January 5 2009 Mackerras Queensland pendulum

Last week Malcolm Mackerras had a piece in the Oz based on his post-redistribution Qld pendulum. (His prediction for 2009: an eleven seat Labor majority.)

Here is said pendulum (also 500kb PDF), artwork by the Oz.

Antony in Queensland

Antony Green has also done a huuge analysis of the redistribution for the Qld Parliament Library here. Summary here.

December 31 High-profile millionaire recruit quits politics

The Victorian upper house was a booby prize for Evan Thornley. Now he's leaving.

This sort of thing can be contagious.

December 27 This 'n that 

Me in Canberra Times, a republish of last week's Inside Story piece, here.

Malcolm Mackerras in Australian, on USA Presidential election result, here.

Election drought in 2009

There is, sadly, only one Australian federal or state/territory election due next year. That's in Queensland, where there will very likely be a huge swing to the LNP, which may or may not give them government. (I slightly favour a change of government.)

But 2010 will yield a bumper crop: Federal, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria. 

May 2009 pass quickly.

December 24 - 26

December 19 Me in Inside Story

On Mr Rudd's first year. Here. 

Newspoll in Victoria: 57 to 43

In the Oz yesterday; tables here.

As you know, Newspoll conducts its state polls at the same time as its federal ones. It waits until it has a large enough sample for each state to publish meaningful numbers. Victoria's come out bi-monthly and Queensland's are quarterly.

Queensland again

From this and this, we can therefore compare the Queensland state and federal voting intentions over the last three months. Like this:

Newspoll federal and state voting intentions October - December 2008

It is difficult to see how Newspoll could both get the same two party preferred numbers from these two sets of primary numbers. (The main difference is in Labor support.)

On Wednesday I suggested Newspoll had forgotten the 'O' in Queensland's OPV. But maybe they see OPV as favouring Labor. The amalgamated Queensland conservative party makes the prospects of three-cornered contests very low.

Mysterious.

December 17 Queensland Newspoll: 57 to 43

Queensland's is the second oldest government in the country, at a spritely ten years it's three and a half years younger than the New South Wales one. But surprisingly (to me) it continues to defy gravity. Today's Newspoll in the Oz says 57 to 43, from primary support of 45, 37 and 8 for the Greens. Tables here.

It is, however, difficult to see how Labor gets such a high two party preferred lead from those primary numbers. The last election in September 2006 looked like this:

Which after preferences was 55 to 45. 

Adjusting a little off from this similar set of numbers, we would expect today's Newspoll to give Labor a two party preferred vote of 54 or 55, rather than 57.

Is Newspoll again forgetting the 'O' in OPV?

December 16 The longest two years

That is how the 27 months until the next NSW election will feel for everyone concerned. Poor Barry O'Farrell will be hanging on for dear life. Nathan Rees might not make it either, and if John Robertson gets his wish and presides over the 2011 debacle that would contain some justice.

And of course the electors who have to wait three more Christmases.

Newspoll in the Oz says 59 to 41, but also look at the primary votes. Green support on 14 is a little more than half Labor's (26). Is this a first? 

Perhaps a recipe for several Green wins (in Labor seats) in 2011.

[Update: See Antony Green.]

December 15 About me: one chapter closes ...

I submitted my PhD thesis on Friday. Hoorah! Won't bore you with the gamut of my emotions. I feel pretty good about it.

Have things lined up in short term but not in the medium and long. 

Mumble needs much attention to bring it into the 21st century and beyond. A wholesale redesign, while retaining the personal touch. Would be nice to make a small quid from it.

And other things. Remuneration has moved up the list of priorities. 

December 12 Newspoll quarterly

Tables here. Labor's primary vote over October-December is about the same as the last election, the Coalition's is down by several and the Greens up by several. All washing through to 56 to 44 two party preferred. 

Last weekend's survey, the 59 to 41 one, accounts for a little over a fifth of the respondents.

Last Howard Years post (promise)

Thank God the show and its eggshell-thin narrative are over. 

The most interesting and seemingly candid interviewees in the final episode were Costello staffer Nikki Savva and a guy called John Kunkel who was a speechwriter for the then PM.

