Bolt from the blue

THIS afternoon a strange thing happened on my Twitter stream. I started receiving angry tweets about something I’d written at 1:13pm yesterday (Saturday).

In addition someone found my email address and sent a note that I’m a “low life scumbag … you and your fellow left wing/Green ratbags have absolutely no shame … You should be ashamed of yourself and your employer should sack you.”

“Scumbag” got a mention in the odd tweet too. Most of them were from people I’d never heard from before, who don’t follow me and who I don’t follow. I’ve retweeted most of them, so you can see them on my account if you could be bothered wading through.

Then I worked out what happened. That nice Andrew Bolt had given me a plug on the country’s most widely-read blog.

Now continued here.

A post …

just because ….

Election 2013 census table gallery

Apart from archives there’s nothing new to see at this site since I started blogging at the Oz.

Except for the federal election census and seat table gallery. Check it out here.

Mumble has moved to the Oz


Mumble moves to the Oz

Dear Mumble-readers, Mumble moves today to the Australian. It will be a mainly online gig, doing the kind of stuff I’ve done here but more frantically and often.

I love youse all, thanks for indulging me at this place and I invite you to continue at the new one. If only to judge if/how the piper-payer calls the tune.

New site here. Comments here closed; any comments there please. (They will eventually appear, just working that out.)

Do not adjust your set

Great news for NSW premier in latest Newspoll

Kristina Keneally is still preferred premier in the latest NSW Newspoll in the Oz!

Irony on It’s time to roll Barry O’Farrell who languishes on both the preferred premier and approval ratings. Barry can’t win on these numbers. Irony off

(Oh, and the Coalition is ahead in the arcane “voting intentions” measure 61 to 39.)

And another thing: tweets to Kevin

You’d have read about the former PM (and wife) continuing to tweet. If you’re wondering why, you can see the tweets that have been sent his way, including many nice ones, here. [Update: oh, it doesn't work. Try going here and entering @kevinruddpm into the search box.]

Westpoll says federal WA vote of 54.5 to 45.5

Pollbludger has the info.

Newspoll says 53 to 47

Kind of snuck up; in the Oz here. Up from 52 to 48.

Like the others except Nielsen, it shows a large increase in Labor’s primary support at expense of Greens and others, and small one in two party preferred. As happens after leadership changes, whether they turn out to be a good or bad idea. (Am repeating self, yes.)

Dennis Shanahan puts the argument, as Peter van Onselen and others also have, that primary vote and preferred PM are the only things that wot matter.

No doubt that’s what the party “hardheads” believe, but that doesn’t make it true. They believe all sorts of things.

It’s back to the future with western Sydney

The new prime minister, Julia Gillard, is a creature of the Labor Party.  She is from Melbourne (before that Adelaide) but apparently like all good ALP operators has an obsession with western Sydney.

In signalling her shift in population policy (or emphasis or whatever), she yacked about that part of the world. This is a very Labor thing to do, especially from opposition.

Throughout the Howard years, the ALP held about 80% of seats in what could be described as that area. When winning government in 2007 they took a total of – wait for it – two new seats there.

In 2010, after redistribution, more seats are in play in the general region: Macarthur (Liberal-held but now a notional margin of 0.5 percent for Labor) Greenway (Lib-held but notional 5.7 percent Labor) and Lindsay (Labor by 6.3). Go further south and there’s winnable Hughes (0.5 Lib). Update: let’s throw in provincial Macquarie, Labor by 0.3 percent.

Still, the way Rudd won in ‘07 was to concentrate on that category of people called Australians. You might have heard of those: from many walks of life, in the main outward-looking. A decent two party preferred majority of votes from this component pretty well guarantees you a majority of the 150 electorates in the country.

But we’re returning to the self-defeating idea that Labor’s support begins in western Sydney and if they make it big enough there it kind of overflows into the rest of the country.

This was a hallmark of the Crean and Latham oppositions; they carried on about that part of the world alot. It’s a very machineman thing to do, but it doesn’t work. Some of the biggest swings away from Latham in ‘04 were in outer western Sydney, as were some of the biggest to Rudd in ‘07. Yet every utterance of Latham’s was conceived with those people in mind.

Check out the forest, Julia.