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January 5 2009
Mackerras Queensland pendulum
Last week Malcolm Mackerras had a
piece in the Oz based on his post-redistribution Qld pendulum. (His
prediction for 2009: an eleven seat Labor majority.)
Here is said
pendulum (also 500kb PDF), artwork by the Oz.
Antony in
Queensland
Antony Green has also done a huuge analysis of
the redistribution for the Qld Parliament Library here.
Summary here.
December 31 High-profile
millionaire recruit quits politics
The Victorian upper house was a booby prize for Evan
Thornley. Now he's leaving.
This sort of thing can be contagious.
December 27 This
'n that
Me in Canberra Times, a republish of last
week's Inside Story piece, here.
Malcolm Mackerras in Australian, on USA
Presidential election result, here.
Election
drought in 2009
There is, sadly, only one Australian federal or
state/territory election due
next year. That's in Queensland, where there will very likely be a huge swing to
the LNP,
which may or may not give them government. (I slightly favour a change of
government.)
But 2010 will yield a bumper crop: Federal, South
Australia, Tasmania and Victoria.
May 2009 pass quickly.
December 19 Me
in Inside Story
On Mr Rudd's first year. Here.
Newspoll
in Victoria: 57
to 43
As you know, Newspoll conducts its state polls at the
same time as its federal ones. It waits until it has a large enough sample for each state to publish meaningful numbers. Victoria's
come out bi-monthly and Queensland's are quarterly.
Queensland
again
From this
and this,
we can therefore compare the Queensland state and federal voting intentions over
the last three months. Like this:
Newspoll
federal and state voting intentions October - December 2008
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Federal
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49
|
37
|
7
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7
|
57
|
43
|
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State
|
45
|
37
|
8
|
10
|
57
|
43
|
It is difficult to see how Newspoll could both get the
same two party preferred numbers from these two sets of primary numbers. (The
main difference is in Labor support.)
On Wednesday I suggested Newspoll had forgotten the
'O' in Queensland's OPV. But maybe they see OPV as favouring Labor. The
amalgamated Queensland conservative party makes the prospects of three-cornered
contests very low.
Mysterious.
December 17 Queensland
Newspoll: 57
to 43
Queensland's is the second oldest government in the
country, at a spritely ten years it's three and a half years younger than the
New South Wales one. But surprisingly (to me) it continues to defy gravity.
Today's Newspoll in the Oz
says 57 to 43, from
primary support of 45, 37
and 8 for the Greens. Tables here.
It is, however, difficult to see how Labor gets such a
high two party preferred lead from those primary numbers. The last election in
September 2006 looked like this:
Which after preferences was 55
to 45.
Adjusting a little off from this similar set of
numbers, we would expect today's Newspoll to give Labor a two party preferred
vote of 54 or 55,
rather than 57.
Is Newspoll again forgetting the 'O' in OPV?
December 16 The
longest two years
That is how the 27 months until the next NSW election
will feel for everyone concerned. Poor Barry O'Farrell will be hanging on for
dear life. Nathan Rees might not make it either, and if John Robertson gets his
wish and presides over the 2011 debacle that would contain some justice.
And of course the electors who have to wait three more
Christmases.
Newspoll
in the Oz says 59 to 41,
but also look at the primary votes. Green support on 14
is a little more than half Labor's (26). Is this a
first?
Perhaps a recipe for several Green wins (in Labor
seats) in 2011.
December 15 About
me: one chapter closes ...
I submitted my PhD thesis on Friday. Hoorah! Won't
bore you with the gamut of my emotions. I feel pretty good about
it.
Have things lined up in short term
but not in the medium and long.
Mumble needs much attention to bring it into the 21st
century and beyond. A wholesale redesign, while retaining the personal touch. Would be nice to make a small quid from
it.
And other things. Remuneration has moved up the list
of priorities.
December 12 Newspoll
quarterly
Tables here. Labor's primary vote
over October-December is about the same as the last election, the Coalition's
is down by several and the Greens up by several. All washing through to 56
to 44 two party preferred.
Last weekend's survey, the 59
to 41 one,
accounts for a little over a fifth of the respondents.
Last Howard
Years post (promise)
Thank God the show and its eggshell-thin narrative are
over.
The most interesting and seemingly candid interviewees in
the final episode were Costello staffer Nikki Savva and a guy called John Kunkel
who was a speechwriter for the then PM.
