It is a fact a modern life that judgements about how a party is “travelling” rest almost solely on the latest published opinion polls. Commentators bring in all sorts of “reasons”, but poll numbers are the main motivation. And it’s the ones published in newspapers that really count: Newspoll, ACNielsen and Galaxy. The latest Morgan face-to-face and Essential have Labor ahead, but they are largely discounted. (I’m not making any judgements about any of these outfits.)
Sadly for Kevin Rudd, this Queen’s birthday weekend means no Newspoll until next week, so last week’s 47 to 53 Nielsen, the worst for federal Labor since early 2006, will continue to inform commentary for another week.
Well, sad depending on what the result would have been had one been conducted over the weekend. Given those recent Morgan and Essential results, a Newspoll worse than that Nielsen seems unlikely.
On Saturday, the West Australian published a terrible survey for federal Labor in WA, 62 to 38 across the state; here.
The sample is only 400. (Anything under 500 earns a Mickey here.)
Still, as Pollbludger notes, last week’s national Nielsen had the same two party preferred WA component from a sample of probably around 150.
As did the previous Nielsen actually, taken over 6-8 May (soon after the RSPT was announced).
Western Australia has the newest (and so most popular) government in the land, the only Coalition one and it’s running strongly against the RSPT. It’s having a large effect there, but whether that ends up meaning much on election day remains to be seen.
Its sad Peter. Imagine how long Curtin would have lasted with this crew after the fall of Singapore or a real setback, it might have been Prime Minister Frank Forde in 1942!
What if newspoll is the same as Nielsen it worse? Morgan is still trending away from labor and it wouldn’t be uncommon for their face to face poll to be 5-6 points in labours favour.
Could julia be pm in a couple of weeks? Where might this sit electorally? Interesting times.
Peter, I dispute the fact that WA is the newest government- what about Tasmania or even South Australia?
As for popularity of the Barnett Government – How do you judge its popularity? It has the West Australian newpaper firmly behind it ( the previous Labor governemner did not) and also the commercial Tv media.
We are the only state not signed up to the new health reforms proposed by Kevni Rudd which are due to start Ist July.
Mr Barnett increased his advisor’s salary by $100,000 and announced savage prioce increase for electricty , gas and water as well as fares.Pensioner’s travel concessions were supposed to be increased but were not.
He also pre the RSPT had announced an increase in mining roylaties – because it was a good idea=- but of course now Labor has proposed an increase its a bad idea.
He had to take over the treasury role because of a scandal involving his treasurer and the only Greens lower house MP – she won the seat from labor, is now an independent and apparantly now sits on the Govt side of the house.
So it depends who you speak to as to how popular Mr Barnett and his government are…
And Westpolls are a joke par excellence especially when Barrie Cassidy of Insiders gives them gravitas!
Newspoll 1998- 5 months out from election
Primary voting intention: Government 34% Labor 45% Others 21% [largest Others component One Nation]
Two party preferred:Government 47% Labor 53%
Satisfaction with PM: 35%
Dissatisfaction with PM:53%
Better PM: Howard 32%; Beazley 38%.
CF current Newspoll
Primary voting intention: Government 35% Coaliton 41% Others 24% [largest Others component Greens]
Two party preferred:Government 51% Coalition 49%
Satisfaction with PM: 36%
Dissatisfaction with PM: 54%
Better PM: Rudd 49%; Abbott 33%.
Considering Howard’s data are from barely more than 2 years after he was elected, where does this leave the unchallenged current narrative that ‘no PM has fallen so low so quickly’? And was anybody arguing that replacment of Howard as PM by his party was inevitable?
Rudd is apeing Howard: the GST = the RSPT. A politically dominant policy. (As revenue raisers they are inverts: the GST irked everyone but faced no loud sectoral opposition).
It’s curious how fears migrate: on several blogs, conservatives have intimated that they fear Rudd will pull a deal with the miners out of the bag. They are reliving Labor fears that Howard was a magician tactician. I doubt there will be a ‘deal’ with the miners; Rudd will tough it out and campaign on the basis of toughness.
I’m wondering if we aren’t entering a period of political flux/void, both state and federal.
Howard’s reign was more than faintly Menziesia: a white, middle Australian conservatism prevailing, a time when governments lingered on. (Of course, Menzies was no more Colossus than Howard; Menzies survived twice by the seat of his pants).
After the Old Strongman falls (again, ‘Strongman’ here is purely perception!) we usually see a series of interregnums. After Pig Iron Ming came 4 PMs in 9 years, after Joh came 5 Premiers in a decade… If Abbott were elected, he’d last no more than a term.
I think Peter is right about WA, Labor would struggle not to lose significant ground if there was a state election.
I’m not so sure about the fate of Hon Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition in the Commonwealth Parliament in the Fed Poll.
Considering the talent he has in Cabinet Colin is doing an amazingly good job. Arguably better than Carpenter managed with his cabinet overflowing with talent (comparably anyway).
Catalyst, in the interest of a balanced argument, did Anna Bligh not increase her new chief of staffs pay by a similar amount soon after becoming premier? (read Mike Kaiser.. yes the same Labor stooge guilty of vote rigging none the less)
Whats good for the goose..
A question for catalyst: If Barnett and the Coalition in WA is performing as poorly as you suggest, why do 2 polls (Nielson and the West newspaper poll) both show very strong Federal Coalition support ?
Current WA polls are like the immediate post-Tampa national polls in 2001 they pick up voter views on the current big issue rather than reliably indicating voter behaviour at an election. RSPT public opinion seems split 50:50 when this is the case a govt best off sticking with a policy and using the authority of govt to control the debate, GST in 1998 similar. The Curtin govt: had some very good senior ministers but it had a long tail
It’s kind of pathetic. Opinion polling has an important place in accountability between elections. But they have become the narrative whenever politics drifts or is in a lull, and not just for the junkies. ABC PM just ran a 5 minute piece whose only purpose was to repeatedly assert that the Rudd government was on hold awaiting the next opinion poll.
Colin,
Catalyst’s argument seems to be that any poll showing good results for the Coalition is by definition rabidly biased and agenda-driven and quite possibly even from a Murdoch publication. So the question of “good results” for the Liberals in WA is neatly side-stepped.
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