The year 2010 will produce a bumper election crop. Here are my, if not predictions, then anticipations of most likely outcomes.*
- South Australia, March 2010: A big swing to the Liberals, a probable Labor win, but thanks to that state’s unique redistribution rules, perhaps a Liberal victory with a minority of the vote (as Labor managed in 2002).
- Tasmania, March 2010: rather favour a Liberal win, but don’t ask me how seat-wise.
- Federal, Aug-Nov(?) 2010: increased majority for ALP government.
- Victoria, November 2010: recent opinion polls make half of this post from late last year look a bit mad. However, I’m still quite certain Mr Baillieu will lose the leadership (he survived 2009, but Michael Kroger’s on the warpath) and that in 2010 opinion polls will move strongly towards the opposition.
And, as wacky as it sounds today, I still tip a Coalition win.
(New South Wales, March 2011: you know the answer … )
(You might also like to read Antony Green and parliamentary library on election dates.)
*As always, I promise not to change the content of this post but reserve the right to change my mind.
Do you favour a change in NSW opposition leader?
On balance, yes. 15 months is a jolly long time.
If that is the case, do you feel it is possible that the NSW Coalition may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, like they did with Debnan?
Nosir.
I think SA 2010 might be like Vic 2006 or NSW 2007; a reasonable on-paper swing that returns the base vote but doesn’t translate into a big gain of seats.
Vic 2010 might be similar.
Why do you figure a Liberal win in Victoria 2010, Peter? They’re a good government. Competent. Likeable. The NSW government was none of the above and yet managed a new term in 2007. That was in sunnier economic climes, admittedly, but surely the global recession is not so bad as to offset what weighed against NSW Labor?
And I’ve emailed you about Tasmania before (under a different name), and my point remains the same: it’s possible, indeed at this point probably the most likely outcome, that the Libs win more seats than Labor. But it just seems incredibly unlikely, in terms of sheer maths, that they win a MAJORITY government. But this is where I was wrong before, and why you’re probably right now: I just don’t think the Greens, if it came down to it, would back Labor over Liberal, especially if the Liberals had more seats, in a minority government. The last term or so has been so toxic in terms of environmental issues that the Tas Greens would seriously jeopardise their own future, which right now looks brighter than the prospects of any third party in Australian history, if they helped keep Bartlett in power, going back on years and years of overheated rhetoric.
If you are wrong, you know who will rub it in. Gerard will line you up & shoot you down!!
The Liberal Party have less chance of winning the Victorian election than the federal one next year.
The others are pretty much on the money.
I’m rather iffy about Victoria myself.
But my reasoning: all else being equal, an 11 and a bit year old government should have some difficulty and every other state/territory election since Howard’s demise has seen a big swing to opposition(or at least away from Labor)
If Brumby cops the same swing as Henderson (NT) he’s gone, if the same as Bligh (Qld) he loses the 2pp vote, if the same as Carpenter (WA) he just wins it, which is no guarantee of winning the most seats.
Thanks for another year of looking at the forest for us while we stumble around the trees.
Victoria – no way is Brumby in trouble. People may be unexcited by state Labor but the sheer lack of profile of the Libs will stop then gaining any traction this time round.
My prediction: The Libs might get up in NSW in 2011.
The Victorian Liberals have been absolutely attrocious. One of the worst Oppositions in history, in my opinion. That Ballieu appears to be one of the safest leaders in the country (despite his, by all accounts, abysmal performance) is a testament to complete debacle the party finds itself in.
Is there any precedent for poll numbers turning around to such an extent in less than one years time? A Liberal win would pretty much mean opinion polls are worthless and have zero predictive value.
P.F.: Queensland Newspolls up to 12 months before 2009 election (all in Labor’s favour):
July-Sep 2007 59-41
Oct-Dec 2007 59-41
Jan-Mar 2008 60-40
Election in March 2009: 51-49
Similar shifts over next 11 months would take Brumby well below 50%
Quite true, Peter. However, Bligh still won.
I just find it too difficult to envision Ballieu ever winning an election. A new leader may, just may, do the trick, but the Victorian Liberals seem paraylised and completely berefit of alternatives.
SA – might be quirky. Channel Seven will be hoping for an ALP victory to reduce the size of their settlement with Rann.
Tassie – Minority Liberal government which loses confidence at some stage because the Greens will attempt to throw around weight they won’t have after the forced election (because of backlash against unstable governments).
Victoria – The Victorian Liberals have not much to go on other than a struggling ticketing system for public transport which many people don’t take. Not having OPV helps too. No clear and/or potential challenge to the oppostion leader. What might be interesting is the election is likely to be conducted in the wake of the federal election and any fall out from that…..
And that brings me to the federal election; I think a lot of stupid things will be said by Abbott, the polls will suggest that the election will be a massarce because the result is not as bad as polls suggest, Abbott will come out looking succesful somehow despite lossing many seats.
NSW – A Corruption inquiry will find dodgy deals somewhere…. everyone yawns.
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