This Friday snapshot of Sportingbet odds still applies today. Anyone crazy enough to bet on Malcolm Turnbull leading those federal Liberals to the next election can still only get a derisory $2.00. I would not accept anything under $10.
Have Hockey and Abbott covered, Robb and Bishop are not worth betting on, but am a little worried about Member for Dickson.
And “Any other”? That’s getting into Andrews, Ruddock, Minchin, Pyne …. territory. Still, few had heard of Lord Downer before early 1994 …
11:29AEST update: I tell a lie, odds are moving, currently as below. (Click for better quality)
Six months ago I think the Hockey argument was sound enough but the rumour that he doesn’t have an interest in the leadership makes sense to me. It’s not just that he probably doubts his own ability to win if he’s not stupid but got a weeks old baby, a two year old toddler and a child that will start school in an election year. If he won the upcoming election it would mean spending a helluva lot of time away from the family.
Robb I consider even less of a chance because unless I’ve missed something he’s battling depression and has resigned from the front bench.
Powers of deduction therefore suggest that Abbott is probably the candidate with a desire to lead whom a significant chunk of the party has genuine support for but he’d probably be quite a polarizing figure. Peter you suggested back when Nelson was leader that whilst the party had lost faith in Nelson alot of them wouldn’t be able to abide Turnbull and that Bishop might therefore be a compromise candidate. If she wasn’t willing to nominate then I think Dutton might become leader in very Lathamesque circumstances.
I just put a tenner on Abbott and fives on Bishop, Dutton and other. In truth I’m more scared of Turnbull than Hockey. If Abbott decides he just doesn’t want to lead a party to certain defeat I’m not sure Bishop or Dutton will have anymore support than Turnbull in much the same way I don’t think Rudd or Latham would have won a leadership challenge against Crean.
The Lib who seems to be emerging with an enhanced reputation from the present chaos is Ian McFarlane. I know his vocal resemblance to Tommy Raudonikis is a disadvantage but he comes across as knowing his business and is able to work with others – more than can be said for some of the other contenders.
Kevin Andrews is being pushed by KEVIN ANDREWS. Think of all the stereotypes Kevin can cover. He would be brawling with Tony Abbot for the National Civic Council vote. Rome may need to intervene.
Is Kevin Andrews doing a “Michael Heseltine”? He was the person that challenged Maggie Thatcher first and got around 40% of the party room which was enough to seal her fate but did not win the next leadership contest.
It reminded me of the CNNNN episode which began with the story that Alan Cadman was challenging John Howard for the Liberal Leadership. They kept including door stops from Parliament House of MPs being asked about the Cadman challenge. They all kept denying it, often with great mirth, and the program would cut back to Craig Ruecastle and Julian Morrow on the panel who opined that each denial just proved the challenge was on.
Except in this case there will soon be a vacancy.