Comments on: Future of Kevinism?

By: Geoff Lambert

Geoff Lambert — Sat, 22 May 2010 04:35:47 +0000

If one looks at polling figures one can only find three other instances where the ALP primary and TPP has fallen so far (10% or more) and so fast (6-months). These were in 1993, 2001 and 2005. In each of these there was a recovery… the fall averaged 12%, the recovery averaged 7%, leaving a 5% loss.

If the fall (currently at 12%) continues, the ALP will be wiped out; if the polls flat-line, the ALP will loose narrowly and if history repeats itself, the ALP will win handsomely just as Peter predicts.

By: PeterJF

PeterJF — Fri, 21 May 2010 05:00:06 +0000

Firemaker and Pat Hills,
Stewart ran the half marathon at the Great Ocean Road running festival last week-end, as I did. He did look very old when I saw him on Sunday morning, but he’s clearly fit if nott ready for a political comeback. He ran 2nd in his age group (70-74).

By: Firemaker

Firemaker — Fri, 21 May 2010 00:10:04 +0000

Pat Hills:
Saw Stewart MacArthur on the Geelong train the other day (A country train – much more comfortable than a suburban train).

Tried to engage him in conversation – he didn’t even hear me. Looks very old.

By: Lentern

Lentern — Thu, 20 May 2010 06:29:52 +0000

I think its worth remembering Rogan that Turnbull leadership loss was by one vote in a very turbulent time. By 2012 the ETS (or whatever the greens broker) will have passed, heads will have cooled down a bit, we all know Turnbull is capable of being the best performer on the opposition frontbench if his heart is in it, the situation will be a lot more pacified in late 2012 than in early 2011. Granted some people in the party will be a bit annoyed by his tantrum throwing in the immediate aftermath.

I might be projecting my own views on the electorate too much here but I just imagine it would be a horrible look if the opposition elected any of your “new generation” kids over Turnbull or Bishop. It would for my money come across as spectacularly personal and childish spitefulness the type of which would hurt the liberals quite badly.

People might point out that the liberal part passed over Johnn Howard for a kid like Alexander Downer at one point but I suspect Turbull’s performance as leader of the oppositon while divisive was a lot more impressive, eg good communicator, across his policies, gravitas, palatable policies etc than Howard in 87.

By: rogan

rogan — Thu, 20 May 2010 05:11:21 +0000

Lentern – Turnbull *could* get there by late 2012, but if Abbott loses this year, Hockey proves himself unacceptable or falters due to the opposition leader syndrome (which I accept is valid at the Federal level), then what? Half the caucus dislike Turnbull. The right wingers would be looking at an alternative. And who are the alternatives? The people I named…

They aren’t in the mix for immediately post-2010 election. It’s idel speculation, but IMO one or some of them would have to be in the mix for the late 2012 scenario, because there is no one else.

By: Pat Hills

Pat Hills — Thu, 20 May 2010 03:49:42 +0000

Any chance of Stewart MacArthur making a comeback?

By: Lentern

Lentern — Thu, 20 May 2010 01:55:19 +0000

Rogan I don’t think Dutton would do any better than the elder Bishop in an election, I merely listed him because after Hockey he is the other name that gets thrown around probably because he’s young and in a senior portfolio.

My point was that there are some (and Peter I thought was one of them) who believed that lasting much longer than a year as leader of the opposition in this day an age is an achievement in itself unless the government is becoming completely unstuck (eg NSW Labor).

Given that the only other name frequently used in leadership discussions won’t have a seat in the parliament I suggest that by late 2012 Turnbull may again seem a desirable option to a party at the stage of an election cycle where it feels like a new leader. Andrew Robb is three years older than Turnbull and looks about eight years older. My personal view was that the only time he was ever a “contender” if you can call him one was this election.

Your list of names is fine in terms of ranking them but in my humble opinion it doesn’t contain anyone who is genuinely in the mix.

By: rogan

rogan — Thu, 20 May 2010 01:15:24 +0000

The above should not be taken as any suggestion by me that I think Mirabella would be a good choice! But one sees her pop up more and more and it’s not an accident…

By: barney

barney — Thu, 20 May 2010 00:35:48 +0000

Mirabella!!!!!!!!!

By: Phil

Phil — Wed, 19 May 2010 10:20:44 +0000

Julie Bishop?? What??