Penrith by-election today. Main question is whether two party preferred swing to Liberals begins with ‘1′, a ‘2′ or even - you never know - a ‘3′. [Update: it's about 25. William Bowe reckons this "certainly doesn’t bode well for [Labor] in [federal seat] Lindsay”, but the two things don’t have much to do with each other. Under John Howard the federal Libs won Lindsay four times while state Libs were flogged in Penrith.]
When Kevin Rudd was riding high, bashings of NSW Labor at by-elections weren’t seen as some kind of test for him. They are today, it’s silly, but that’s the way it works.
The Oz reckons Julia Gillard may be leader this time next week. Are there really so many fools in Caucus?
It all seems to hinge on a bunch of about 1200 Australians of voting age who happen to be at home when Newspoll phones them this weekend.
One single survey will tell us bugger all about how the election’s gonna go, but will mightily influence reporting and hence the behaviour of the ALP.
If you get through this one Kevin, perhaps that earlier election is worth considering.