Lots of people seem to think Kevin Rudd will be gone some time during the next term, “even if” he wins the election. But if Labor increases its majority (still my best guess) then he’ll be King once more: he always knew what he was doing, has opposition leaders for breakfast and so on.
On the other hand, Julia Gillard is popular, and a force of nature, and once Lemmings define a task they don’t let go. Several journos (mainly in Melbourne) are waiting for Senator Carr’s green light to unleash Gillard-time.
But the last time Lemmings devoured a leader for Julia up they ended up settling for someone else – Kevin. Will that happen again? Swanny has been putting his name up, but (once again) don’t forget Stephen Smith, says I!
Previous Kevinism.
What is Malcolm thinking?
Does anyone know why he changed his mind? Any explanation must involve a Turnbull prime ministership, but partyroom is so poisonous it’s difficult to conjure any scenario.
The “John Howard did it!” schtick doesn’t work; it’s like saying “I heard about someone winning the lotto once, so if you buy a ticket there’s a good chance you’ll win”. Howard was very lucky things worked out as they did.
Often life’s self-actualised, massive achievers have an unrealistically high estimate of their ability to influence events. If Malcolm thinks he can topple Abbott after the election and then hold the opposition leadership for three years, that’s bizarre.
Perhaps he sees being treasurer under an Abbott prime ministership as a stepping stone. Out of the way, Joe.
And another thing … Eden-Monaro
The Liberals have preselected someone called David Gazard as candidate in Eden-Monaro, and lots of commentators reckon sitting member Mike Kelly has a fight on his hands with such a high quality opponent!
Kelly may have a fight on his hands, but Gazard will have little to do with it, because if any seat moves irrespective of candidate quality (and most of them largely do), it’s that one. As everyone says, it has hitherto been bellwether.
As you know, I reckon there’s a decent swing on to the Coalition on in NSW. But at a guess, Eden-Monaro won’t really be part of it.
New category: anticipations
Have created a new category, “anticipations” (”predictions” is too strong a word) to return to after the election. This post contains two.
I think the Gillard/Rudd dynamic is a little different, because from all accounts Rudd is not popular in the party room. Wasn’t it Barry Cassidy who said “Rudd will be the leader Labor had to lump to defeat Howard, but Gillard will be the light on the hill”?
That seems very different from Howard, who (apparently) commanded the party room and rendered challenges to his leadership impotent, even when the Libs were clearly going over the cliff in 2007.
I don’t remember; was there much angst and shenanigans in the party room during Howard’s first term?
Re Turnbull Peter, Wasn’t it you who said that opposition leaders just don’t last long these days? Point being that if Abbott loses the next election and resigns immediately and Hockey was to take over the leadership, what happens then? Joe hangs around for three years while the party loyally behaves and respects his mandate as duly elected leader of the liberal party until 2013?
If the answer is no, and I suspect it is, who becomes the alternative leader to Joe? Peter Dutton will likely be out of the parliament, A second turn for the leader who lost, Abbott, hardly seems likely. The other name is Bishop and if you think Bishop will contest the next election thats perfectly fine but
a) its not delusional for Turnbull to fancy his chances against Bishop if he expects Hockey to become a dead man walking and
b) What happens if Bishop goes too early like Turnbull himself did, couldn’t the leadership begin to look wide open by late 2012?
What was Malcolm Thinking? Here are a few thought balloons to consider:
1. Out of politics and what do I do? banking? Done that and it isn’t as fun as it was in the old days when there wasn’t much in the way of rules (and much more money to be made) The law? I won’t top the Spy Catcher trial and nobody is going to put me on the bench of the High Court any time soon. Start another business? Its a hard slog for the first few years and I’m not getting any younger.
2. Stay in politics and what might happen? Abbott stuffs up and they turn back to me for leadership, and I’ll probably be PM by 2013 or even earlier. If nothing happens, I can still bail out mid term if I’m sick of it. The punters get a bit annoyed but they’ll get over it. If Abbott wins and doesn’t give me the Treasurer or Foreign Minister gig, I cause him so much grief that he will have to send me off to London or Washington (or maybe even the UN Ambassadorship), not a bad consolation prize for Lucy and I.
The media/opposition meme is absurd and ahistorical. Since when did Labor dump a winning leader? If and only if Labor scraped home (eg narrow majority, on 49% TPP) AND Rudd’s popularity kept sinking, THEN Gillard would take over, but probably not until a year out from 2013 poll.
