A reasonably happy result for Rudd. From primary support of 35, 40 and 15.
In defence of two party preferred
Some people say: forget the estimated opinion poll two party preferred support, Labor can’t win with 35 percent primary vote. They have a point: it’s hard to imagine a Labor victory with such a vote.
But it is even harder to imagine the Coalition winning with 40 percent if Labor gets 35 and the Greens 15.
People are also a bit right when they reckon estimating 2pp from such low major party primaries is a tad unreliable.
But in the end, respondents who tell pollsters they support a minor party/independent are either going to move back to a major party or give their preferences to them. We need some idea of two party preferred. In each seat, it’s what wins.
If the pollsters didn’t give us 2pps we’d have to do it ourselves from the primaries.
The worst argument against 2pp is that apparatchiks in the PM’s office or somewhere don’t believe in them, that when they phone thay say “mate, just give me the primary votes and who has best haircut/nicest personality etc rating.”
We are supposed to defer to these institutionalised, spotty youths who probably had political strategy drummed into them by someone like Wayne “keep it simple mate and stay on message – never mind the personality” Swan?
I think not! I’ll remain a 2pp man, thanks.
Update: Peter (not me) in comments makes the point that if you assume the Green flow to Labor is as low as 2/3 (instead of 4/5 as at last election), and that “others” slightly favour the Coalition as they did in 2007, you end up with the opposition a little ahead on 2pp – say 51 to 49.
But these are of course just assumptions as well.
It would be great if someone did a huge survey of current Green voters and asked them which party came from and where their preferences are likely to go.