In the Oz a Mining industry sponsered newspoll finds the RTSP rather unpopular in marginal Queensland and Western Australia, but no voting intentions.

Tables here.

Wednesday morning update: In answer to a couple of questions in comments. If someone said to me: “here is a nice new car, the keys will be yours if you correctly nominate, now, the number of seats Labor will win at the next federal election,” I would answer …. “86″.

If this does turn out to be in the ballpark, then of course current opinion poll numbers won’t be repeated on polling day. They will change.

There will be lots of known/unknown unknowns etc between now and then, importantly in the government’s and the Coalition’s behaviour. But oppositions come under scrutiny in election campaigns. I reckon industrial relations will be an issue. Tony Abbott is difficult to vote for.

Statewise, I still reckon Labor will lose net seats in New South Wales and Queensland and gain net in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. What is due to the RTSP will be one of those matters for discussion.

There. This post now also in “anticipations” category.

When it does, it is very very likely that by 7:15pm AEST on election Saturday we will know who has won. People like to talk about hung parliaments! and we won’t know the result for days! but the chances of these will be miniscule, as they are at any Australian federal poll.

If Rudd wins with an increased majority (the most likely outcome) one overarching explanation will be that standard after any government’s re-election: that the opposition moved too far from the centre.

Abbott should not have carried on so much about asylum seekers and the mining tax, they’ll say. More to the point is the Coalition’s casual attitude to obvious electorate worries about a ”return to Workchoices”. (Doesn’t Andrew Robb remember 1993 versus 1996?)

The mining bosses will look silly too, but life there goes on.

Sharpen the knife, Julia

On the Labor side, Kevin Rudd will again be declared a brilliant politician: he may be content-free, but there’s no-one better when their back is to the wall etc. Julia Gillard talk will somewhat subside. For a while.

But if I were Julia I would grab the job sooner rather than later. Timing is everything and if she waits too long she’ll find she’s Peter Costello or, much more depressingly, Gordon Brown.

Upcoming years do not look like long-term government ones.

Off with his head early in the next term, Julia.

Meanwhile

On the other side, Abbott will probably get the chop within, say, six months and the moderates (those left in parliament) will be emboldened. Joe Hockey must be favoured first-off Liberal leader, but opposition leaders don’t last long these days and he is unlikely to last until the 2013 election.  So someone rightwing again for the ‘13 poll?  

Dutts! (If he’s still there.)

Where Malcolm Turnbull believes he fits into all this is something only he can answer.

Pattersons can be silly sometimes.

Current national polls have the government’s 2pp about 3 percent below the last election. All else being equal, we might expect individual seats to show something similar. Brand is showing about 4 percent in this poll.

Before the RSPT it was likely WA would be a relatively good performer for Rudd in 2010. (That is, swing-wise and compared with other states.) But an anti-Canberra campaign run by a new-ish, still popular Liberal premier is probably a goer.

People in WA and Tasmania tend more than elsewhere to see themselves as Tasmanian/West Australian first and Australian second. They can be made cranky and feel picked on by the mainland/eastern states.

Recall Tassie and the Franklin Dam in 1983, swinging big time to Malcolm Fraser when every other state went the other way.

But it’s only a few seats we’re talking about.

As he also notes, Greens will very likely hold the balance of power all by themselves, ie Labor + Greens = majority, after this year’s election. (Antony Green actually did the sums way back in July last year.)

In HoR, Greens got 5.0 percent in 2001, 7.2 in 2004 and 7.8 in 2007.

Mr Hartcher kind of anticipates a double digit Green vote this time, but this seems ambitious - at least in the lower house. Labor’s primary vote will probably increase [ie from current polling numbers], at the expense of the Greens.

I reckon between 9 and 9.5 is a reasonable ballpark expectation for the Green (HoR) vote.

On the other hand, Julia Gillard is popular, and a force of nature, and once Lemmings define a task they don’t let go. Several journos (mainly in Melbourne) are waiting for Senator Carr’s green light to unleash Gillard-time.

But the last time Lemmings devoured a leader for Julia up they ended up settling for someone else  – Kevin. Will that happen again? Swanny has been putting his name up, but (once again) don’t forget Stephen Smith, says I!

Previous Kevinism.

What is Malcolm thinking?

Does anyone know why he changed his mind? Any explanation must involve a Turnbull prime ministership, but partyroom is so poisonous it’s difficult to conjure any scenario.  

The “John Howard did it!” schtick doesn’t work; it’s like saying “I heard about someone winning the lotto once, so if you buy a ticket there’s a good chance you’ll win”. Howard was very lucky things worked out as they did.

Often life’s self-actualised, massive achievers  have an unrealistically high estimate of their ability to influence events. If Malcolm thinks he can topple Abbott after the election and then hold the opposition leadership for three years, that’s bizarre.

Perhaps he sees being treasurer under an Abbott prime ministership as a stepping stone. Out of the way, Joe.

And another thing … Eden-Monaro

The Liberals have preselected someone called David Gazard as candidate in Eden-Monaro, and lots of commentators reckon sitting member Mike Kelly has a fight on his hands with such a high quality opponent!

Kelly may have a fight on his hands, but Gazard will have little to do with it, because if any seat moves irrespective of candidate quality (and most of them largely do), it’s that one. As everyone says, it has hitherto been bellwether.

As you know, I reckon there’s a decent swing on to the Coalition on in NSW. But at a guess, Eden-Monaro won’t really be part of it.

New category: anticipations

Have created a new category, “anticipations” (”predictions” is too strong a word) to return to after the election. This post contains two.