Penrith by-election today. Main question is whether two party preferred swing to Liberals begins with ‘1′, a ‘2′ or even - you never know - a ‘3′. [Update: it's about 25. William Bowe reckons this "certainly doesn’t bode well for [Labor] in [federal seat] Lindsay”, but the two things don’t have much to do with each other. Under John Howard the federal Libs won Lindsay four times while state Libs were flogged in Penrith.]
When Kevin Rudd was riding high, bashings of NSW Labor at by-elections weren’t seen as some kind of test for him. They are today, it’s silly, but that’s the way it works.
The Oz reckons Julia Gillard may be leader this time next week. Are there really so many fools in Caucus?
It all seems to hinge on a bunch of about 1200 Australians of voting age who happen to be at home when Newspoll phones them this weekend.
One single survey will tell us bugger all about how the election’s gonna go, but will mightily influence reporting and hence the behaviour of the ALP.
If you get through this one Kevin, perhaps that earlier election is worth considering.
Well with a 23% swing – change is a coming Peter. Maybe the 1 in 40 you predicted needs to be lengthened.
Some very sad commercial Labor leaning blogs tonight.
Shanahan appeared on Lateline on FRI night saying there was a 50% chance that Rudd would be dumped by the end of this coming week. I have to say that he comes over as much more plausible or believable on TV than in the newspaper. He was really given free time on the ABC to spruik his article in the following day’s OZ. He noted the 10 ALP backbenchers who want a leadership change. On TV [and in the OZ] he was pushing the line that this week’s Newspoll was crucial etc. This is one hell of a beat-up. But typical of course of the OZ for the last three years. Eric Beecher in Crikey recently said, after making some scathing remarks about the newspaper,the OZ is the best newspaper in the country. He really means it SHOULD be the best. But as we all know it isn’t. Its reportage as distinct from its commentary is disgraceful.
Make sure you … let us know of the Newspoll Peter
.
“It all seems to hinge on a bunch of about 1200 Australians of voting age who happen to be at home when Newspoll phones them this weekend.”
And who have read van Onselen’s primer and Shanahan’s manifesto on how to deal with Newspoll when they call.
Peter has hinted at one crucial bit of info: Nats are on 4%.
Pushpolling or push publishing BB?
Of course were Rudd to lose, a tragic narrative of what might have been would be required.
“The Oz reckons Julia Gillard may be leader this time next week. Are there really so many fools in Caucus?” –> perhaps.