Assuming still awake ….
It’s a stinker for Rudd – why else would they go early?
Pat I agree, it is likely that Newspoll is bad for the government if it is released early.
But imagine if the poll is contrary to all expectations. What will the narrative be then?
The hype surrounding these polls are such humbug. We won’t really understand the mood of the electorate until after the election is announced. Only then will most people seriously consider all alternatives and make a judgement.
At some point the opposition must take their share of the limelight. Then some of those voters who have deserted the government, but who don’t like the alternative, will in all likelihood drift back to the goverment (reluctantly).
My guess is that if an election were held tomorrow the government would still win, regardless of the results of Newspoll. In the meantime the hype will continue.
I recall before the last election that liberal supporters continually said that Howard’s numbers would improve when the election got closer or was announced. It didn’t happen and I am not sure why anyone thinks it will happen now. Rudd is not doing badly because people aren’t concentrating on Abbott. He is doing badly all on his own.
Interesting that the government’s drop in primary vote hasn’t flowed across to the opposition.
That tells me that although people are cranky with the government they don’t much like the alternative.
Compulsory preferential voting means people have to make a choice. That is why the government will get back some of its lost vote.
As for 2007 I think you’ll find all polls had a fair chunk of the coalition’s drop in primary vote flowing straight to the opposition. In otherwords people had already decided what they wanted to do. The current opinion polls (thus far) are not indicating this.
Will be interesting to see the poll purely to make a judgement of the degree of difficulty of Peter keeping the secret until 11:30 pm.
Mail (will not be shared) (required)
This is by no means a complete list of good sites. Its size is a function of my (in)competence. Will work it out eventually.
Contact me on elect followed by 'AT' sign followed by mumble.com.au.
In 2010 I am Parliamentary Fellow at the Parliamentary Library, looking at use of new media in this election year.
I'm also a Visiting Fellow at the ANU.
Am on twitter, mostly just observing, at twitter.com/mumbletwits
Powered by WordPress and the PressPlay Theme
Copyright © 2013 Mumble