Great news for NSW premier in latest Newspoll

Kristina Keneally is still preferred premier in the latest NSW Newspoll in the Oz!

Irony on It’s time to roll Barry O’Farrell who languishes on both the preferred premier and approval ratings. Barry can’t win on these numbers. Irony off

(Oh, and the Coalition is ahead in the arcane “voting intentions” measure 61 to 39.)

And another thing: tweets to Kevin

You’d have read about the former PM (and wife) continuing to tweet. If you’re wondering why, you can see the tweets that have been sent his way, including many nice ones, here. [Update: oh, it doesn't work. Try going here and entering @kevinruddpm into the search box.]

15 Responses to “Great news for NSW premier in latest Newspoll”

  1. edwardo says:

    Ah but the primary vote lead for the Coalition is even MORE significant making the 2pp MAGICALLY VALID (okay enough silly twisted logic).

  2. edwardo says:

    (ironically the above is far closer to true here than at a Federal election. Nonetheless I welcome Barry and our new Liberal overlords)

  3. Mumbles uses heavy-handed sarcasm to sledge-hammer home his point:

    Kristina Keneally is still preferred premier in the latest NSW Newspoll in the Oz!
    [irony laid on thick and fast]
    (Oh, and the Coalition is ahead in the arcane “voting intentions” measure 61 to 39.)

    NO one is saying that “preferred leader” is a magic wand which can wave away all ill-tidings. All it has to do is show how the party might do better than it otherwise would have, assuming a change of leadership.

    The elevation of KK to premier may well help the ALP prevent the forthcoming election from turning into a complete annihilation. I can say for certainty that the Iemma-Costa-della Bosca-Tripoldi axis was arousing revulsion on a personal, way beyond political, level. These were not attractive candidates. (Couldnt the NSW ALP Right find any good looking Italian males to stand for Parliament?)

    I will go out on a limb and predict that the ALP will get north of 40% on two-party preferred. And possibly do better than expected in some up-for-grabs seats.

    The evidence is that leaders do make a difference, sometimes a decisive one. The more so as one ascends the political status-tree – from state to federal. And the more so as we approach the celebrity-obsessed present rather than the loyalty-obsessed past.

    To give mumbles his due, the leadership obsession is of relatively recent vintage. van Onselen and Errington report on how little difference leadership made in state contests over nineties and noughties:

    Victorious state Labor leaders Bob Carr (18 per cent), Steve Bracks (19 per cent) in Victoria, Mike Rann (14 per cent) in South Australia and Geoff Gallop (19 per cent) in Western Australia, all lagged badly behind their opponents, each registering preferred premier ratings in the teens, just as Crean has in the preferred prime minister stakes. Yet in each instance as opposition leader they ultimately won the election.

    I think that the mention of Crean here did not strengthen their case, but lets not dwell on that bit of the past.

    They go on to analyse the mercurial role of Keating as a leader in the political contests of the nineties:

    On a rare occasion where the federal opposition leader led the prime minister for a sustained period, when John Hewson was preferred leader to Paul Keating before the 1993 election, results again showed the irrelevance of the preferred leader poll.

    The natural order of affairs is for incumbents to outrate their opponents in polls, even when the Government is unpopular.
    Just look at Keating versus Howard in 1996, where Keating ran on strong leadership, led Howard in the preferred prime minister stakes, yet was thrashed at the election.

    Things have changed since Keating left the scene. Howard was preferred PM against both Beazley (1998) and Latham (2004). In both cases the ALP led the L/NP well in the two-party preferred voting intention polls until deep into the campaign. Yet the L/NP won both elections where it counted, in marginal seats.

    This tells me that preferred PM is a good predictor of swinging voters intentions before they have made the critical decision to switch their vote.

    Most people don’t care all that much about policies or parties. So the leadership “ticker” made a difference to swinging voters considering having a politician as dinner guest for the next three years.

  4. Graeme says:

    A bird, untimely kicked from its nest, will tweet more than ever.

  5. Your new home is hugely amusing. Good luck!

  6. [...] and here is a lesson for those observers that fixate on approval ratings (2.5 cheers out of 3 for Peter Brent), Joe Hockey would have been more personally popular but would he have got the Liberals to this [...]

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