“A total of 4768 “plane people” – more than 96 per cent of applicants for refugee status – arrived by aircraft in 2008 on legitimate tourist, business and other visas compared with 161 who arrived by boat during the same period, the Sunday Telegraph reports”. 25/10/2009

The whole issue around the illegal immigrants is pre-election stunt from Julia Gillard. I am worried about the political power of big multinational companies, tens of billions of dollars taken from Australian people every year and how this influences our daily lives and the prosperity of Australia in general.
We do not need a Prime Minster who can not stand up for the Australian interests. Neither Tony Abbott nor Julia Gillard is able to resist the pressure from the big multinational companies.
I am not going to vote for Julia or Tony “the budgie smuggler”. I was a Labor voter in the past however my vote this time will go to Greens and Bob Brown as long as he is not giving his preferences to Labor Party.

Interesting comments. At the peak of the One Nation era a good proportion of the Hanson vote came off the Coalition

ALP COAL ON ALP-TPP
ELECT96 39.2% 47.0% 46.8%
JUL98 42.2% 32.5% 14.2% 55.4%
change +3% -14.5% +14.2% +8.6%

The ALP primaries were UP at this time (from “Other”?). But of the people seemingly won over to Hanson from the Coalition, about 43% went back in preferences to the ALP instead. This was a very consistent flow, right throughout the Hanson era, not only in polls, but also in State and Federal elections.

As Pauline would say…. “Please explain”

I have to concede that, if what is written on the Insiders page referred to by Sam, is the full transcript of the interview with Bob Brown, then I’m wrong to claim he said there would be a double sided how to vote card. I must have interpreted his comment’s to mean just that, but clearly I’ve misrepresented what Brown actually said.

Having eaten humble pie, my main point about the split in Green preferences is still valid; that Labor cannot expect to receive the same level of support from the Greens in the next election. Brown is certainly indicating that: “each seat determines where it wants its preference to go and lets our national preference negotiators know that”, and “my advice to voters is vote Green but then put the preference, ultimately for one of the big parties or an independent, in the order of your own choice”.

Perhaps the party has always held this view . . I’m no expert in Green political machinations . . but it does sound an alarm for those in Labor who have hitherto counted on a big chunk of Green preferences.

Living here in The West, the Adele Carles saga is ridiculous. She won the seat as a member of the Greens, and now sits as an independent. I’m sure the Greens in Fremantle are thrilled to bits about it. Their first lower house rep., and she lasts barely a year before defecting. For me, there ought to be a by-election when a sitting member changes allegiances mid-term. Even if the change is to being an Independent. Those who voted Green in Fremantle must feel cheated.

Nielsen’s self-reported Green preferences are based on 10-15% of a survey of about 1000 electors. So we are relying on a sample size of just 100-150 Green supporters as if that mirrored the total Green support base.

Wouldn’t that lead to a MoE in the order of +/- 8%? If so, the historical stickiness of Green preferences at around 70 odd percent Labor would naturally, in the Nielsen figures, appear to bounce anywhere between low 60s to 80% in favour of Labor. Exactly the results Possum quotes.

Happy to be corrected: Possum is Dr Probability & Statistics (whereas I was almost sacked as a statistical maths tutor at uni).

I admit to being a little stunned when I heard it. Hopefully, to save me from accusations of misrepresentation, someone else can also recall Brown’s exact words. The importance of it is such that I remain convinced these were his words . . You don’t easily forget something as significant as that.

But then again, I could be mistaken. Just maybe it was the visual cues . . Brown flipping his hands to indicate two sides to the voting card rather than direct words.

I’ll check the link you’ve provide Sam.

BARRIE CASSIDY: What approach are you taking with preferences this time around? Will you be doing deals seat by seat, marginal seat by marginal seat?

BOB BROWN: Well, the party of course, by law you have to have a preference arrangement or deal if you like in the Senate because you have to lodge it with the Electoral Office. And that leads to parlaying about the House of Representative seats.

We like the other parties approach nationally, but each seat determines where it wants its preference to go and lets our national preference negotiators know that.

But I’ve got a bit of break-out advice here Barrie and that is people who don’t know this should know that they can put their preferences where they want to.

And my advice to voters is vote Green but then put the preference, ultimately for one of the big parties or an independent, in the order of your own choice. You don’t and shouldn’t be dictated to by any party, Greens included.

I think it’s much better if people are aware that they can put their preferences where they want to. That’s better democracy.

Source: http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2010/s2919430.htm

Do you see any parallels with the Federal seat of Melbourne ?

I’ve just read the article from John Black the Labor Senator . . about the ‘wealth factor’ among Greens voters. i.e. The Greens now being the Party of choice for disaffected (but not disillusioned) Liberal voters. If Black is right, then the puzzle I set out previously . . how it seems a bigger chunk of the increase in Green Vote has come from Coalition rather than from Labor ranks . . becomes easier to comprehend. If 2.8% of the 5% increase since Feb. is a shift from Coalition to Green, then it seems likely that first preferences of this group of Greens will flow back to the Coalition.

Perhaps Bob Brown has taken Black’s views seriously, or in fact knows this ‘wealth’ factor well enough himself to propose a ‘double sided’ how to vote card come election time. He would love to keep the new breed of Green on side. What better way than to ‘allow’ them to preference The Coalition.