Do not adjust your sets. Coalition on 43, Labor on 33, Greens on 15. Tables here. (It’s 52 to 48 if preferences are distributed Newspoll-style.)
In the Oz a Mining industry sponsered newspoll finds the RTSP rather unpopular in marginal Queensland and Western Australia, but no voting intentions.
Wednesday morning update: In answer to a couple of questions in comments. If someone said to me: “here is a nice new car, the keys will be yours if you correctly nominate, now, the number of seats Labor will win at the next federal election,” I would answer …. “86″.
If this does turn out to be in the ballpark, then of course current opinion poll numbers won’t be repeated on polling day. They will change.
There will be lots of known/unknown unknowns etc between now and then, importantly in the government’s and the Coalition’s behaviour. But oppositions come under scrutiny in election campaigns. I reckon industrial relations will be an issue. Tony Abbott is difficult to vote for.
Statewise, I still reckon Labor will lose net seats in New South Wales and Queensland and gain net in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. What is due to the RTSP will be one of those matters for discussion.
There. This post now also in “anticipations” category.