Nicholson in the Oz. Click for larger.
Michelle Grattan in the Age, tables (regular questions only) here. Table and questions below.
Tony Abbott has a similar boost Malcolm Turnbull received, but these sorts of 2pp voting intention numbers are still only about Simon Crean (2001-3) on a very bad week.
However, good news for the opposition in 45 percent preferring his climate change solution to the government’s on 39. Then again, 43 percent like Kevin Rudd’s climate approach more broadly versus 30 percent for Mr Abbott’s.
Nielsen’s John Stirton reckons, paraphrased by Michelle, that ”the apparent contradiction probably reflected voters’ low level of understanding.” It might also reflect voters’ opinion that Tony doesn’t really believe in climate change. And one question is about the government and opposition, while the other uses leaders’ names.
See drop in support for ETS (although still decent majority in favour; also note the changing wording) in this table:
ACNielsen support for ETS
Respondents were then told: “Both the Government and the Opposition have climate change policies that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent by 2020. The Government’s policy is to introduce an Emissions Trading Scheme. The Opposition’s policy is to set up a fund that would be used to purchase initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” Asked which policy they preferred, 39% preferred an Emissions Trading Scheme and 45% preferred an Emissions Reduction Fund.
I think this thing about Abbott’s climate change policy is popular is a furphy. Its like the weight loss program spruker who says, “there is no pain with our program, just pay the money and you can eat and drink anything you want and you will still loose weight”. Most people realise that we have to do something but they are momentarily distracted by Abbott who is offering the pain free option – it won’t take them long to realise that this just won’t work.
Given that, there is no doubt that Abbott is a very clever pollie, and he has used all his political skills to get himself into the game, and it has been successful. His virginity line was a classic constituency building trick – after the rest of us have forgotten it, those that he was targeting will have it locked into their mind – watch for more of these thought bubbles.
Another interesting poll. Just like last week’s Newspoll, the Coalition gain 3% on primaries but none of it comes from Labor which holds steady on primary votes. The difference is last week’s shift was all from ‘Others’; this week’s is all from ‘Greens’.
I usually look at the headlines and published tables for the polls. Naively, I have not drilled down to read the detail. But Possum provided a link to the Nielsen demographic table and I found it fascinating. It is fair to say that, in the macro sense, there has been a tightening in the polls against Labor since November. The Age’s Tony Wright noted the poor NSW figures for Labor and this seems to be where the tightening has occurred. A 3.7% swing resulting in a 50/50 split. Nothing like that in the other states though.
In VIC, the TPP share for Labor is 57%, QLD 56%, SA/NT 57% & very surprisingly, in WA the figure is 52%, a swing to Labor of 6%. I said in a comment on Antony Green’s blog that NSW is the key to whether there is a Rudd slide or the losses in NSW are fully offset by gains elsewhere. Peter Brent says the coalition will be “clobbered” . Maybe but I’m more inclinded to the approach taken by Antony Green in his recent blog on the magnitude of poll results. I’ll stick to 53.5% to 54%. But a Labor win in any case.
53.5 to 54 is a realistic ballpark: that would be a clobbering (in my book).
If Labor holds onto its 2007 results of 52.7% [and 88 seats], that’s probably a clobbering as well. A swing to Labor of between 0.8 & 1.3% yields a modest 5 to 9 seats according to Malcolm’s pendulum. It doesn’t sound much but, on top of 88 seats, it would be a clobbering as you suggest. Once again in NSW, a swing to the coalition of 2.3% would yield 6 seats. Maybe NSW will determine the difference between a clobbering and a massacre.
Bet federal Labor would like there be a ‘recall’ option in NSW…
It’s Goss’s baseball bats thesis, but in reverse.
If these state disparities are true, and if the NSW results aren’t just a blip on the MoE or static in the system: what will become of the idea that swinging voters don’t just distinguish State and Federal elections, but even end up hedging their bets?