Read Pollbludger on the Westpoll that reckons 50 50 in Brand, nonsensical from the given primary votes (William reckons more like 52 to 48) and odd talk about boundaries. And of course the usual small sample.
Pattersons can be silly sometimes.
Current national polls have the government’s 2pp about 3 percent below the last election. All else being equal, we might expect individual seats to show something similar. Brand is showing about 4 percent in this poll.
Before the RSPT it was likely WA would be a relatively good performer for Rudd in 2010. (That is, swing-wise and compared with other states.) But an anti-Canberra campaign run by a new-ish, still popular Liberal premier is probably a goer.
People in WA and Tasmania tend more than elsewhere to see themselves as Tasmanian/West Australian first and Australian second. They can be made cranky and feel picked on by the mainland/eastern states.
Recall Tassie and the Franklin Dam in 1983, swinging big time to Malcolm Fraser when every other state went the other way.
But it’s only a few seats we’re talking about.
The W A premier was considering an increase in mining royalties – and he’s a LIberal- but now has decided to slug up water, gas and electricity instead. He also gave his chief of sTaff a 100K pay rise BUT we have one very Liberal focused daily newspaper and the TV stations are Uncritical as well.
Dunno about Brand, but if the tax is causing a backlash in WA then Hasluck would be a fair chance of falling, as would Swan which is Liberal held but made Labor by the redistribution. And it would make it tough for Labor to win any of their target seats in Perth such as Stirling, Canning and Cowan.
Probably not enough to seriously hurt Labor, although they may have been hoping for some gains in WA to balance potential losses elsewhere.
The increased majority talk would have to be nearing backflip point now. If Labor looks like losing seats in NSW, QLD and now WA, there’s not many marginals in VIC or SA to reverse that.
Gerald, if today’s polls are repeated on election day you’re right. But they probably won’t be.
Its 1984 all over again.
Labor won’t be winning anything new in WA for a while. Brand is less touch ‘n’ go than the West would have you believe, but you can forget any gains and that includes Swan.
Well I see that our state Liberal Government – the ones who propsed increased mining royalties have just launched a ( tax payer or mining company?) funded ad campaign against the RSPT.This smacks of huge double standards and hypocrisy.
Also why does no one in the media ask how much the mining companies have donated/will donate to the state and federal Liberal party??
Peter, if you think the WA Poll is unusual, what do you make of today’s Essential Report? ALP 39%, Coalition 41%, Greens 9% & Others 10%. Those primaries add up to 99%. Where is the other 1% which would no doubt influence the 2PP vote?
On WA royalties, in 2009-10 [this current financial year] they are estimated at $2.217 billion and for the next financial year [2010-11], they are to increase to $3.271 billion, approaching a third of what the FEDs hope to raise in net terms [$9 billion] from the super profits tax on mining. The increase of 47.5% is due to more minerals produced to meet greater export demand. Someone should have a go at Colin Barnett.
It’s fairly common to lose 1% in rounding.
Chill out guys KR will still be PM at Christmas 2010 as for Christmas 2011 we’ll see.
I have heard of rounding the 2 party preferred vote but not primary votes.
John (the latest): if they didn’t round, every poll would report primary votes to a tenth of a per cent (sampling 1000 voters means each respondent equals a raw 0.1%).
John (just before that): since Federal Labor is guaranteeing to offset royalties against the RSPT, isn’t there a moral hazard that the States will just ramp up their royalties to suck up the entirety of the federal tax each year? (Would take a bit of crafting, but nothing constitutional against it).
That would be a nice inversion of the usual vertical fiscal imbalance problem.
Graeme, I think the Commonwealth will place a cap on royalty rates [but not production levels]. If higher volumes feed through to higher royalties for the states, there is also a good chance they will feed through to the super-tax threshold. But I admit it does look clumsy.
On the other matter, I haven’t yet seen a published poll that doesn’t have the primaries adding to 100.
John Anderson: Consider a hypothetical poll where the primary votes were 30.2, 20.4 and 49.4. These add to 100, but when rounded they result in 30, 20 and 49, which add to only 99.
There is obviously no correct way to resolve that, without going to more decimal places in the quoted figures.
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