Recently I pontificated on upcoming election results, suggesting that South Australia might vote Liberal but probably wouldn’t, and Victoria could go either way but was ever so slightly likely to change government. Then I reformulated: Labor to probably lose in one of those states, with a very small chance of both.
Centrebet odds over next 14 months
Here are current Centrebet odds for elections over the next 14 months.
The last of these, NSW in 2011, is as close to a sure thing as you can get in politics. It yields almost the same odds (with parties swapped) as South Australia, which is quite wacky.
Next most likely is the federal result, a very likely Labor win (made more likely by the elevation of Tony Abbott and, again, Barnaby Joyce).
The Victorian result has almost identical odds to the federal one, again out wack in my view. In Tassie my slight anticipation remains: a probable Liberal victory (in alliance with Greens).
Anyway, I’ve put a little dough on South Australia ($3X) and Victoria ($5X). In line with anticipations.
(See all bets posts.)
Don’t forget the effect of time to the polls. Even assuming Libs are a sure thing in NSW, you wouldn’t get takers for less than $1.10 because interest over 14 months would get you close to 10% return ‘risk free’ already.
Agree on SA and VIC though. Very tempting to put money on the Libs in both, even if only to lay off closer to the elections.
Affirmative on the laying off EconoMan. (As I thankfully did in the last week of Queensland campaign last year.)
Can’t agree with your assessment of Victoria. Living in what would need to be a marginal seat, I’m not sensing any particular level of discomfort with the government. Sure, people are frustrated about certain issues, but there doesn’t seem to be a mood for change. We seem to be where New South Wales was 4 years ago, at least in terms of the electoral cycle.
That, and Baillieu is not really taken seriously by most as an alternative. The Libs need to make changes if they’re to have any chance.
Agree with you about Vic, Daniel. Talent is thin on the ground in state politics generally and while there is probably only 5 or 6 people in the Brumby Government who could actually hit the ball, I think there is even less in the Opposition. They just haven’t managed to register with the voters, despite issues like transport, health and the perception of a crime wave in the city.
And don’t underestimate John Brumby’s popularist tool. He is using it at the moment with the Indian issue.
Much agreed… I see more dissatisfaction with rudd here in Victoria than with brumby… I would think that short of a major scandal he’d be the least likely leader in the country to fall… I guess time will tell
[...] offloaded on the February $4.75 on Libs ($7X placed) with $1.38 wager on Labor (20X placed). So $27X placed in [...]