In the Oz. This randomly selected bunch of 1200 seems particularly satisfied with the Rudd government; the gods are punishing Malcolm Turnbull for something.
Graphics here.
Note the ‘national debt’ question. Newspoll presumably meant ‘government debt’. Which did respondents take it to mean? Does it matter?
(National debt, the amount owed by Australians to foreigners, was of course the subject of the Coalition’s 1995 ‘debt truck’. Under John Howard it continued its trajectory roofwards but was no longer seen as evil.)
@Peter Assuming for the moment that Turnbull is still leader at the next election, do you foresee a repeat of the UK’s 2001 `quiet landslide,’ where the opposition was predicted to lose enormously and did?
(the reason for the Turnbull caveat is that I suspect an Abbott leadership would result in a very noisy landslide)
RJ, I would expect the gap to narrow during the campaign but it still to be a landslide. UK’s first past the post tends to give more extreme seat results than our preferential voting.
‘Noise’ is in the eye/ear of beholder!
The Cons were able to acquire to very small swing in their favour though. It remains to be seen whether it’s possible for the Libs to do the same.
There do seem to be parallels with the state of the Conservatives post Thatcher and the Liberals post Howard. It would be interesting to see some polling charts for Labours 1997-01 term to do some comparisons.
Peter!
Any opinions on the Higgins by-election? Will Labor run a candidate? If Tim Costello runs as an independant could this Liberal seat be lost?
Mayo saw a 10% primary vote swing against the Liberals (from 51% to 41%), if this is replicated in Higgins it would result in a 43% Liberal primary vote.
I suppose a strong Green showing (15 – 25% perhaps) and a strong independant candidate such as Tim Costello, or Labor (20 – 30%) could push one of them over the line.
Opinions?
It could happen Rationalsit but I suspect unlikely. Firstly, Higgins doesn’t have the same minor party support that Mayo does and secondly I tend to think that a lot of the Liberal support in Higgins is more locked in. Old support (like old money) if you will.
If Tim Costello ran he would blow the race open and I would say would be even money, but I don’t know why he would, he can hardly do more than he is in his current role (unless he wrangles a ministerial from the Rudd Gov, which would be tempting for both parties – please do that!). But I don’t think he’d do that to Peter.
20/1 that Labor will run a candidate and I’m probably being stingy.