If Rudd loses, well, he’ll be gone within six months or so. Probably on some overseas posting. (Now hands up who thought Rudd approving jobs for Costello and Downer was just to make him appear above politics?)
Peter,
We all know about your anticipation for winning seat totals, but what about TPP? the way it stands now, Labor’s vote could stagnate or even decline (slightly) from 2007 but they could increase their number of seats
Correct, P.F., that’s why I prefer to talk about seats.
Lentern
Dutton is not a potential leader. He is a hopeless performer and slow on his feet. His performance on Q&A earlier this year was especially dire.
After Abbott/Hockey/Turnbull, well, Robb is popping up more and more – and if his health allowed he’d be their best “safe pair of hands” option. Although he’s hardly inspiring. I doubt Bishop can go for it in the short term after her poor performance as Shadow Treasurer.
Assuming the likes of McFarlane are not up for leadership, then its the next generation – in general order of aptitude and suitability the running list would be something like Smith, Hunt, Pyne, Morrison and Mirabella. Brough would be a potential if he got himself back into parliament.
Regarding Turnbull, probably staying in it for the same reason Rudd does. Not much else to do when your completly loaded I guess.
Julie Bishop?? What??
Mirabella!!!!!!!!!
The above should not be taken as any suggestion by me that I think Mirabella would be a good choice! But one sees her pop up more and more and it’s not an accident…
Rogan I don’t think Dutton would do any better than the elder Bishop in an election, I merely listed him because after Hockey he is the other name that gets thrown around probably because he’s young and in a senior portfolio.
My point was that there are some (and Peter I thought was one of them) who believed that lasting much longer than a year as leader of the opposition in this day an age is an achievement in itself unless the government is becoming completely unstuck (eg NSW Labor).
Given that the only other name frequently used in leadership discussions won’t have a seat in the parliament I suggest that by late 2012 Turnbull may again seem a desirable option to a party at the stage of an election cycle where it feels like a new leader. Andrew Robb is three years older than Turnbull and looks about eight years older. My personal view was that the only time he was ever a “contender” if you can call him one was this election.
Your list of names is fine in terms of ranking them but in my humble opinion it doesn’t contain anyone who is genuinely in the mix.
Any chance of Stewart MacArthur making a comeback?
Lentern – Turnbull *could* get there by late 2012, but if Abbott loses this year, Hockey proves himself unacceptable or falters due to the opposition leader syndrome (which I accept is valid at the Federal level), then what? Half the caucus dislike Turnbull. The right wingers would be looking at an alternative. And who are the alternatives? The people I named…
They aren’t in the mix for immediately post-2010 election. It’s idel speculation, but IMO one or some of them would have to be in the mix for the late 2012 scenario, because there is no one else.
I think its worth remembering Rogan that Turnbull leadership loss was by one vote in a very turbulent time. By 2012 the ETS (or whatever the greens broker) will have passed, heads will have cooled down a bit, we all know Turnbull is capable of being the best performer on the opposition frontbench if his heart is in it, the situation will be a lot more pacified in late 2012 than in early 2011. Granted some people in the party will be a bit annoyed by his tantrum throwing in the immediate aftermath.
I might be projecting my own views on the electorate too much here but I just imagine it would be a horrible look if the opposition elected any of your “new generation” kids over Turnbull or Bishop. It would for my money come across as spectacularly personal and childish spitefulness the type of which would hurt the liberals quite badly.
People might point out that the liberal part passed over Johnn Howard for a kid like Alexander Downer at one point but I suspect Turbull’s performance as leader of the oppositon while divisive was a lot more impressive, eg good communicator, across his policies, gravitas, palatable policies etc than Howard in 87.
Pat Hills:
Saw Stewart MacArthur on the Geelong train the other day (A country train – much more comfortable than a suburban train).
Tried to engage him in conversation – he didn’t even hear me. Looks very old.
Firemaker and Pat Hills,
Stewart ran the half marathon at the Great Ocean Road running festival last week-end, as I did. He did look very old when I saw him on Sunday morning, but he’s clearly fit if nott ready for a political comeback. He ran 2nd in his age group (70-74).
If one looks at polling figures one can only find three other instances where the ALP primary and TPP has fallen so far (10% or more) and so fast (6-months). These were in 1993, 2001 and 2005. In each of these there was a recovery… the fall averaged 12%, the recovery averaged 7%, leaving a 5% loss.
If the fall (currently at 12%) continues, the ALP will be wiped out; if the polls flat-line, the ALP will loose narrowly and if history repeats itself, the ALP will win handsomely just as Peter predicts.