Me on the Rudd government and the upcoming election, in Inside Story, here.
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In 2010 I am Parliamentary Fellow at the Parliamentary Library, looking at use of new media in this election year.
I'm also a Visiting Fellow at the ANU.
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So your a bob or a wong each way Peter?
No Pat, I’m still an increased majority man.
with a “yes but” ?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the ALP loses the next one. Rudd was elected largely because the electorate felt it was time for a change and the ALP looked safe enough… but instead they’ve been frustrated to find that Rudd’s ALP is not really much change from Howard’s Coalition after all.
The big question is: is that frustration enough to swing them over to voting for the Mad Monk? And what will the mining towns do with influx of hundreds of thousands of unemployed 18-29 year olds, desperate to keep their dole payments, if the Coalition wins?
Let me see if I have got Pete from Perth right:t
The electorate wanted a change so they voted in the ALP.
Having discovered that the ALP was not as different from the coalition as they thought it was they will now vote the Coalition in on a policy platform that is Howard on steroids, ie more of what they voted against in 2007.
How does that work?
I had dinner with friends last week (people I hadn’t seen in a while), both pretty committed Labor voters, and both were very critical of Rudd’s performance and not caring much if he doesn’t get up again (but of course loathing the idea of an Abbott Government). I think Labor really has lost a lot of its base with the ditching of things like the ETS. If they get back in, it will be because Abbott runs a Latham like campaign (which is quite a possibility). Labor really does need to unleash people like Tanner so that they can sell their message. Their efforts with the Resources tax have been pathetic.
Doug wrote: “How does that work?”
Swinging voters are disengaged and, generally, not all that bright, have the attention spans of goldfish and a memory that doesn’t go much past 3-5 years ago. That’s why they’re still swinging after all these years, rather than settled after judging whose interests each party serves most.
So it’s quite possible for the swinging voters who were sick to death of Howard to be sick to death of Rudd for being Howard and leap blindly to the drover’s dog. (Remember, it wasn’t smart and/or educated people with long memories who won it for the Coalition in the Tampa election. It was the bone-headed ACA/TT-watching knuckle-draggers.)
I’m sure you’re right Peter. You have to go back to the thirties to find a one-term government and that was in the Great Depression.
What I find so frustrating is that the government actually has a good story to tell. They got us through the GFC with a (comparatively) modest deficit, the insulation scheme resulted in proportionally far fewer fires than previously (and why is that their problem anyway?), it makes sense for Australians to share in the super profits being made by the miners, the Opposition screwed them over badly with the emissions scheme…
And look at the Opposition! I mean seriously, Tony Abbot PM? and Barnaby Joyce Finance Minister (it could happen), Joe Hockey, Eric Abetz, Julie Bishop… This is not a deep talent pool.
Yet, the government are as close as any in 80 years to being a one-termer. Absolutely amazing.
This government is nowhere near as close as the Whitlam or the Howard government to being a one termer.
People who watch the polls and jump to conclusions have just as short memories as the ACA/TT watchers, methinks.
PB, that does not even warrant a retort:)
edward 0 has got it down!
And Graham says ‘I had dinner with friends last week ‘…this reminds me of the famous ‘I can’t understand how Nixon got elected – I don’t know anyone who voted for him’. It’s not a good basis for assessment, Graham.
wiggo said “PB, that does not even warrant a retort”
Wow wiggo. You must be a very important person. You’ve got an answer to every point made, but actually responding, actually sharing them, is not a worthy use of your valuable time.
How crushing.
We’ll soon know whether the comments made above are close to the mark or not because it’s game on. According the Antony Green’s election dates table, as of now, the federal election has to be held in the second half of the 2010. Conceivably, writs for a DD election could be issued tomorrow for Saturday 3 July. We’ll have to wait until 1 July for the calling of a normal election [ie House and half senate election]. As Antony notes, the earliest “normal’ election date is 7 August. Most pundits/bloggers are now saying it will be a “normal” election.
Peter thinks the ALP will increase its majority. That is, win more than the 83 seats won in 2007. This can occur even if there is a swing against Labor in 2010. Remember, Labor has a notional 88 seats following the redistributions. If Rudd and Co keep making decisions such as those on the ETS and govt advertising and keep alienating their core constituency, you just have to wonder.
PB,sorry my mistake buddy, from your response I gather your first comment wasnt tounge in cheek.
In that case, the good story to tell?? Most of us would be interested to hear it. As I’ve said here before, the selling things or telling the story better is not the governments problem, or perhaps it is. It is I guess because because they spend so much time focusing on how to spin the story that they dont focus on just delivery, without the scandal.
If there was such a great story to tell, it wouldnt be that damn hard to spin it to the public.