There are around a million of them, but less than 100,000 on the roll and voting.

Mumble has moved to the Oz


Mumble moves to the Oz

Dear Mumble-readers, Mumble moves today to the Australian. It will be a mainly online gig, doing the kind of stuff I’ve done here but more frantically and often.

I love youse all, thanks for indulging me at this place and I invite you to continue at the new one. If only to judge if/how the piper-payer calls the tune.

New site here. Comments here closed; any comments there please. (They will eventually appear, just working that out.)

Do not adjust your set

Great news for NSW premier in latest Newspoll

Kristina Keneally is still preferred premier in the latest NSW Newspoll in the Oz!

Irony on It’s time to roll Barry O’Farrell who languishes on both the preferred premier and approval ratings. Barry can’t win on these numbers. Irony off

(Oh, and the Coalition is ahead in the arcane “voting intentions” measure 61 to 39.)

And another thing: tweets to Kevin

You’d have read about the former PM (and wife) continuing to tweet. If you’re wondering why, you can see the tweets that have been sent his way, including many nice ones, here. [Update: oh, it doesn't work. Try going here and entering @kevinruddpm into the search box.]

Westpoll says federal WA vote of 54.5 to 45.5

Pollbludger has the info.