Of the staffers, Tony Smith was the worst value, probably
because he is now a politician. Have sound-bite, will stay on message. (Smith's
aping of his former boss's verbal mannerisms is also disconcerting.)
And what can you say about Graham Morris? A
professional spinmeister and polished performer who knows how to formulate a
phrase and push a line but is never actually going to tell you anything.
Perfect for this show.
The mystery is how such formidable production
talent could come up with something so shrivelled. It seems to have the hallmarks of fussy meddling from on
high, but ABC Managing Director Mark Scott reckons he had
no input into the script.
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December 9 Newspoll
59
to 41;
Joe firms
Newspoll today is especially diabolical for
Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition. Tables here,
Dennis here.
Often on this site I posit 'maybes'. Last month's on Joe
Hockey was an example, along lines of 'you never know'. |
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But now I'm going to chance my arm.
I reckon that unless there's an early election, Joe
Hockey will be federal opposition leader at the next poll. He must be: by
process of elimination, if Malcolm goes, who else is there? Unless I'm
forgetting somebody. (Julie Bishop's done her dash.)
December 8 Italian
Diaspora fights back
December 5 What
the tide brings in
Every landslide change of government includes a few 'ohmyGod!' seats, ones
that no-one in their wildest dreams thought could change hands. Consequently,
the new parliament contains a few odd new creatures, because the opposition
candidates in such electorates tend to be, well, the sort of people you put in
seats you believe you have no hope of winning.
Dawson,
in Queensland, was probably the biggest surprise of the 2007 federal election.
Enough said.
December 4 Politician
caught telling whopper!
Labor heavyweight Graham Richardson was one of the biggest bullshit artists
Australian politics has ever produced. Just about everything he said in public was
designed to advance people's view of him and his influence, but he was very good
at it, feigning a kind of self-deprecating candidness.
Peter Costello, on the other hand, is one of the least accomplished liars in
politics. His acting skills are reminiscent of Andrew Peacock's: rudimentary.
John Howard is rather skilled, although not in the Richardson league.
But Howard told a preposterous porky on The Howard Years on Monday
which the show, naturally, let through to the keeper.
Liberal 2001
campaign launch
Anyone who knows anything about politics knows that campaign launches are
events that are scripted to within an inch of their lives. The 2001 Liberal
launch included the prime ministerial phrase 'We will decide who comes to this
country and the circumstances in which they come', which then went on to appear
in advertisements and billboards right up to election day.
Liberal backgrounders used to claim it originated from a
Palestinian-Australian woman in a focus-group (that was always a little suspect)
but on Monday night Mr Howard informed the nation that he thought it up on the
night. Yes, while he was up on the podium, it just came to him, because he
doesn't research, script or test his words. [Update: exact form of words here;
search for 'I came up with that line on the spot.']
This is the sort of childish lie you only get away with when everyone around
is too
embarrassed or polite to say anything. And The Howard Years producers
were very polite about it. Pollster Mark Textor was interviewed about
the phrase, but only about three of his words made it to the screen.
To me this is symptomatic of one of the show's weaknesses: its determination
not to cast the former PM in bad light. I suspect someone up high went through
the script with a razor: Gerard Henderson will be watching this, taking notes,
we must not be seen to bash Howard.
All politicians lie, but it is not the job of documentary makers to cover
them up. This was an important formation of words in our political
history, and if other Liberals had different versions of its
origin, that would have made for more interesting television.
(Can't find Textor interview on the show's website.)
December
3 Two two-termers?
These two guys were high-profile 2004 recruits. One of them, I
believe, will lose the Liberal leadership before the next election (unless
it's early).
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The other does not appear to be enjoying himself. The
Liberals are much better at handling high-flying blow-ins than Labor, which is
institutionally rather hopeless at it. It seems that Peter isn't allowed to scratch his head
without first getting permission from the kiddies in the PM's office. That would
be depressing.
And would Malcolm stay if he lost the
leadership and had no prospect of regaining it in the near future? There's only
one job he's really interested in.
Neither is the type to hang around for the
superannuation. From Malcolm's point of view, there's lots more fun and money to be had living in Sydney,
buying and selling stuff. For Peter, there must be lots of great waves to catch, music to
make and causes to promote.
So two vacancies in neighbouring Sydney seats in 2010
perhaps?
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