Me in the Oz.
i only see negatives for the liberal party. if tony abbott can make the liberals look good, the hell most likely has air conditioning.
Peter is right – what is the logic of dumping a PM when your party is in a reasonable position in the polls?
This is the revenge of the factions – from the geniuses who brought you the morally bankrupt and politically ineffective NSW labour government
Totally agree with what you have written Peter. A Labor victory was all but assured. It was going to be pretty easy to portray Abbott as risky, and demonstrate Australia’s solid economic position relative to the rest of the world during an election campaign.
Now, anything could happen.
It’s clear that Kev was never popular within the party, so the backroom boys have taken the first chance they could to dump him. They’re good at factional politics and dividing up the spoils but they appear to be hopeless at political management aimed at the people who matter – the voters. NSW is a perfect example.
What do you think about Swannie as deputy?
agree with the broad thrust of your argument Peter.
one caveat which has been gnawing away for the past couple of weeks is the concern i have/had about Rudd becoming increasingly (in my observation) an object of ridicule. My wife was a Rudd supporter but she thought the lemon ad was very funny and very accurate.
I guess the other caveat is Abbott’s often displayed inability to deal effectively with women opponents.
The chances of an election campaign blow up/gaffe by the mad monk have increased dramatically i would have thought.
It pains me to say that I agree with you Peter, labor was spooked into this totally silly course of action.
Rudd’s popularity all but won them the election in 2007-and it is sad to see such a display of moral cowardice from people who owe much of their own career to this very popularity.
Will I vote labor in the coming elction? I doubt it.
Will I vote liberal under Abbott( Howard heavy)? Of course not!!
Can I vote Green – no don’t think so..they are as culpable as the libs on climate change policy inaction..
Hello donkey vote..
I agree with Doug’s comments. This is a bad sign for democracy. I also agree with Catalyst – won’t be voting (I have fallen off the electoral roll and I’m not going to make an effort to bother getting back on).
However it is all very entertaining.
Agree with Peter it’s a risk, and on the unwisdom of hurrying to an election.
Charisma may be overrated: but these days a lack of communication skills and trustable personality really seem to matter: ask the late Gordon Brown. Brown like Gillard was a well-established deputy toppling a once popular PM to whom the electorate had turned deaf, confronting a conservative opposition that was not inherently popular. Gillard unlike Brown takes over a young government but needs time, as you say, to establish a presence and our short cycles don’t give much time.
So let’s see.
As for prognostications and bets, there are too many counter-factuals now. We’ll never know what Rudd 10 would have delivered electorally.
“Writing in The Oz” – If you lie down with dogs you will end up with fleas.
We are a country where abilities don’t count but charisma does. Mr Rudd made planted some revolutionary tree-achievements for Australia and now Ms Gillard ‘picks the fruit”. They are both capable individuals but it shows how Change Agents suffer in their quest for doing good. Let’s hope Ms Gillard wins and rids us all of “Work choices” in its many forms.
Reasonable analysis but the bookies don’t agree.
The ALP has come in quite a bit since Julia’s ascension.
I also think she will thrash Abbott (and he will probably like it )
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In 2010 I am Parliamentary Fellow at the Parliamentary Library, looking at use of new media in this election year.
I'm also a Visiting Fellow at the ANU.
Am on twitter, mostly just observing, at twitter.com/mumbletwits
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