Of the staffers, Tony Smith was the worst value, probably because he is now a politician. Have sound-bite, will stay on message. (Smith's aping of his former boss's verbal mannerisms is also disconcerting.)

And what can you say about Graham Morris? A professional spinmeister and polished performer who knows how to formulate a phrase and push a line but is never actually going to tell you anything. Perfect for this show.

The mystery is how such formidable production talent could come up with something so shrivelled. It seems to have the hallmarks of fussy meddling from on high, but ABC Managing Director Mark Scott reckons he had no input into the script. 

December 9 Newspoll 59 to 41; Joe firms Newspoll today is especially diabolical for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition. Tables here, Dennis here. Often on this site I posit 'maybes'. Last month's on Joe Hockey was an example, along lines of 'you never know'.

But now I'm going to chance my arm. 

I reckon that unless there's an early election, Joe Hockey will be federal opposition leader at the next poll. He must be: by process of elimination, if Malcolm goes, who else is there? Unless I'm forgetting somebody. (Julie Bishop's done her dash.)

December 8 Italian Diaspora fights back

Here.

December 5 What the tide brings in

Every landslide change of government includes a few 'ohmyGod!' seats, ones that no-one in their wildest dreams thought could change hands. Consequently, the new parliament contains a few odd new creatures, because the opposition candidates in such electorates tend to be, well, the sort of people you put in seats you believe you have no hope of winning.

Dawson, in Queensland, was probably the biggest surprise of the 2007 federal election. Enough said.

December 4 Politician caught telling whopper!

Labor heavyweight Graham Richardson was one of the biggest bullshit artists Australian politics has ever produced. Just about everything he said in public was designed to advance people's view of him and his influence, but he was very good at it, feigning a kind of self-deprecating candidness.

Peter Costello, on the other hand, is one of the least accomplished liars in politics. His acting skills are reminiscent of Andrew Peacock's: rudimentary. John Howard is rather skilled, although not in the Richardson league.

But Howard told a preposterous porky on The Howard Years on Monday which the show, naturally, let through to the keeper. 

Liberal 2001 campaign launch

Anyone who knows anything about politics knows that campaign launches are events that are scripted to within an inch of their lives. The 2001 Liberal launch included the prime ministerial phrase 'We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come', which then went on to appear in advertisements and billboards right up to election day. 

Liberal backgrounders used to claim it originated from a Palestinian-Australian woman in a focus-group (that was always a little suspect) but on Monday night Mr Howard informed the nation that he thought it up on the night. Yes, while he was up on the podium, it just came to him, because he doesn't research, script or test his words. [Update: exact form of words here; search for 'I came up with that line on the spot.']

This is the sort of childish lie you only get away with when everyone around is too embarrassed or polite to say anything. And The Howard Years producers were very polite about it. Pollster Mark Textor was interviewed about the phrase, but only about three of his words made it to the screen.

To me this is symptomatic of one of the show's weaknesses: its determination not to cast the former PM in bad light. I suspect someone up high went through the script with a razor: Gerard Henderson will be watching this, taking notes, we must not be seen to bash Howard.

All politicians lie, but it is not the job of documentary makers to cover them up. This was an important formation of words in our political history, and if other Liberals had different versions of its origin, that would have made for more interesting television.

(Can't find Textor interview on the show's website.) 

December 3 Two two-termers? These two guys were high-profile 2004 recruits. One of them, I believe, will lose the Liberal leadership before the next election (unless it's early).

The other does not appear to be enjoying himself. The Liberals are much better at handling high-flying blow-ins than Labor, which is institutionally rather hopeless at it. It seems that Peter isn't allowed to scratch his head without first getting permission from the kiddies in the PM's office. That would be depressing.

And would Malcolm stay if he lost the leadership and had no prospect of regaining it in the near future? There's only one job he's really interested in. 

Neither is the type to hang around for the superannuation. From Malcolm's point of view, there's lots more fun and money to be had living in Sydney, buying and selling stuff. For Peter, there must be lots of great waves to catch, music to make and causes to promote. 

So two vacancies in neighbouring Sydney seats in 2010 perhaps?