Compared with 49.6 to 50.4 at the last election. In Courier Mail.
If we take it literally it shows a two party preferred swing to the opposition of around 2 to 2.5 percent. (This week’s national Newspoll showed about 1.5 to 2.) Assuming uniform (net) swing that would see two or three Queensland seats change hands. But real life is never uniform, and usually not net uniform.
Update: tables here. Note that Abbott and Rudd are neck and neck on preferred PM.
Didn’t the same pollster predict Anna Bligh would lose?
Does Clive Palmer own the paper?
This might of interest to fellow mumblers:
Taking the primary vote figures from Galaxy’s poll and aggregating and weighting by sample size those results with the most recent poll from Nielsen in mid May, shows us it’s almost a mirror image of the national situation. Where the ALP’s primary vote has bled to the Greens almost exclusively, with the Others mopping up the rest plus with a bit from the Coalition.
Election…ALP 42.9 L-NP 44.5 GR 5.6 OTH 7.0… TPP ALP 50.44 L-NP 49.56
Polls…….ALP 35.5 L-NP 43.8 GR 12.5 OTH 8.2… TPP ALP 48.81 L-NP 51.19
Change……..(-7.4)……….(-0.7)…..(+6.9)……(+1.2)……………(-1.63)……..(+1.63)
The preference flows to the ALP in QLD at the last election were 75% from the Greens and 48% from all the Others.
I’ve calculated the same here, however, you could make a case for a higher flow to the ALP from the Greens as the leakage since the last election is almost a 1 to 1 shift.
If you increased the flow to 80% (the 2007 national result) it would give you an ALP TPP of 49.4%, a swing away of about 1% since the last election.
A 1.63% swing away has the ALP losing no seats, as Longman, its lowest margin seat, sits on 1.9%, and obviously a 1% swing even less so. (ignoring the notional ALP seats following re-distributions)
You’d think from the headline that Labor was set to lose a dozen seats, but these raw numbers show this to be false. QLD is no graveyard for the ALP.
You can make all sorts of cases for this seat vs that seat, but on the pure numbers, this is what it shows.
(NB Those who don’t like seeing decimal points in poll analysis, ignore them, and look at the larger implication)
Have just been looking at Poll Bludger and see that there was a Face to face Morgan poll and that provides a better story for Labor so guess which one the media will run??
I am fed up with the media being so spineless as to quote the opposition without subjecting them to any kind of scrutiny- or not to the rigorous scutiny they subject labor to.
I do not remember the media bieng as hostile to the Howard govt!
even AWB and children overboard..
You must have a very short memory then, catalyst…
Lol Catalyst, hardly an objective source – chockers with a certain varietal of hacks.
A very short memory indeed… have you been living under a rock for the last 2 years catalyst?
Catalyst,
I thought all opinion polls for the Qld state election said roughly the same thing, about 50-50 TPP, which was pretty close to the actual result. Can you show us a Galaxy poll that was grossly out of step with everyone else in favouring the LNP?
Sorry folks maybe my memory is faulty but I seem to remember various ‘pundits’ predicting it was all,over for Labor and Anna Bligh- Will see if I can check.
I have not lived under a rock for any period of time, unlike those who post personal insults.
PollBludger is interesting Because it cites polls such as Morgan which others ‘conveniently’ forget and as William Bowe is based in WA a very Liberal focussed state I would not have thought it was a particualarly biased source.
Well, isn’t it more accurate to say Morgan favours Labor rather than everyone else favours the conservatives?
In terms of “conveniently forgetting”, I don’t think Morgan has ever lived down 2001 when they predicted the result would be 58-42 or something to Labor. I think they also predicted a much better result for Labor in 2004 (and maybe 2007?) than what they actually got.
I certainly wouldn’t call William Bowe himself biased, although since Pollbludger moved to Crikey the comments section has become a bit of a Labor love-in…..
Have been checking as best I can and my recollection seems to have some substance although of course the last poll published closest to the election by Galaxy was 51-49 to the LNP.
The election was called 6 months early and an article which gives some commentary is at http://www./http.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09 a research paper by Dr Mark Rodrigues which notes some commentators were speculating about a hung parliament and a substantial fall in labor’s primary vote.It appears the LNP did ok but people did not warm to Laurence Springborg
Anna told big porkie pies in the last week of the election, that was the game changer there. The real agenda for calling the early election was revealed in the budget 3 months later… She’s paid for it in the polls ever since
The Greens on 13 percent? In Queensland? I (and possibly they) would be happy with 10.