Denison was the first Tasmanian seat to return to Labor after the Whitlam experience. It did this in 1987, when Kerr defeated Michael ‘mouth from the south’ Hodgeman.

Today all five seats in the state are Labor-held.

Graph below shows Labor two party preferred votes for all of them since 1974. They are adjusted back from the 2007 results for redistributions, so for example Labor didn’t really win Lyons in 1980 (and also the seat was then called Wilmot). Click for better quality.

Note the big swings against Labor in 1975 and 1983. The state wasn’t alone the first time, but the second time it was.

The Green line is Denison, and you would expect the urban seat to be most pro-Labor, but whether it’s due to Kerr, demographic changes or something else, it has hit the stratosphere over the years. 

Maybe we have to wait for Duncan’s retirement to find out how much is his personal vote.