Kevin Rudd is threatening the states with a constitutional referendum on health. Anyone with the patience to wade through this impenetrable sludge (my 20 year old honours thesis) will know the following:
A constitutional referendum needs bipartisan support to have a chance of success.
If it doesn’t receive federal opposition support, and it is held mid-term (ie not concurrent with an election) it will be walloped.
If it doesn’t get bipartisan support and is held with an election, it will still fail - but respectably.
One corollary is that the actual content of questions is secondary. Referendums held together on wildly different topics usually get similar levels of support, for example.
There have been 44 referendums overall, 8 of which succeeded. Below are all the ones opposed by federal oppositions, ranked by descending national ‘yes’ vote. None was successful, although three received majority support but not a majority of states.
Constitutional referendums opposed by federal opposition, in decreasing order of national vote
| Yes vote% |
year |
Question |
Govt |
With election? |
| 50.6 |
1984 |
Terms of Senators |
Labor |
Yes |
| 50.6 |
1946 |
Organised Marketing of Primary Products |
Labor |
Yes |
| 50.3 |
1946 |
Industrial Employment |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.8 |
1913 |
Trusts |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.4 |
1951 |
Powers To Deal With Communists&Communism |
Liberal/CP |
No |
| 49.4 |
1913 |
Trade & Commerce |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.3 |
1913 |
Corporations |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.3 |
1913 |
Industrial Matters |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.3 |
1913 |
Nationalisation of Monopolies |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.1 |
1913 |
Railway Disputes |
Labor |
Yes |
| 49.0 |
1910 |
Finance |
Fusion |
Yes |
| 48.3 |
1974 |
Simultaneous Elections |
Labor |
Yes |
| 48.0 |
1974 |
Mode of Altering The Constitution |
Labor |
Yes |
| 47.2 |
1974 |
Democratic Elections |
Labor |
Yes |
| 47.1 |
1984 |
Interchange of Powers |
Labor |
Yes |
| 46.9 |
1974 |
Local Government Elections |
Labor |
Yes |
| 46.0 |
1944 |
Post-war Reconstruction & Dem Rights |
Labor |
No |
| 43.8 |
1973 |
Prices |
Labor |
No |
| 42.8 |
1926 |
Essential Services |
Nat/CP |
No |
| 40.7 |
1948 |
Rents & Prices |
Labor |
No |
| 39.9 |
1911 |
Monopolies |
Labor |
No |
| 39.4 |
1911 |
Legislative Services |
Labor |
No |
| 37.4 |
1988 |
Fair Elections |
Labor |
No |
| 34.4 |
1973 |
Incomes |
Labor |
No |
| 33.5 |
1988 |
Local Government |
Labor |
No |
| 32.8 |
1988 |
Parliamentary Terms |
Labor |
No |
| 30.6 |
1988 |
Rights & Freedsoms |
Labor |
No |
There are patterns. Labor is nearly always in government. (A list of the eight successful referendums, by contrast, contains just one Labor entry.) As mentioned, referendums held together stick together in the list.
But the starkest pattern is that referendums concurrent with elections are at top, mid-term ones at bottom.
You could say that a referendum not supported by the opposition has a better chance of success if held with an election. Support tends to split along party lines, and if the government does very well it might drag the referendum with it as well.
But there is something else. It may be that these referendums also suppress government votes.
The last ones with elections were in 1984, 1974 and 1946. The 1984 one saw a closer election result than most expected. Perhaps the same with 1974.
It’s not something you could “prove”. But it’s possible that if Thing A lifts up Thing B, Thing B also drags down Thing A.
Perhaps, you think, health is so important that it will transcend all this? Don’t bet on it. Even if Tony Abbott wasn’t dedicated to opposing everything, the Coalition would oppose this. They always* do.
Then the logic of referendums will predominate.
Be careful with that referendum, Mr Rudd.
*The one Labor-initiated referendum that received bipartisan support, in 1946, was successfull.