Comments on: Elections in 2010: the results?

By: Weekend elections stuff | Mumble

Weekend elections stuff | Mumble — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 19:52:29 +0000

[...] are kind of developing as anticipated here and early here. My feeling that John Brumby is gone in November is firming (don’t you worry [...]

By: On Labor state premiers | Mumble

On Labor state premiers | Mumble — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 23:07:43 +0000

[...] of December and early January’s predictions anticipations still stand (including the increased federal [...]

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 04:51:19 +0000

SA – might be quirky. Channel Seven will be hoping for an ALP victory to reduce the size of their settlement with Rann.

Tassie – Minority Liberal government which loses confidence at some stage because the Greens will attempt to throw around weight they won’t have after the forced election (because of backlash against unstable governments).

Victoria – The Victorian Liberals have not much to go on other than a struggling ticketing system for public transport which many people don’t take. Not having OPV helps too. No clear and/or potential challenge to the oppostion leader. What might be interesting is the election is likely to be conducted in the wake of the federal election and any fall out from that…..

And that brings me to the federal election; I think a lot of stupid things will be said by Abbott, the polls will suggest that the election will be a massarce because the result is not as bad as polls suggest, Abbott will come out looking succesful somehow despite lossing many seats.

NSW – A Corruption inquiry will find dodgy deals somewhere…. everyone yawns.

By: P.F

P.F — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:54:03 +0000

Quite true, Peter. However, Bligh still won.
I just find it too difficult to envision Ballieu ever winning an election. A new leader may, just may, do the trick, but the Victorian Liberals seem paraylised and completely berefit of alternatives.

By: Peter Brent

Peter Brent — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:09:23 +0000

P.F.: Queensland Newspolls up to 12 months before 2009 election (all in Labor’s favour):

July-Sep 2007 59-41
Oct-Dec 2007 59-41
Jan-Mar 2008 60-40

Election in March 2009: 51-49

Similar shifts over next 11 months would take Brumby well below 50%

By: P.F

P.F — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:20:10 +0000

The Victorian Liberals have been absolutely attrocious. One of the worst Oppositions in history, in my opinion. That Ballieu appears to be one of the safest leaders in the country (despite his, by all accounts, abysmal performance) is a testament to complete debacle the party finds itself in.

Is there any precedent for poll numbers turning around to such an extent in less than one years time? A Liberal win would pretty much mean opinion polls are worthless and have zero predictive value.

By: Lenny Pascoe

Lenny Pascoe — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:10:58 +0000

My prediction: The Libs might get up in NSW in 2011.

By: Persse

Persse — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:33:59 +0000

Thanks for another year of looking at the forest for us while we stumble around the trees.
Victoria – no way is Brumby in trouble. People may be unexcited by state Labor but the sheer lack of profile of the Libs will stop then gaining any traction this time round.

By: Peter

Peter — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:19:48 +0000

I’m rather iffy about Victoria myself.

But my reasoning: all else being equal, an 11 and a bit year old government should have some difficulty and every other state/territory election since Howard’s demise has seen a big swing to opposition(or at least away from Labor)

If Brumby cops the same swing as Henderson (NT) he’s gone, if the same as Bligh (Qld) he loses the 2pp vote, if the same as Carpenter (WA) he just wins it, which is no guarantee of winning the most seats.

By: Voldemort

Voldemort — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 12:13:01 +0000

The Liberal Party have less chance of winning the Victorian election than the federal one next year.

The others are pretty much on the money.