Nielsen says 53 to 47
From primaries of 42 each. Here and here. And high initial approval for hospital plan.
Study reveals former ACTU leaders make best candidates
[Parody on]
Former ACTU leaders who become candidates in the House of Representatives attract very high levels of voter support, a new ANU study has found.
The research compared the primary votes received by former ACTU secretaries or presidents Greg Combet, Simon Crean, Martin Ferguson and Jennie George with those of other candidates and found that running a former ACTU leader adds an average 14 percentage points to the Labor vote in that electorate.
The research unit leader, Professor Frank Putthecartbeforethehorse, explained:
“At the 2007 election, these four people received from 53.1 to 65 percent of the primary vote in their seats. Their average vote was 57.6 percent, compared with 43.6 percent for Labor candidates overall. This is a statistically significant difference, to say the least.
“These numbers show that if the ALP were to preselect a former ACTU leader in every seat across the land, it would win 100 percent of elections.”
His colleague, Dr Henry Lovesquotingnumbersbutnotterriblynumerate, admitted that they were “surprised by the findings. We controlled for everything we could think of, including educational background, gender, length of time in parliament and hair colour. The results remained.”
They also “tested for the existence of preselection bias, running x, y and z coefficients and other fancy stuff over data that has little to do with anything, and found little or no evidence for this – certainly not enough to explain these numbers.”
Other recent findings from the same research unit include that: John Howard’s 24 November 2007 loss was caused by the the 3 December 2007 swearing in of the Rudd ministry; incumbency is worth 2.694 percent; every billion dollars in election promises adds 0.7 percent to a party’s support; and “conviction” and “John Howard” contain ten letters each but “Kevin Rudd” contains only nine.
[Parody off]
I loved the parody.
Peter, given recent polls and the general tightening reflected in them, do you think we are going to have a re-run of the 2007 election with the 2PP vote splitting about 53/47? Despite the media onslaught over the past fortnight, Labor’s vote has held up quite well, ranging from 52% to 54% and back to 53% & so on. Since November, there seems to be a settling down of support maybe because the Liberal leadership is settled & disgruntled Liberals are coming home.
Thanks to the almighty Possum and like last time, I have had a look at Nielsen’s demographic table. Support for Labor in the capital cities seems to be holding up very well [55% cf 56% last time] & well above the national 2PP vote. City seats such as Macarthur & even Roberston in NSW, Swan & Hasluck in WA & Dickson in QLD could be safe for Labor. While city LIB seats like Sturt, Bowman, McEwen & Hughes look vulnerable.
But when you look at the state breakdowns, you have to wonder how accurate the poll is. Are teh results compatible with the city/rural split? With the exception of VIC [where ALP support is very steady], the other state voting intentions have lurched dramatically from one extreme to the other in a period of a month, particularly the primary votes. For example, in SA/NT, Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 47% to 37% & its 2PP share from 57% to 48%. QLD and WA have shown similar, violent swings but in NSW, Labor’s support has grown over the past month. Do these dramatic swings reflect a sampling bias or what?
No JA, they reflect small sub-samples.
Finally confirmation that the hour of Sharran Burrow has arrived. Maybe she should be the candidate for Robertson?
Peter,
Is it time for the Mike Rann political obits?
Might as well have it ready, just in case …