What Dennis says; also better PM 55 to 30.
Blogroll
Electoral
Oz politics in general
More links and other things to come …
This is by no means a complete list of good sites. Its size is a function of my (in)competence. Will work it out eventually.
Contact me on elect followed by 'AT' sign followed by mumble.com.au.
In 2010 I am Parliamentary Fellow at the Parliamentary Library, looking at use of new media in this election year.
I'm also a Visiting Fellow at the ANU.
Am on twitter, mostly just observing, at twitter.com/mumbletwits
Blogroll
Electoral
Oz politics in general
Meta
V.disappointing result all round.
Disappointing for whom Pat?
A no change result from 2007. Boring.
So the Australian public are not allowing Abbot to be the arbiter of what they think.
And the media spin so anti the Rudd government did not have an effect.
When the Howard Government was ever ahead 52:48 on the two party preferred and 55:30 on better PM the government would be perceived to be trouncing the hopeless Labor opposition who couldn’t get traction etc
A vote of 52/48 at the election on balance points to the Coalition gaining seats both notionally and in absolute terms which is what I predicted the other week (Coalition gaining seats, possible range of 0 – 3?).
Alex,
Howard as often as not was behind and “battling”, so pulling 52-48 ahead was a strong performance from him. Rudd has been squishing the Liberals with ease for three years, so 52-48 is a relatively weak performance.
And it’s the first time since the election that the gap has been so narrow for so long, and reinforced by multiple polls by different polling agencies (except Morgan). The Coalition is travelling relatively well at the moment. Even if “relatively well” still isn’t that great, it’s better than anything we’ve seen since 2007.
Perception counts a lot.
Overall there has been very little poll movement in recent months, some shift to the coalition but given the run of negatives for the government with Copenhagen and the ‘botched’ insulation program it is probablly to be expected. Most of the alleged disatisfaction with the government seems to media-based. Fairfax seems to have alowed its anti-Labor campaign to spill over into Federal politics what with Paul Sheehan’s disgraceful ‘A-Z of Labor’s failure’ propaganda piece and using the divine Ms Devine to provide federal parlimentary comment. News Ltd is of course, neither newsworthy or limited by balance in its coverage.
Plus ca change
If we look at the last 6 federal elections and list the sitting government’s WORST figures in the last few months before a poll, we get this for 2-party-preferred and better PM
1993: 46.5/53.5; 36-42 [the government still won the election]
1996: 46/54; 37-44 [the government lost]
1998: 47/53; 31-39 [the government won]
2001: 47/53; 35-41 [the government won]
2004: 45/55; 43-42 [the government won]
2007 42/58; 37-50 [the government lost].
So Oppositions won just two of these elections and on each occasion the government’s polling was so bad that a loss seemed very probable. On all the other occasions bar 2004 when Latham never headed Howard as better PM, the government won after being badly behind at some point on both measures in the last few months.
Now contrast this with the present position – Rudd’s worst 2pp figure is 52-48 after a fortnight from hell. His lowest Better PM figure is 55-30. He’s never looked like being behind at any time.
And now tell me that the Australian [with others] is NOT running a ridiculous line.
The assumption from right wing commentators seems to be that the Government is powerless to reverse the trend in the polls. History (and logic) suggests otherwise, of course.
Well I think the commentariat have collectively got a bias for the conservative side of politics-and feel far more critical whenever Labor are in power.
Who has put Tony Abbott under scutiny? Who has taken the oppositinn to task for backing away from the ETS?
Who has said the opposition are the most anti- everything opposisition ever?
Not the fourth estate!
I am also begining wonder if Murdoch has sugnificant influnece over the ABC- as straight rpeorting seems out. Yesterday luchtime the ABC Midday report had a huge ‘plug’ for life insurance but did not mention NEwspoll at all.
Could that be beacuse it was favoiurable to the Rudd government?
And the joutnalists who had run such a negative campaign wer annoyed?
Chabbel 7 has run a banner over Peter Garret ‘insulation bungles’ for over two weeks, talk about a political agenda.
And these are the mob the $250 million rebate in license fees was supposed to have ‘bought’
Catalyst, the mob bores easily.
It seesm to me they are a collecive who think and act as one.