Over the period of the Howard government, state ALP governments around the country won elections by huge, often record-setting (for Labor) amounts and the premiers had huge approval etc ratings. Close politics watchers in every state would assure you that this particular premier was a brilliant strategist and communicator - and the opposition was hopeless, of course – but to the casual observer this star quality was often difficult to discern.
For example, Bob Carr’s biographer Andrew West believed his guy was the best politician in the country; I had a different opinion.
(I reckon the only one out of the box was Peter Beattie.)
Anyway, last week’s Galaxy poll in South Australia (see Pollbludger) really shows the Mike Rann gloss is no more. (Newspoll wasn’t great for him either, but it was presumably taken over three months and asked “if an election was held today” rather than “who will you vote for on Saturday 20 March?”)
The headline 51 to 49 2pp is, as you know, estimated from the primary votes, and with such low total major party primaries (78%) there’s lots of leeway there. (Same applies to Newspoll.)
But Labor is in trouble, for sure, and it’s not really correct that the Libs will need 53% to govern in their own right as Dennis Atkins asserted on Insiders. That’s taking pendulums too literally.
All of December and early January’s predictions anticipations still stand (including the increased federal Labor majority, despite continuing prime ministerial dysfunction – most recent exhibit being the Kristina Keneally encounter).
Alright, my predictions for Tasmania, SA and my (rehashed) predictions for the federal election:
Tas: Liberal party will win more seats than Labor, will fall short of majority government (by 1 or 2 seats).
SA: Likewise, Liberal party will win more seats than Labor however how the minor parties and independents fall is a bit up in the air. There is a very good chance of a Redmond Liberal government with say the National retaining her portfolio and some deals with independents.
Federal: Liberal party will gain seats, but not many of them. Low single digit, 1-3 type thing.
The only certainty is that Premiers and Opposition Leaders give their best speeches when defeated.
For me, anything could happen in either state. But in SA, the LIBs have to win Newlands with a tarnished candiate in Trish Draper & the seat of Bright held by Cloe Fox who apparently is very popular. Polls [rubbery as they might be] show the LIBs may struggle in these two seats. It’s shaping up like the 1998 FED election where there was a sizable swing against Howard, but he held on to most of the marginals. Rann may do that. Moreover, the ALP could win back Mitchell from the Independent because, as I have read, the LIBs are likely to come in second and not Hanna. Who would have picked it 12 months ago that Rann would be so on the nose that his government might fall. Whatever happens, who is going to be the next ALP leader?
As for TAS, I reckon 10/10/5. To get two seats the LIBs & ALP have to muster 33% in each electorate. I think they will. But, as to who will govern, it might be an ACT governance scenario.
Peter,
How much do you think the federal ALP will increase their majority at the next federal election?
Certainly Victoria appears to be the ALP’s best state but the ALP vote is probably at the high point and presumably not many additional seats will be won there.
I’m not sure where their extra seats will come from. Will the recent redistributions in NSW and Qld deliver some of these seats?
According to Antony’s calculator, Labor have a notional 88 seats (up from 83 in 2007). I really don’t think Labor can better their 2007 result in Queensland. In fact, I think Labor will lose considerable ground in Queensland probably dragging the notional Labor seats back to the Liberals or going further. Labor will probably lose seats in NSW and I don’t think Labor will gain the notional West Australian seat of Swan.
In 2007, Queensland swung 7.5% to Labor. This was on the back of a poor performance in 2004 though. I think it would be easy for the Liberals to get a 1-2% swing in Queensland.
Thinking through these scenarios, it isn’t hard to work out plausible paths to Labor losing a small number of seats.
I’m going off pre-redistribution numbers, ie saying Labor to win more than 83, which is less ambitious.
Possible scenario: ALP to lose about 2 in Qld, about 1 (net) in NSW, pick up a few in Vic, SA and WA, which takes them to the high 80s low 90s.