It is a fact a modern life that judgements about how a party is “travelling” rest almost solely on the latest published opinion polls. Commentators bring in all sorts of “reasons”, but poll numbers are the main motivation. And it’s the ones published in newspapers that really count: Newspoll, ACNielsen and Galaxy. The latest Morgan face-to-face and Essential have Labor ahead, but they are largely discounted. (I’m not making any judgements about any of these outfits.)
Sadly for Kevin Rudd, this Queen’s birthday weekend means no Newspoll until next week, so last week’s 47 to 53 Nielsen, the worst for federal Labor since early 2006, will continue to inform commentary for another week.
Well, sad depending on what the result would have been had one been conducted over the weekend. Given those recent Morgan and Essential results, a Newspoll worse than that Nielsen seems unlikely.
On Saturday, the West Australian published a terrible survey for federal Labor in WA, 62 to 38 across the state; here.
The sample is only 400. (Anything under 500 earns a Mickey here.)
As did the previous Nielsen actually, taken over 6-8 May (soon after the RSPT was announced).
Western Australia has the newest (and so most popular) government in the land, the only Coalition one and it’s running strongly against the RSPT. It’s having a large effect there, but whether that ends up meaning much on election day remains to be seen.