Comments on: Antony loves Tassie

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 13:34:47 +0000

I think it is a bit premature to (more or less) write off Labor’s chances of a plurality of either votes or seats in Tassie – after all the only polls we have had here are EMRS polls which are not very reliable or frequent. The swing should be big here but the Libs need almost a 9% swing to get the most votes and that would be about the 3rd biggest swing in Tas history. It still could fall short of that although there’s quite a few reasons to project it into low double digits a la 1996 state election in reverse.

Centrebet still have Labor favourites to be “the party which provides the next Premier” (bets settled at swearing in) but the odds have closed a lot, now at 1.77 vs 2.00. I’ll be interested to see where the odds end up as the betting market was extremely slow to smell the coffee in 2006.

By: edward o

edward o — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 09:09:23 +0000

The corollary for SA 2010 could end up being Qld 2006 not 2008 – slight swing against yielding almost nothing in terms of net seats. Tasmania will definitely be more fun in any case. Some good local members can probably pick up votes on their new boundaries, esp transferees unaccustomed to having Labor representation before.

By: Doug

Doug — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 03:03:11 +0000

It couldn’t be the Tasmanian wine could it?

By: Peter Brent

Peter Brent — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 23:53:08 +0000

Anyone who is tired of Hobart is tired of life.

By: Peter Tucker

Peter Tucker — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 23:21:08 +0000

Anyone faced with a choice between Tassie and South Aussie, the answer is a no-brainer.

I’m not biased, of course.