Is it time for the Mike Rann political obits?

Thanks to the almighty Possum and like last time, I have had a look at Nielsen’s demographic table. Support for Labor in the capital cities seems to be holding up very well [55% cf 56% last time] & well above the national 2PP vote. City seats such as Macarthur & even Roberston in NSW, Swan & Hasluck in WA & Dickson in QLD could be safe for Labor. While city LIB seats like Sturt, Bowman, McEwen & Hughes look vulnerable.

But when you look at the state breakdowns, you have to wonder how accurate the poll is. Are teh results compatible with the city/rural split? With the exception of VIC [where ALP support is very steady], the other state voting intentions have lurched dramatically from one extreme to the other in a period of a month, particularly the primary votes. For example, in SA/NT, Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 47% to 37% & its 2PP share from 57% to 48%. QLD and WA have shown similar, violent swings but in NSW, Labor’s support has grown over the past month. Do these dramatic swings reflect a sampling bias or what?