According to Sportingbet, above, punters no longer expect Malcolm Turnbull to last until the next election. (I think even money would be about $1.85 once you allow for the vig, although I stand to be corrected.)
Punters are not the sharpest collective knife in the drawer, but they sometimes get there eventually.
Folks are divided, however, and quite reasonably, about who will take over.
Is Joe Hockey really the most likely successor? On the ETS, that would be groundhog day. Surely Tony Abbott is more likely now. If he wants it.
And if it weren’t for the unsafeness of his seat, Dutts might have been the dark horse. Perhaps he is anyway.
(And can we assume whoever takes over from Malcolm is there until the election? Very likely we can.)
People skills!
Surely the fact that between Mal and the next likely contender is daylight is the only reason that he is still where he is – so what has changed?
I don’t see him going, mainly because whatever his other characteristics as a person, he has persistence in spades. If I am wrong, and he does, then I would expect a carousel of would be leaders to follow.
Does Abbott look like good money then at $4.25 if he is the alternative choice of the right of the party?
And wouldn’t you say Abbott is the type who is willing to “go down fighting the good fight”* rather than let the party drift too far away from his own view point?
* From a conservatives point of view.
The SMH is claiming that “Kevin Andrews has begun trailing his coat” for the leadership! ( http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-threatens-to-dump-rebels-20091120-iqv2.html ).
Is it too late for Phil Ruddock?
Or Wilson Tuckey? They are all spring chickens compared to 81 year-old Billy Hughes leading what was left of the UAP to the 1943 election. Perhaps they need to destroy the village to save it.
well there is another 2% to labor 105+ seats sits fine with me
Haven’t you got it back to front?
1.85 implies a 54% probability.
After fiddling around with the numbers in a spreadsheet, I get Turnbull’s “real” price as 2.78. Which makes sense; bookies are stingy not generous. Everything else you said is perfectly correct.
The above odds translate to the following:
Turnbull 36%
Hockey 31%
Abbott 17%
Robb 4%
Bishop 3%
Dutton 3%
Other 6%
DW: if you reread post you’ll see that my point was that Turnbull is now on less than 50% according to punters. So not the wrong way round.
Yes – this morning I {unsuccessfully} commented on Glenn Milnes’s article in the Telly, saying that we were headed for Abbott (at the election), followed by Hockey, followed by Dutton followed by etc etc